The A-share Year of the Dragon is off to a good start. On the one hand, the sentiment of Hong Kong and U.S. stocks during the Spring Festival was not bad.
On the other hand, there is still a certain inertia in the pre-holiday continuous **, combined with the credit data in January exceeding expectations and the change of management, the market ** still has the power to be long.
On the disk, the SORA concept was born, but in fact it is still the AIGC line.
*The SORA concept, as well as industries that are strongly related to Spring Festival consumption such as tourism and movies, will have more performance opportunities, which are mainly driven by data.
However, I think the most important thing for ** is the continuity of **, and whether to stabilize expectations is the key.
At present, the market is still in a fundamental failure scenario, and it depends more on the technical and financial aspects.
Especially after a continuous **, both the Shanghai Composite and the HS300 have encountered ** pressure after breaking through the short-term downward trend.
Structurally, the ** on February 19 was also dominated by small and micro cap stocks, and the rise of CSI 2000 significantly exceeded that of blue chips. Then the high-dividend stocks represented by the "Zhongzitou" continue to be strong.
My observation is that the money-making effect of utility assets, such as the prosperity of coal, is actually linked to supply-side reform and thermal power.
Under the general cycle of weakening real estate, the gap between land finance and real estate tax, water, electricity and coal may bear part of the pressure through price increases.
In the general direction, standing on the eve of the counter-cyclical and the turning point of the cycle, it is still necessary to pay attention to the assets that benefit from inflation, and we need to thank the low valuation of the current market.
Macro
Compared with the trend of A-shares, the macro is a more interesting part, and the core is still the Fed's interest rate cut expectations.
However, due to several good economic data in January, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations continue to be postponed.
The market is currently pricing in about three Fed rate cuts of 25 basis points each time this year (the current Federal** interest rate target range is 5.).25%-5.5%).
Deutsche Bank's view is even more frightening, even pointing to the possibility that the Fed will not cut interest rates this year.
2024 happens to be the first year in the United States, with inflation and unemployment as the two core economic indicators.
For now, as long as the U.S. economy is OK, the Fed may need to find a balance between inflation and unemployment, and the unemployment rate may be more critical.
It is also easy to understand that inflation only affects the quality of life, and unemployment is a question of whether there is a life or not.
But on the other hand, the Fed's interest rate cut is linked to the PBoC's monetary policy space. It is precisely because of this that I think the expectations for A-shares in 2024 cannot be too high, and it is still mainly based on the **.
Having said that, as long as it can stabilize within a range, there is never a shortage of opportunities for speculation in A-shares, which is determined by the structure of investors.
commodity
* Mainly depends on the Fed's movements, with the postponement of interest rate cut expectations, the international gold price returned to the bottom of the previous platform, around $2,050.
Oil prices depend on the demand of the global economy, but the United States is now at the end of the cycle, China's cycle has not yet begun, Europe is still at war, and demand mainly depends on India and Southeast Asia to support.
Geographically
Russia has seized the important town of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine, and hopes for a truce are growing.
The EU's Red Sea escort operation will be launched on February 19 and is planned to last for a year, which will have an impact on the shipping sector, which was hot in the early stage.
Argentina** ran a fiscal surplus in January.
February** Dynamic Incentive Program