First, the spot
The progress of corn grain sales in the main domestic producing areas has been more than half, and the medium and large feed enterprises have locked some overdue rice, imported corn and other contracts in advance, and the feed consumption has entered the off-season after the holiday, and the enterprises are mostly in a wait-and-see state, and the replenishment is more cautious. Some growers in the northeast began to sell grain one after another, ** tighter than in the early stage, the northern port morning collection volume of more than 20,000 tons, with the increase in the number of buyers, ** merchants raised the price of purchase. Beigang has a boosting effect on the southern port, but downstream enterprises hold more imported corn inventories, and the replenishment mainly takes a wait-and-see attitude, and the spot transaction is at a low level. The domestic corn spot ** is basically stable, with small local fluctuations. Last week's cooling weather in the Northeast region tide grain storage conditions improved, in addition to Jilin grain storage announced the list of two grain storage depots, the market on the increase in the purchase of news increased, the market atmosphere improved, the first business began to build a small number of warehouses, the enthusiasm for acquisition has improved, but downstream enterprises still maintain the strategy of on-demand procurement, some enterprises have a certain enthusiasm to replenish the warehouse, dry grain delivery speed accelerated, ** to stabilize the strong. The Spring Festival festival atmosphere in the Huanghuai production area of North China gradually dissipated, the impact of rain and snow weather weakened, and the road transportation was smooth. Grassroots corn trading has gradually recovered, grain circulation has increased, the arrival volume of enterprises in front of the door has increased, and downstream enterprises have adjusted according to the arrival situation in front of the door.
Second, the first aspect
On February 23, 2024, the CBOT-March corn contract closed 625 cents at 39975 cents bushel. Because of the huge amount of corn in the United States.
On February 26, 2024, the opening price of the main corn ** contract C2405 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) was 2459 yuan, the ** price was 2460 yuan, up 1 yuan, the highest ** 2479 yuan, the lowest price was 2452 yuan, and the settlement price was 2465 yuan, with a total trading volume of 674979 lots and 958269 positions.
Third, focus on hot spots in the later stage
Weather changes, procurement mentality, feed mill strategy, domestic policy, international and domestic corn market, purchase of production areas, imported corn to Hong Kong, disease flow, livestock and poultry products, changes in international freight, international economic situation, wheat changes, feed demand, weather impact on corn, etc.
Fourth, related news
1. As of February 13, the EU-27 cereals imported 20,195,856 tonnes in 2023 24 (which began on July 1), down 27% from 2022 23 and 27% year-on-year last week.
2. As of February 13, cereal exports from the EU27 in 2023 24 (which began on July 1) were 28,641,233 tons, down 2% year-on-year, compared with a year-on-year decrease of 4% in the previous week.
3. The Latvian parliament passed a resolution banning the import of agricultural products from Russia and Belarus, making it the first EU country to ban imports due to Russia's military activities.
4. The condition of the 2023 24 Argentine corn crop improved in the week ended Feb. 21, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE).
5. Ukraine's grain exports as of February 23, that is, in the 2023 24 year (which began in July), were 28.15 million tons, down 8.8 million tons from 30.79 million tons in the same period of the previous year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine6%, compared to a year-on-year decrease of 109%。
6. As of February 15, the 2023 24 U.S. corn export shipment to China (mainland) was 1.7 million tons, compared with 4.06 million tons in the same period last year.
7. With the increase in production, Argentina's corn exports this season are expected to increase by 53% over the previous year. However, the exchange warned that corn export revenues are estimated to have risen by only 20% from the previous year, reaching 76600 million US dollars, far less than the increase in the number of exports.
8. On February 26, the two-way bidding transaction results of corn purchase and sale of Inner Mongolia Branch of China Grain Storage Network: 11,600 tons of corn were planned to be traded, and 4,320 tons were actually traded, with a turnover rate of 37%.
9. On February 26, the two-way bidding transaction results of corn purchase and sale of China Grain Storage Beijing Branch: 23,884 tons of corn were planned to be traded, and 10,006 tons were actually traded, with a turnover rate of 42%.
10. On February 26, China Grain Storage Network Zhejiang Branch corn bidding procurement results: 503,000 tons of corn were planned to be purchased, and 5,000 tons were actually traded, with a turnover rate of 10%.
11. On February 26, China Grain Storage Network Guizhou Branch corn bidding procurement results: 2,000 tons of corn were planned to be purchased, and 2,000 tons were actually traded, with a turnover rate of 100%.
12. On February 26, the corn auction sales results of Xi'an Branch of China Grain Reserves: 5,262 tons of corn were planned to be sold, and 5,262 tons were actually traded, with a turnover rate of 100%.
13. On February 26, the corn auction sales results of China Grain Storage Shanxi Branch: 5,723 tons of corn were planned to be sold, and 5,723 tons were actually traded, with a turnover rate of 100%.
14. On February 26, China Grain Storage Network Jilin Branch corn auction sales results: 21,328 tons of corn were planned to be sold, and 21,328 tons were actually traded, with a turnover rate of 100%.
Fifth, the market outlook analysis
In February, China's corn was still sufficient, and the enthusiasm of growers and merchants in the producing areas was still high, which was still negative for the overall situation. Stocking before the Spring Festival has ended, the actual impact on corn ** is obviously limited, predicting that most of the time in February, the production area of corn ** overall is still weak trend is more likely, after late February, there is a short-term ** tendency to exist because of the demand side before the Spring Festival stocking is limited, there is a relatively concentrated replenishment of the impact after the holiday. Due to the large increase in the import of substitute raw materials, the pressure on corn in 2024 is huge, and it is difficult to predict that the year will improve significantly.
Disclaimer. This article**: The articles, data and other content published by the feed industry information network are purely the author's personal views, for investors' reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. Investors act accordingly at their own risk. Unauthorized shall not**, if suspected of infringing your copyright, please contact us to delete, thank you!