This coldest winter window is a foregone conclusion, so will this market lull affect the turnover of the summer market in the future? This must be a concern for all fans. From all angles, these concerns are completely unnecessary. The summer window of 2024 will be another hot transfer window.
The reporter reported coldlyThe Premier League was hit hard by the Financial Fair Play Act, and all winter window consumption stepped on the brakes. Although the investment in the big four leagues of the continent has bottomed out**, there is no real big deal. This coldest winter window is also a foregone conclusion, so will this market indifference affect the turnover of the summer market in the future? After all, this summer is a big year for football with the European Championship and the Copa America, and the summer market will have a high turnover as usual.
In this regard, Professor Wilson, an expert in British football finance, believes that despite the constraints of the Financial Fair Play Act, the five major leagues will usher in a "big investment cycle" this summer.
In addition to the "rigid needs" such as the major giants to increase their influence, compete for trophies and team metabolism, the five major leagues in the summer market also have additional income from the Saudi league to invest. To a large extent, this could offset the investment crunch brought about by the Fiscal Fair Play Act. Moreover, the giants also have bonuses and broadcast fee sharing brought about by the Champions League restructuring, and the Premier League has optimistic expectations of a surge in revenue from new broadcast contracts. Combined with the above factors, this year's summer window may not increase significantly compared with last year, but it is still possible to maintain the same magnitude.
Unlike the mid-season winter window, which is in the middle of the season, the summer window is the main investment market for the big five leagues. Led by Mbappe this summer, there are a number of superstars who may generate ultra-high transaction volume, which is enough to revitalize the investment amount of the entire market. Real Madrid have been waiting for Mbappe for two years and this summer is the last chance for both sides. Although Mbappe's signing does not incur a nominal transfer fee, Real Madrid will have to pay at least 60 million euros to the Mbappe family for a signing fee, and the departure of the French superstar will also save at least 100 million euros in salary expenses for Grand Paris, which can free up huge salary space for Grand Paris to buy top stars.
Professor Wilson of Sheffield Harlem University in the United Kingdom believes that the UK's PSR rules may allow Premier League clubs to be careful and fully consider investing as much as possible in the summer market without violating the rules. Among them, Manchester City and Chelsea, which have been closely targeted, are difficult to make a big introduction, but Manchester United's new shareholder Sir Ratcliffe must make a big move to support Manchester United to regain the championship competitiveness. Moreover, Manchester United and Arsenal are in a very good financial situation, far from the red line of the PSR rules, and have enough investment to improve their strength.
In addition, Liverpool's financial situation is also ideal. Jurgen Klopp's departure means the beginning of a new era, and the arrival of a new coach will inevitably require large-scale investment. Moreover, Liverpool also has an income advantage that is difficult for other giants to have: Salah is very likely to join the Saudi league in the summer, and his transfer income can be used as an investment in Liverpool's football market**. In this regard, giants such as Real Madrid and Manchester United have the resources of balloon stars who can earn huge income from the Saudi league. The periodic change of coaches of Europe's top giants, as well as the inevitable metabolism of the team, form a rigid demand for investment in the ball market, which is the basic market investment market in the summer market.
Compared with the superstar resources that are difficult to provide in the winter market, the star resources in the summer are abundant enough, which is the basic element for the summer market to continue to maintain its popularity. In addition to Mbappe, the stars who could incur high transfer fees this summer are Salah, Osimhen, Wirtz, Kvaratskhelia and FDe Jong, Araujo, Alfonso Davies, Paqueta, Mikasa, Palhinha, Jonatan David, etc. Many of them have the potential of 100 million euros, at least to more than 70 million. Osimhen was a favorite in the ball market as early as last summer, and although he had just completed a contract extension, as long as the bid was high enough, there was no reason for the Germans not to sell. Paqueta and Palinha were also targeted by Premier League giants last year and are likely to complete a deal this summer.
Of course, the European Championship and Copa America in the summer will be an important value reference for some of these stars.
The last European Championship produced heavyweight deals such as Grealish, Romelu Lukaku, Sancho, Ben White, Upamecano, Abraham, Varane and Gvardiol. And the madness of last summer's market was largely a lag in the effects of the first winter World Cup. What's more, there are two big investors in Chelsea and the Saudi league that have entered the market strongly, Rice, Caicedo, Bellingham, Kane, Muani, Gvardiol, Neymar, Havertz, Hojlen, Szoboszlai, Mount, Tonali, Lavia, NNunez, Nkunku, Doku, Ugarte, Malcom, Otavio, these large transactions with a transfer fee of more than 60 million euros are not only related to the World Cup, but also closely related to the influx of North American capital and Saudi capital.
The European football industry, which continues to be held high by the European Championship and Copa America, will inevitably generate higher incomes, and even if it is bound by the Financial Fair Play Act, it will create more capital space for investment superstars. According to the latest Deloitte Football Wealth List, the top 20 clubs in 2022 23 earned a total of 10.5 billion euros, a 14% surge from the previous season. Commercial revenue of €4.4 billion was a record, making it the club's largest revenue for the first time since the 2015 16 season. Hewlett-Packard has just become Real Madrid's sleeve advertisement, coupled with the fact that many sponsorship contracts of Premier League clubs have been renewed, and the continuous growth of the commercial income of the five major league giants is predictable.
In addition, North American financing in La Liga and Ligue 1 has also increased the club's earnings. Last season, Citibank's CVC agreement with Ligue 1 added 1200 million euros, last season Real Madrid, Manchester City, Paris and Barcelona 4 clubs exceeded 800 million euros, Manchester United, Bayern and Liverpool are in the 700 million euro range, Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal at 500 million euros. In particular, the significant growth of domestic and overseas TV rights in the Premier League in the next few years, as well as the full development of the North American market brought about by the North American World Cup, will provide sufficient revenue growth for the major giants. In turn, the investment in the summer market will also be proportional to it.
The conservative Bundesliga and Serie A have been unable to sit still, and both the Bundesliga and Serie A have begun to consider receiving more capital injections, through the future of up to 8% of the operating rights in exchange for real income returns. Bayern Munich raised the maximum amount of transfer transactions approved by the Supervisory Board from 25 million euros to 50 million euros, which also guarantees more freedom for the club to bring in more signings in the summer market. All of the above positive factors in the football industry are reasons to remain optimistic about the amount of investment in the summer market of the five major leagues. Although the Financial Fair Play Act will tie the hands of some giants to a certain extent, on the whole, the competition for superstars and superstars will not be greatly curtailed by the summer giants. After all, investing in a superstar can lead to a better return on income in itself.