Author: Xu Jingbo, President of Asia News Agency.
The Kishida cabinet is facing its biggest crisis to date, as the main factions of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, including the Kishida faction, have been searched by the Tokyo District Public Prosecutor's Office's special search headquarters because of the political funding scandal, and the financial leaders have been prosecuted. This scandal directly led to a significant drop in the approval rating of Kishida's cabinet.
At the same time, on New Year's Day and New Year's Day, 7Level 2**, this one has killed more than 200 people and many houses collapsed or were severely damaged. ** Accusing the Kishida cabinet of failing to respond to the disaster and leaving the victims hungry and cold in the cold night.
According to a number of surveys in Japan, the embattled Kishida Cabinet has fallen below 20% and its disapproval rate has exceeded 70%.
There is a saying in Japan that 30% is the life-and-death line of the cabinet's approval rating, and falling below 30% means that the regime has entered a danger zone.
Now, the approval rating of the Kishida cabinet has fallen below 20% instead of 30%, and theoretically, Prime Minister Kishida is about to face a forced crisis.
Some in Japan believe that Kishida's most dignified resignation will come after the passage of the new annual budget in March. Because the most controversial among the ruling and opposition parties, the most fierce containment is the budget. Once the budget is passed, Kishida will be considered to be done.
Although the society is telling Kishida's fortune, it is surprising that as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, various forces within the party have not called for Kishida's **, and even the opposition has remained silent.
Why is this strange phenomenon happening?
The biggest reason is that Kishida has established a "Liberal Democratic Party Reform Headquarters" to dissolve and separate various factions and eliminate opposition forces with the help of the funding scandal. Whoever jumps out against him now is likely to be the target of repression.
Second, there is no strong politician in the LDP who can replace Kishida.
Although major surveys show that the majority of the public hopes that the young former Minister of the Environment, Shinjiro, the former Secretary General of the Liberal Democratic Party, Shigeru Ishiba, and the current Minister in charge of Digital Affairs, Taro Kono, can replace Kishida as the next Prime Minister of Japan. However, Japan's prime minister is not elected by direct vote of the people, but in fact by votes of members of the Diet within the Liberal Democratic Party and local organizations, because if you are elected president of the Liberal Democratic Party, you can become the prime minister.
Koizumi, Ishipo, and Kono are known as the "Koishigawa Union", and Shinjiro Koizumi is the son of former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who is only in his early 40s and belongs to the representative of the Shaozhuang faction. Because the edge is too exposed, some people like it and some don't. The biggest problem is that the "** faction", the largest force he supports in the party, was disbanded because of the political funding scandal. Without the support of the LDP's largest faction, Koizumi's chances of victory became slim.
Shigeru Ishiba has been ready to compete for the prime minister's throne with ** many times, but the faction he leads belongs to "small and micro enterprises" in the party, and he has had many festivals with former prime minister Taro Aso, who is currently the vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and Motegi Mitsutoshi, secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, so even if he runs, he will not get the support of the majority of the party.
Taro Kono likes to play Facebook and Twitter, so he is very popular with young and middle-aged Japanese people, but he himself belongs to the "Aso faction", and he has already said in advance: "It is impossible for Kono to get out of the horse", Aso has always thought that Kono is popular, but lacks calmness.
Koishikawa United "was wiped out, and most of the Japanese society ** believed that the current secretary general, Motegi, was qualified to succeed Kishida, because he graduated from the Kennedy School of Harvard University, served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Minister of Defense and the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, and he was also very calm. Originally, he played a game of chess exquisitely, but he didn't expect that Kishida took the lead in disbanding the faction, and as a result, 5 of the 7 factions in the LDP announced their dissolution, and the Motegi faction and the Aso faction stuck to the city and never surrendered. The more than 50 members of the Aso faction were united, and the Motegi faction soon became "traitors", and many core members who had served as ministers announced their separation, making Motegi unexpectedly become a "criminal bastion of reactionary forces".
On Kishida's left is Sanae Takaichi, and on the right is Yoshimasa Hayashi.
There are also two high-profile candidates for prime minister, one is Sanae Takaichi, Minister of Economy and Security, who is covered in the image of an iron woman. The other is the current Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa. With the disintegration of the ** faction, Takaichi's power in the party is getting weaker and weaker, and even if he announces his participation in the party presidential election, it is difficult to obtain the support of the majority of votes.
Lin Fang is the most suitable candidate for the prime minister of Japan at present, he has served as the minister of culture, education and forestry, economy and foreign affairs, and now he is the cabinet steward and the second most powerful person in the world. However, Lin Fangzheng's advantage is also his weakness, because he himself is the actual controller of the "Kishida faction" and Kishida's "number one brother".
The term of office of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party is set at three years, and Kishida's term of office expires in September this year, and there is no doubt that he will run for re-election. Judging from the current political state of the Liberal Democratic Party itself, especially the United States** Biden fully supports Kishida, no one in the Liberal Democratic Party can have absolute confidence and strength to defeat Kishida. In this way, Kishida may not be in suspense for another three years as prime minister.