oneLithium iron phosphate is fragrant
China's new energy vehicle industry has huge market potential, and under the dual role of policy and market, China's new energy vehicle industry has gradually entered an explosive period of scale expansion and a period of comprehensive marketization. The era of new energy vehicles with a hundred flowers blooming and a hundred schools of thought contending has begun. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 95870,000 and 94950,000 units, an increase of 358% and 379%, with a market share of 316%。Ranked first in the world for 9 consecutive years.
As the development of the new energy vehicle industry matures, related industries will gradually enter the era of subsidy-free marketization, and manufacturers will further determine the best comprehensive cost-effective solutions according to market segmentation to meet the requirements of different customer groups. Previously, driven by subsidy policies and the influence of "range anxiety" of new energy vehicles, the battery industry focused on the improvement of battery energy densityAt present, the mileage problem of new energy vehicles has been alleviated, and the safety performance, cycle performance and cost of lithium batteries after the subsidy decline have been highly concerned by battery companies and car companies, and the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries with safety performance and cost advantages has rebounded rapidlyThe industry prosperity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the field of power batteries and energy storage continues to rise. Lithium iron phosphate has the characteristics of high safety, excellent cycle performance and low production cost, and China's lithium iron phosphate has the advantages of abundant upstream resources and environmental friendliness, and the development situation has been improving in recent years.
In recent years, China's power battery head enterprises have strengthened the technical iteration of packaging forms, especially the landing and application of CTP technology and blade battery technology, which has greatly improved the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries, superimposed on the good performance in terms of cost and safety, and driven by the large-scale application of hot-selling models such as Tesla and BYD, lithium iron phosphate has ushered in rapid development.
According to the preliminary research data of Gaogong Lithium Battery, in 2023, China's lithium iron phosphate materials will be shipped 1.65 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 48%; The market share is 6653%。On the one hand, there are first-class advantages, and on the other hand, fast charging technology has advanced rapidly, and range anxiety has been alleviated. In the future, the lithium iron phosphate route may continue to occupy a large market share.
It is estimated that by 2025, in the field of power batteries, with the release of iron-lithium models of global mainstream car companies, lithium iron phosphate batteries will account for 43% of the market share; In the field of energy storage, lithium iron phosphate batteries are expected to occupy 85% of the market share in the future.
According to the estimation of Founder**: it is conservatively estimated that the market demand for lithium iron phosphate materials will exceed 2 million tons in 2025. If we take into account the increase in the proportion of new energy power generation such as wind and solar, coupled with the demand for energy storage business, as well as other applications such as power tools, ships, and two-wheeled vehicles, the annual demand of the lithium iron phosphate material market may reach 10 million tons in 2030.
twoThe current situation of the lithium iron phosphate market.
The development of lithium iron phosphate has gone through three stages, the start-up period from 2009 to 2016, the high-speed development period from 2017 to 2019, and the rapid development period from 2020 to 2022. Time flies to 2023, and the lithium iron phosphate industry has undergone earth-shaking changes. From the shortage of supply in 2021, to the shortage of high-speed development in 2022, to the surplus in 2023, enterprises are crowded, and it has now entered the stage of competition.
Under the crazy influence of lithium carbonate, the "leading big brother", lithium iron phosphate** has soared in the past few years. From about 3 years ago70,000 tons, ferociously jumped to a record high of about 170,000 tons at the end of last year; However, only half a year later, lithium iron phosphate has suddenly increased to about 750,000 tons, a decrease of nearly 60%.
Driven by high profits, many companies have joined the lithium iron phosphate industry, not only new energy industry enterprises, but also rookie manufacturers have entered the market, the layout of lithium iron phosphate production line, want to share a piece of new energy soup, this phenomenon has caused lithium iron phosphate enterprises to be crowded, increase competitive pressure, production capacity is far greater than demand, the industry gradually from shortage to surplus. By the end of 2023, the lithium iron phosphate production capacity will be about 4.27 million tons. There is too much new capacity, and the built capacity is enough to meet the demand in the next 3-5 years, resulting in serious overcapacity. In 2023, the industry will enter the "deep water area" of overcapacity and survival of the fittest. However, the cycle is an objective phenomenon of the stage, and the cycle has not subverted the development logic of the new energy industry.
In 2023, the two major application fields of power and energy storage will continue to grow, while the proportion of lithium iron phosphate in the field of power batteries will continue to increase, and driven by factors such as the ban on ternary in energy storage batteries, the output of lithium iron phosphate will continue to grow, but the growth rate will decline significantly. After doubling in 2021 and 2022, the lithium iron phosphate industry will return to normal in 2023, and the growth rate will be lower than the previous estimate, and the annual target will be slightly discounted. At present, it is difficult for lithium iron phosphate to rise, and lithium iron phosphate may continue to operate under pressure in 2024.
It is difficult to make profits, grab orders at low prices, and occupy the market with card slots
The lithium iron phosphate industry is undergoing a round of deep adjustment, but the industry track is seriously differentiated, and most companies have meager profits, making ends meet, and it is difficult to make profits in a short time. Whether it is a newly put into production enterprise or an enterprise in production, in order to maintain or occupy market share, it grabs orders at low prices and occupies the market. When the demand is not greatly driven, the first below the cost price is frequently displayed, and in the market, the first business stomles on each other. Many enterprises seek to survive and seize the opportunity by binding the downstream and locking the upstream. But this relationship is also relatively weak.
Under the influence of fierce competition in the market, lithium iron phosphate has gradually changed from a production enterprise to a processing enterprise, and has a higher threshold for technology. In the buyer-led market, pricing and production models have undergone different changes, including pricing, lithium iron phosphate procurement pricing began to be based on raw materials + processing fees as a condition for negotiation, lithium iron enterprises have a weak right to speak, at the same time, lithium iron phosphate enterprises mostly adopt the production mode of sales and production, and reduce the losses caused by the fluctuation of raw materials to a low level.
Reducing costs and improving product performance has become a rigid need
In 2024, the new energy vehicle war will continue, and the domestic power battery war will be tense, and the power battery, which accounts for 30%-40% of the cost of pure electric vehicles, will continue to reduce the price.
CATL and BYD, as domestic power battery giants, have recently promoted cost reduction, and their new batteries have also ushered in a huge downward adjustment. CATL is promoting 173AH VDA lithium iron phosphate cells with 2 as standard2C rate fast charging, cell** no more than 0$4 wh. As a comparison, the average price of square lithium iron phosphate cells in the same period last year was about 08-0.$9 wh. This year, in the battery product pool of CATL, there is a lithium iron phosphate super-rechargeable battery that focuses on affordable fast chargingAt the same time, BYD's Fodi battery was exposed recently, and it has also been notified internally, urging the team to continue to reduce costs, which said that the current procurement cost reduction space is still huge.
The downstream power battery end is forced to reduce costs and increase efficiency in the lithium iron phosphate industry. In the future, the development of lithium iron phosphate also needs to be upgraded from the aspects of raw materials, production processes and key production equipment, so as to greatly reduce production costs and improve product performance.
The iteration speed is fast, and the production line is frequently debugged
The upgrade and iteration of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate products are fast, and once there are any downstream requirements, they can be unconditionally debugged at any time: repeated communication, continuous sample verification. The production line that has just been commissioned and stabilized production may soon receive new instructions from downstream battery cell companies: new requirements for metal particles, new requirements for product compaction, new requirements for energy density, etc. In order to adapt to the downstream requirements, the company frequently debugs the production line. The technical level, process flow and detailed formula of downstream enterprises are different, which makes it difficult for the same product to be used by multiple customers. There are even enterprises whose production lines are operating normally, but the results of the products made downstream are different, A can make an ideal product, but B cannot; Yesterday I was able to make a qualified product, but today I can't.
threeThe technical development direction of lithium iron phosphate
At present, the cruising range of lithium iron phosphate batteries is no longer a problem, and the cruising range has reached 700 1000 kilometers. Considering the advantages of lithium iron phosphate in cost, cycle and safety performance, lithium iron phosphate will dominate in the future electric vehicle technology route. The development of high-compacted lithium iron phosphate materials, high-rate fast-charging lithium iron phosphate materials, high-energy density lithium manganese iron phosphate materials, low-temperature lithium iron phosphate materials, low-cost lithium iron phosphate production technology, large-scale and intelligent equipment will be the future technological development trend of lithium iron phosphate.
fourLithium iron phosphate outlook for 2024
Looking forward to 2024, low-price competition and industry clearance will become the main theme. At the same time, we may see several changes in the industry:
1. At present, in this round of industry downward cycle, enterprises at the tail end of the industry and low gross profit space will be eliminated first due to continuous losses; Although the enterprises at the head of the industry are also facing a short-term crisis, in the long run, the market share and competitiveness of the leading enterprises will be further consolidated and improved.
2. The cost account cannot be calculated, the new expansion project is withdrawn, and the production capacity is greatly reduced;
3. The company's self-produced FP has more losses, and it is more cost-effective to choose externally sourced FP, and the self-supply rate is no longer improved;
4. The annual operating rate is low, and in order to reduce production costs, enterprises will selectively start and stop work according to the rhythm;
5. There is no volume to roll. The number of suicidal price reductions has decreased, and the number of win-win cooperation has increased.
The lithium battery industry track is still showing a good development trend, and the future demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries for new energy vehicles and energy storage batteries is long-term optimistic. With the industry's production capacity cleared, the lithium iron phosphate industry will continue to develop rapidly. In the context of the industry reshuffle caused by phased overcapacity, enterprises with prominent cost advantages and technical advantages are expected to cross the cycle and become the winners of the second half of lithium iron phosphate.