In the next 10 years, China's birth rate will fall below 5, what changes will be ushered in?
With the publication of the 2023 population data, we can finally get a clear picture of the current demographic situation in our country. Data shows that at the end of 2023, the total population of the country will be 14,09670,000, a decrease of 2.08 million from the end of the previous year. Among them, 9.02 million people will be born in 2023, and the birth rate will be 639‰。
Although our country has shrunk by 2.08 million people in the space of a year, after all, we have a population of 1.4 billion people, and these numbers do not seem to attract attention. But in fact, 2.08 million is equivalent to the population of a third-tier city last year"disappears"This is no joke.
If in another 10 years, the birth rate in the next 10 years will be less than 5, and those of us will inevitably face 3 problems, as we understand it.
According to the results published in previous years, by 2023, the number of newborns in our country has been declining for 7 consecutive years, and from 2022, our country will also experience negative population growth for the first time. It is worth noting that if this situation continues, the proportion of the elderly will naturally become higher and higher, which also means that the pressure on China's pension will be increasing.
By the end of 2023, China's population aged 60 and over will exceed 29.7 billion, or 21 percent of the country's total population1%, of which the population aged 65 and over will be more than 21.7 billion. This equates to an average of one in five citizens over the age of 60, and the situation will be worse after 10 years.
However, it is in this context that the number of newborns is declining, which is bound to expand the problem of elderly care in China. According to the previous report of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, by 2035, China's elderly population aged 60 and above will exceed the 400 million mark. Therefore, in the next 10 years, if China's birth rate is below 5, many families will face greater pressure to retire.
If the pension issue becomes the focus of social attention, the employment problem will also follow. The balance of social and demographic structure has always been the key to sustainable economic development, but with the continuous intensification of aging, it will inevitably affect the balance of labor supply and demand in China.
In other words, every newborn from conception to birth, growth, marriage, and childbirth itself creates value for the society and the country, especially the young people are the consumption pillars of the whole society. However, as the number of newborns decreases year by year, not only the number of children will decrease, but also the number of young people will decrease in the future, which will immediately lead to the problem of low social spending power, making the labor market unsatisfactory and the employment problem prominent.
In our view, the aging problem in our country will inevitably continue to worsen, and medical problems will follow. After all, when people get older, their bodies will inevitably have problems of one kind or another. Data show that among the 60-year-old population in China, the disabled and semi-disabled elderly account for about 16%; Among people over 80 years of age, about 40% of people are disabled or semi-disabled.
The decline in the number of young people will lead to a decrease in the number of medical service personnel, and the elderly will face the problem of lack of medical resources, which should not be overlooked. Although we have lived longer and longer life expectancy over the years, many elderly people have been suffering from chronic diseases for a long time. The problem will be exacerbated as the number of newborns continues to decline.
In short, while there are certain benefits to reducing the population, there are three major issues associated with it that will also affect the lives of ordinary people. I wonder what everyone thinks about this?