Hello everyone.
Speaking of the last round of real estate bailouts, it is inseparable from the strategy of "price increase to inventory".
At that time, after pressing the start button to save the market, housing prices began to go all the way.
The more it rises, the more it buys, and the more it falls, the more it doesn't buy.
Countless people have poured into the real estate market to buy houses with their cards.
In this way, the inventory of commercial housing has been successfully removed;
The bailout was declared a success.
At that time, this wave of ** should have left a deep impression on many partners.
However, time flies, and it has been 10 years since the destocking of commercial housing began in 2014.
There are many similarities between the current market environment and that of a decade ago.
Housing prices have fallen again and again, and inventories are higher than mountains;
The house has become a hot potato, and the buyers are waiting and seeing;
Market data is also bluntly telling us:
Now the situation has taken a turn for the worse, and the property market needs a new "big savior".
So, will the central bank once again resort to the big trick of "raising prices to destock"?
At the moment, it probably won't.
But either way, the inventory has to go and the market is saved.
So what will be done?
You must know that the hole card in Yang Ma's hand has not been lit up, and this time she took out a new card.
Some partners may think of PSL (Collateral Supplemental Loan);
Recently, this word has been used everywhere, that is, the money bag that gave money to the shed in 2014;
Recently, the central bank used it to give the market a shot in the arm, directly injecting **350 billion.
But today we're not going to focus on PSL;
It's another super new way of borrowing money that the central bank has come up with;
It's called "Housing Rental Group Home Loan".
You may not have heard of this term yet, but this tool actually showed signs last year.
In January and July last year, the central bank was actually paving the way, issuing two notices and starting to release rumors, which seemed to hint at a big move.
On January 5 this year, the central bank and the State Financial Authority finally officially finalized the big move of "housing rental group housing purchase loan";
So how fierce is this loan?
On January 11, that is, today, the central bank quickly launched this loan tool;
It was announced that the quota of 100 billion yuan will be directly released, and 8 pilot cities will be launched to prepare for a big job.
The 100 billion will be used to buy commercial housing, and then turn it into long-term rental housing.
The 8 pilot cities are:
Tianjin, Chengdu, Qingdao, Chongqing, Fuzhou, Changchun, Zhengzhou and Jinan.
This time the response speed of the place is also extremely fast;
Because it's a "first-come, first-served" approach, no one wants to be slow.
For example, Qingdao, for example, has already begun to do it:
Already with the first batch 18With a capital of 500 million, 2,319 ...... were bought
This also means that the next destocking and destocking may be very fast.
This is equivalent to the central bank "sweeping" in the property market:
The state pays money, and local loans are used to buy a large number of idle properties, which are then converted into long-term rental houses.
Of course, unlike the central banks of the United States, Japan and other countries that directly purchase bonds, our central bank directly buys a large number of commercial houses;
This should be regarded as the housing market version of quantitative easing;
Moreover, the interest rate on loans provided by the central bank can be very low, which is certainly more advantageous than personal mortgage loans.
As long as the rent-to-sale ratio can exceed the interest rate, it can basically cover the loan.
It can be said that this loan is very generous, and the minimum payment is only 20%;
In principle, the loan amount shall not exceed 80% of the appraised value of the property, and the loan shall be repaid within a maximum of 30 years.
But with such preferential conditions, it looks like an exclusive discount for state-owned enterprises in the early stage.
And this loan tool just provides financial support for the large-scale acquisition of idle real estate by local governments and the rescue of the market at low prices.
The local government also has an urgent need to bail out the market, and the central bank and the local government quickly reached a consensus and can take action immediately.
Such an operation can not only quickly destock, but also stabilize the market.
Because as soon as it enters the market, it is bought in batches;
And if these houses are to be converted into long-term rental housing, it will not cause large fluctuations in the market.
So the purpose of this action of the state is also obvious:
It is to convert these vacant houses into long-term rental houses to give the market a stable signal.
As soon as ZF entered the market, everyone was relieved - ZF bought it, which means that the house price is stable, and everyone will naturally dare to buy it.
This is different from the previous round of monetization shed reform:
The last round of destocking through price increases, although it seems to be effective in a short period of time, there are many sequelae.
This time, the state will use the power of the state to stockpile;
Compared with the last "price increase to inventory", the advantage of this operation is that it will not make the house price crazy**, more secure, and more long-term.
It also solves the urgent need for affordable housing by the way;
And ZF will be able to earn some rent because of low-rent housing;
With one stone, it not only saved the property market but also helped the people.
Moreover, this trick is much faster than buying and selling a house for an individual, after all, it is a "large transaction".
If the pilot is successful, it will only be a matter of time before it is rolled out nationwide;
If this can really be a good medicine, then the role of supporting the real estate market should also be very significant.
At the end of this year, it is the testing period for the effectiveness of this new Z policy;
We can wait and see if this "rescue operation" of the central bank will bring the property market back to life.