Finance Associated Press, February 7 (edited by Liu Rui).On Tuesday, Eastern time, Bank of America released a report saying that although oil demand will still grow in the next few years, the growth rate of oil demand may have peaked due to factors such as technological advancements and the shift to alternative fuels.
Oil demand growth will slow down over the next six years
Analysts led by Bank of America commodity strategist Francisco Blanch** say that global oil demand will grow at a slower pace between now and 2030 after it has risen sharply from the lows of the pandemic.
In the third quarter of 2023, global oil demand reached a record 10.3 billion barrels per day, up from 92 million barrels per day in 2020 when energy demand shrank during the pandemic. But Bank of America expects net oil demand to increase by only about 3.7 million barrels per day over the next six years.
"If we add an average of 600,000 barrels per day per year, oil demand by 2030 should grow at a fraction of what it has done over the past three years," the Blanch team wrote in the report. ”
The team believes that oil demand is expected to grow significantly, despite hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as aviation, chemicals and marine transportation. However, the general trend of improved energy efficiency, ageing populations and slower income growth in the 38 member countries of the OECD should be able to offset the increase in energy demand in these high-carbon sectors.
Oil demand growth has been sluggish in most of the world's economies
Bank of America**, China's oil consumption will peak around 2030 as electric vehicles boom. At the same time, the backdrop of slowing global economic growth will also lead to a slowdown in oil demand growth.
In addition, advanced economies, including the United States, Europe, and some Asian countries, are poised to lead the way in alternative energy sources, while demographic changes in these countries will also pose a challenge to the continued growth of oil demand.
Bank of America arguesGlobally, only India will remain the fastest-growing major oil market.
"Regardless, the ultimate goal of achieving net-zero emissions will not change," Blanche said. Renewables** are also declining and are becoming more competitive ...... compared to traditional fuel energy sourcesOil consumption is likely to continue to grow until 2030, but oil demand growth may have peaked
Finance Associated Press Liu Rui).