The shipping index is a relative number that reflects the impact of comprehensive changes in the shipping market on freight rates such as capacity and volume in different periods. At present, according to the form of goods + packaging, the goods transported by ocean are divided into three categories: general cargo, dry bulk cargo and liquid cargo, and the corresponding transportation modes are container transportation, dry bulk transportation and oil tanker transportation
1. Dry bulk transportation is mainly used for upstream raw materials, that is, the transportation of bulk dry bulk cargo, such as iron ore, coal, grain, cement, etc.
2. Oil tanker transportation is mainly used for the transportation of liquid cargo such as ** and liquefied natural gas.
3. Container transportation is mainly used for the transportation of general goods including downstream equipment and light industrial products, such as automobiles, electronic products, textiles, etc.
(i) Baltic Dry Index (BDI).
The Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI) is a synthetic index, and the BDI index is a weighted daily rent of three types of bulk carriers: Baltic Capesize Index (BCI), Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) and Baltic Supramax Index (BSI), which is weighted by 4:3:3 to obtain 1, that is, BDI=（capesize5tc**g 0.4＋panamaxtc**g×0.3＋superamaxtc**g×0.3）× 0.10 。This weight ratio is basically the same as the capacity structure of bulk carriers, which can more accurately reflect the comprehensive freight rate changes of global dry bulk cargo. In addition, the volatility of the three sub-indices varies greatly, with the BCI of the large ship index being as high as 122 times and the small ship index BSI being less than 30 times since 2007. The BDI index comprehensively reflects the freight rates of various mainstream ship types, which can not only reflect the change of trends, but also avoid the interference of short-term sharp fluctuations in data.
1. The Capesize Index BCI represents the shipping of strait-sized ships of more than 100,000 tons. It mainly reflects the transportation of iron ore, phosphate rock, coking coal, coke, bauxite and other industrial raw materials.
2. The Panamax index BPI represents the 790,000-ton Panamax ship shipping**. It mainly reflects the transportation of grain, sugar and other essential materials.
3. The handysize index BSI represents the 450,000-ton handysize ship for shipping**. It mainly reflects the transportation of phosphate fertilizer, potassium carbonate, wood chips, cement and other goods.
(ii) Baltic Freight Index (FBX).
The FBX Index (full name Baltic Freight Index) is used to reflect the spot freight rate of 40ft containers on 12 major global routes between Asia, Europe, North America and South America, including sea freight and related surcharges (fuel surcharge, peak season surcharge, port congestion surcharge, canal surcharge, etc.), but excluding import duties, port charges at the port of departure and port of destination. The biggest feature of the FBX index is that it is a freight index with a small number of daily updates in the world, reflecting the most real-time in the market.
(3) The relationship between BDI and FBX
To put it simply, the BDI index is mainly a bulk freight rate, there is no fixed route, and the index fluctuates highly. The FBX index is mainly a container freight rate, with a fixed route, and the index volatility is low.
1. **Observation: The freight index has seasonal changes.
We can observe that the BDI and FBX indices have obvious off-peak season phenomena: the off-season is located in January and March, respectively, mainly due to the slowdown in demand of the international shipping ** chain during the Lunar New Year when China is the world's largest exporter. The peak season is in July and September, mainly because in addition to the summer oil season in Europe and the United States, it also coincides with the construction period of traditional Chinese steel, which affects the global demand for raw materials. From the changes in freight rates, it can also be seen that the seasonal changes of the FBX index lag behind the BDI index, mainly because the BDI index reflects the bulk **, mainly upstream raw materials, and the FBX index reflects the container**, mostly semi-finished products or end products, so there is a deferred phenomenon on the **.
2. Medium and long-term observation: the freight index reflects the manufacturing cycle.
The freight rate reflects the supply and demand of the international ** chain, and has a high degree of linkage with the 3 4-year manufacturing cycle, and the BDI index because of its bulk composition nature, compared with the FBX index can judge the demand of enterprises for upstream industrial raw materials, from its year-on-year observation, it has a fairly strong cyclical characteristics: the manufacturing cycle rises, and the BDI index rises year-on-year; The manufacturing industry cycles in a downward cycle, and the BDI index decelerates year-on-year.
The Baltic Exchange has also launched the Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) and the Baltic Exchange Clean Tanker Index (BDTI) as two benchmarks for measuring the freight rates of the oil products market.
In the field of oil tankers, the Baltic Exchange launched the Baltic International Tanker Routes and the BITR Asia Index in January 1998 to cover the market for transporting heavy oil (** and light oil (** products). In October 2001, it split the Baltic International Tanker Route into the Baltic Sea Tanker Index (BDTI) representing the heavy oil market and the Baltic Product Tanker Index (BCTI) covering the product market. This was done to show that the two tanker markets are separate sectors driven by different market conditions and should therefore be represented by separate freight indices. Just like the Dry Bulk Freight Index, the Baltic Exchange collects freight rate information from tanker experts for each route every business day, calculates the average freight rate for each route, compares the expert's valuation, and then reports to the market on the basis of measurements from the World Tanker (Basic) Rate Table.
(1) The full name of CCFI index refers to China's export container freight index.
as a shipping market"Barometer"The freight index, the CCFI index reflects the actual settlement price, and it can be seen from the CCFI that the actual settlement price does not fluctuate so much. When trying to raise the price, the container shipping company also takes into account the factor of the decline in freight rates, so the announced price increase is deliberately amplified, but as long as the rate falls less than the price increase, the actual settlement of the freight rate is rising, and the CCFI index is gradually increasing.
(2) The full name of the SCFI index is the Shanghai Container Freight Index
In 2005, with the establishment of the Shanghai International Shipping Center, the Chinese government also launched the SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) index, which is based on the previous CCFI (China Export Container Freight Index), but the new SCFI is more responsive to the market.
The SCFI is announced every Friday at 15:00 (Beijing time), and the ** units are divided according to different routes (TEU or FEU), since the Port of Shanghai has officially surpassed the Port of Singapore to become the world's largest port in terms of container throughput since 2010, the importance of SCFI is needless to say.
(iii) WCI World Container Freight Index
The World Container Index (WCI) is a weekly launch by Drewry, a shipping advisory agency in London and Cleartrade Exchange in SingaporeFourReleased the latest of 8 important routes around the world (including Shanghai, New York, Los Angeles, Rotterdam, Genea and other major ports in the world**.
Shipping indexes, generally appointed by the relevant exchange independent shipbrokers (so-called expert panels), by the expert panel within the range of the assessed route to give professional assessment and judgment, and submitted to the exchange, as soon as the exchange receives the freight assessment, it can start to calculate the average freight rate for each route, according to the relevant weights and base to compile the shipping index.
1) The shipping index has the following practical significance:
1. The freight index system is a necessary condition for the establishment of a fair and efficient competition mechanism. Fair and efficient competition mechanism requires complete market information, freight index is the product of mathematical abstraction of freight information, the release of freight index to promote the transparency of freight information to the greatest extent, to avoid the "prisoner's trap" caused by incomplete freight information.
2. The shipping freight index system is conducive to the development of the transportation service market. Judging from the current experience of the development of the freight index of the world's shipping powers, the shipping freight index mainly has three major economic functions, such as characterizing the shipping freight market, derivatives trading targets, and trading scales.
3.As the subject of the derivatives market, the shipping freight index is conducive to the development of its derivatives market.
(2) To give a specific example, the Baltic Index reflects the market significance
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a "simple and complex" index linked to the "immediate freight" of sea freight. It is said to be simple because the index only reflects the change in transportation costs, and it is very simple; It is said to be complex because, strictly speaking, the formation of ** is often a complex process of reaching a desirable level after experiencing a multi-party game, which involves changes in supply and demand It is the core variable that determines the current economic state and future direction.
Since the object of dry bulk transportation is mainly the upstream raw materials that play an important role in the core industrial field, when the downstream demand increases and the enterprise has the intention to expand, it will be transmitted to the upstream through the first chain layer by layer.
Therefore, when the global economy shows signs of recovery, the upstream demand for raw materials in various countries will also increase, reflecting the shipping market is the need for more ships to go to sea to move bricks to work, so that the freight rate**, the Baltic dry bulk index will start synchronously**.
Therefore, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a leading indicator of the economy. If the BDI starts to last**, it indicates that the global economy is improving, and vice versa, there are obvious signs of recession; If BDI begins to fall when commodities are running at a high level, it indicates that the global market's demand for raw materials will fall, and the probability of commodities will peak; If commodities are rising and BDI is not, it is highly likely that there is speculation and vigilance.
In addition, the number of ships, the level of fuel, and the intensification of protectionism in various countries will cause fluctuations in the BDI index. Therefore, when observing the BDI index, we should give priority to judging the trend based on historical averages, highs and lows, and then consider the possibility of multiple situations coexisting.
* type index, like the Baltic Dry Bulk Index, belongs to the most sensitive type of index in the market, because it has the function of guiding the allocation of resources, directly responding to market supply and demand, and is very suitable for observing trend reversals and judging and grasping future opportunities. However, there are two sides to the coin, and everything needs to be looked at dialectically. The faster the reaction speed of the indicator, on the one hand, the greater the possibility of false signals, because of the high degree of sensitivity; On the other hand, it leads to ** changes, that is, there are too many factors that affect supply and demand, which tests the observer's ability to collect and analyze information.
In the BDI index, what we can do is to prioritize the analysis of the three weight indices of its branches, find the one with the deepest impact and the greatest fluctuations, and then search for information according to the transportation mode and goods involved, and make speculations based on current events.
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