According to reports, the annual report of the political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group pointed out that no matter who is elected to the United States, the 2024 election in the United States will bring the greatest political risk to the world, and American institutions will definitely be hit.
The picture shows the United States** Biden took a photo with the public at the Hannibal restaurant during his visit to Charleston, South Carolina on January 8.
The Eurasia Group reported on Monday (Jan. 8) that the Nov. 5 elections "will put American democracy to the test not seen in 150 years." The report refers to the civil war 150 years ago.
That's because the U.S. is already the world's most dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy, and the year-end elections will exacerbate the problem, regardless of who wins in the end, the report said.
"The outcome of the vote is essentially a coin toss (at least for now), with the only certainty being that America's social fabric, political institutions, and international standing will continue to be undermined," the report states. ”
The picture shows former U.S. ** Trump participating in a campaign event in Clinton, Iowa, on January 6.
Trump's defeat could incite widespread intimidation.
If current Republican frontrunner Trump loses to Biden again, the real estate mogul could again accuse the election of massive fraud and incite "widespread intimidation" against the election and staff, the report said.
While large-scale violence remains unlikely, the United States in Biden's second term could also face an "unprecedented political crisis" if Trump goes to jail for one of the many cases he faces, and Biden sees his campaign as a fight to save democracy and confront Trump, the report said. Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, in an attempt to prevent Biden's victory from being recognized.
If he loses, Biden is expected to throw in the towel. But the Eurasia Group notes that many Democrats will also consider Trump illegitimate, and some will refuse to confirm his victory on the grounds that the constitution prohibits anyone "involved in the insurrection" from taking office.
At the same time, it is expected that Trump, who is in his second term, will "transform" the United States into a state of repression in pursuit of rivals
Violence in the Middle East is the second largest global risk.
The Eurasian Group ranked violence in the Middle East as the second biggest global risk, arguing that Israel's war with Hamas "may only be the first stage of the expanding conflict in 2024."
The third risk is Ukraine. Kyiv is trying to recapture the remaining areas occupied by Russia, the Eurasian bloc**, and Ukraine will actually fall into ** in 2024.
Ukraine will face another major blow if Trump is elected to the United States, the report states, as Trump opposes billions of dollars in U.S. aid to Kyiv.