Previously, the Fed was widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time in March, however, by the end of December, this expectation had shifted. U.S. economic data showed strong resilience, coupled with the vagueness of the Fed minutes on the timing of interest rate cuts, undermined market expectations for an early easing of policy in the US. This has caused divergent market investors on Fed policy expectations, which has put pressure on gold prices.
Last week, a stronger-than-expected jobs data boosted the confidence of bulls, leading to the idea that the Fed was about to cut interest rates. However, the vagueness of the Fed minutes about the timing of the rate cut, as if it was a sudden anomaly, shattered the market's illusions. Markets are currently pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut during the Fed's March 19-20 policy meeting, but the 60% uncertainty is enough to make everyone's hearts skip a beat.
However, lower interest rates have reduced the opportunity cost of investing in non-yielding**, which has provided some support for gold prices. At the same time, inflation data became another key factor. The US consumer and producer inflation reports, which will be released on Thursday, are closely watched as the data will shed further light on when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. If inflation data surprises to the upside, the Fed may not be able to cut rates anytime soon, which will create a bearish factor for the market and the market. Conversely, if the inflation data is in line with expectations or lower than expected, gold prices could receive some boost.
At the same time, the United States said that the task of fighting inflation has not been completed, and the World Bank has also said that the global economy will slow down further in 2024. All of these factors add to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the economy and make the Fed's monetary policy path uncertain. Under the divergence between long and short, the market generally maintained a high gold price before the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.
Look at the technical side of Hujin, I don't want to say too much about this position, from last week to now, the rice is about to be fed in the mouth, 4818 This position has been said no less than ten times, the key position of shorting, Shanghai Gold is in the first structure, don't be afraid of anything else, it is to give me a good point to continue to short. Half of my friends who took profit around 479 before were at 4818 to add back, hedging friends to close the long order. Trading does just that. I always like to think about what to do with such complexity. Today's short orders continue to hold, and the follow-up upward ** is to give us the opportunity to short, no, just wait for ** to enter the market. Don't open your mouth and close your mouth to raise interest rates and cut interest rates, no matter how good your analysis is, you can't do it, there is a fart, when you get to the position, you should enter, and you are hesitant about what can be done. From 484 to now, there is no coming down after the position arrives, and I am always afraid, and if I am afraid, don't make a transaction, there is no risk in this world.