Since the beginning of the year, QDII** has frequently released premium tips, which has earned enough market attention.
It is worth noting that India** has continued its momentum since 2023, and while prompting the premium risk, it has also adopted measures such as purchase restrictions due to the tight QDII quota, and the upper limit of RMB share subscription has even been lowered to 100 yuan.
But this still can't stop the enthusiasm for subscribing funds. According to the latest quarterly report, India is still continuing its concentration strategy, with the latest scale of some growing by as much as five times compared to when it was founded, and the scale of some growing by 300% in the fourth quarter of 2023 alone. Positive growth has been achieved in many of these dimensions.
* The manager said that India's ** is still developing steadily, the advantages of demographic dividend and engineer dividend have great potential, their preference for long-term investment in the Indian market has not changed, and they still maintain a concentrated investment strategy, optimistic about financial, industrial and consumer stocks that benefit from the recovery of domestic demand, and also increase the allocation of the technology sector with more valuation adjustments in the early stage.
Positive returns across multiple time dimensions.
Specifically, ICBC Credit Suisse India Market** (LOF) is a **medium**, which mainly invests in overseas tracking of the Indian market (including ETFs) to achieve effective tracking of the trend of the Indian market**. The ** was established in June 2018 with an initial offering size of 25.4 billion yuan, boosted by continuous performance, the scale has reached 15 by the end of the fourth quarter of 2023$2.1 billion. The quarterly report shows that the past three months, the past six months, the past year, the past three years, the past five years, and all dimensions since its establishment have been positive, and the yields are respectively45%。
Manulife India Opportunities*** was established in January 2019 and is currently the only active management company in the market that invests in the Indian market**. By the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, the scale had risen to 73.7 billion yuan, which will be only 18.7 billion yuan, a single-quarter growth rate of 300%. What contributed to the rapid rise in scale was also the performance factor. According to the quarterly report, the ** has recorded positive returns in the past three months, the past six months, the past year, the past three years, and since its establishment, with yields of37%。
Boosted by performance, subscription funds continue to pour in, making the company frequently limit purchases. As early as the end of 2023, due to the shortage of QDII quotas, ICBC Credit Suisse India Market** (LOF) limited the amount of RMB share investors to 100 yuan for large-scale subscription and regular fixed investment business, and then suspended the subscription and regular fixed investment business soon after. On January 17, 2024, the ** resumed large-amount subscription business, but the RMB subscription limit remained at 100 yuan.
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the total subscription volume of ICBC Credit Suisse India Market** (LOF) reached 40.3 billion shares, which is the total redemption amount of 1More than doubled the 9.7 billion copies, bringing the total share up from 8700 million copies exceeded 1 billion copies in one fell swoop. Manulife India Opportunities*** total subscription is 42.7 billion copies, excluding 4379The net subscription after 790,000 shares exceeded 3500 million copies, making the total share from 14.5 billion servings** to 52.9 billion copies.
*The concentration policy remains unchanged.
In terms of specific holdings, the quarterly report shows that ICBC Credit Suisse India Market** (LOF) has invested more than 1.2 billion yuan in India**, accounting for nearly 80% of the total assets, and the largest ETF is iShares MSCI India UCITS ETF, with a holding scale of 23 billion yuan (up from 1.0 at the end of the third quarter.)8.6 billion yuan further improved), accounting for 15 percent of the net asset value10%。This is followed by the iShares MSCI India ETF (2.).$2.7 billion), WisdomTree India Earnings (21.3 billion yuan), AMUDI MSCI INDIA II (19.9 billion yuan), the size of these ETFs increased from the end of the third quarter.
Manulife India Opportunity was 64 at the end of the fourth quarter92%, down from more than 80%** at the end of the third quarter, but the asset size of the position ** was 48.3 billion yuan, up from 1.3 billion at the end of the third quarter6.6 billion yuan has risen significantly, mostly in the financial, consumer, industrial, energy, health care and other fields of companies, both ICICI Bank Ltd (AXIS Bank *** HDFC Bank Ltd (HDFC Bank *** State Bank of India *** and other banking institutions, as well as Reliance Industries Ltd (India Fidelity Industries), Infosys Ltd (Infosys Technology *** Bharti Airtel Ltd (Bharamandalam Investment and Finance Co Ltd (Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co Ltd (Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co Ltd (Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co Ltd (Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co Ltd (Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co Ltd (Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co Ltd (Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co Ltd
In terms of operation, Manulife India Opportunities' manager Shi Jing said that the fourth quarter still maintained a concentrated investment strategy, and the long-term sector preference for the Indian market has not changed, and continued to maintain the allocation strategy in the third quarter, while cashing in the profit of over-valuation, the sector is still optimistic about the financial, industrial and consumer stocks that benefit from the recovery of domestic demand, and has increased the technology sector with more valuation adjustments in the early stage.
India's GDP is expected to grow by 6 percent in 20243%
Liu Weilin said that as a traditional agricultural country, India's economic development is more dependent on the overall economy. From a long-term perspective, India's demographic dividend and engineer dividend advantages have great potential, and the development trend is relatively healthy. "As a result, we have chosen India as a target for our asset allocation, and it now seems that the development of the Indian economy is still in line with our desired path. ”
Shi Jing believes that 2024 is a transition year for global macro data to wait for the overall recovery, while the Federal Reserve's interest rate is still at a high level, although everyone expects to start cutting interest rates sharply in 2024, but the volatility of the process will increase. India's economy will also weaken marginally in 2024, but it still has a comparative advantage against the backdrop of a weak global economy, and the IMF lowered its forecast for global GDP growth in 2024 from 3% to 2 in its October forecast report9% to maintain India's 6GDP growth is expected to remain unchanged at 3%. In terms of risks, inflation, the speed of industry advancement, and the global macro environment are the ones that need to be paid attention to this year.
Regarding valuations, Liu Weilin has looked at the level of the Indian market over the past five years, which is measured by forward EPS, and the current valuation multiple is more than 20 times, which is slightly lower than the average of the past five years, so it is relatively reasonable. "Looking at the valuation time series over the past five years, except for the time in 2020, when it fell below minus two standard deviations, its valuation has not fallen below minus one standard deviation at other times. Whether it is foreign or domestic investors, they maintain a strong confidence in the development of the Indian economy or the ** market. Therefore, its valuation, among emerging market countries, is certainly not particularly cheap, because everyone has more confidence in it. ”
Editor-in-charge: Luo Xiaoxia.
Proofreader: Tao Qian.
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