The Russian-Ukrainian war has entered its second year, and the overall situation is not optimistic for Ukraine.
The first is the Ukrainian leader, who has been in Ukraine for months and has finally subsided, and Zaluyani, the supreme commander of the highest authority, has lost the internal struggle for power. Zelensky, with NATO's acquiescence, kicked him out of the control center, and most of his officers were fired. Obviously, the "wartime change of commanders" caused an uproar inside and outside Ukraine and dealt a great blow to the morale of the military. As far as Ukraine's allies are concerned, the support from NATO is only a thunderstorm and a small rain, and for various reasons, short-term rescue to them is still at a standstill. Russia, by contrast, has been organizing new assault forces and has vowed to fight it to the end until 2025.
From the point of view of the war, the Ukrainian army has been on the defensive since the end of last year, while the Russians have gradually gained the upper hand. From Kupyansk to the Khersonklinki region, the Russians have been expanding their front line, on which they are attacking and attacking. And on the various battlefields, the most important is Avdiivka, where the "battle" of two armies is taking place. After suffering heavy losses at the end of last year, the Russian army began to make more noticeable progress from the end of January.
On February 17, the **men occupied Avdiivka and were advancing towards the Berdich-Netelove line in the following situation:
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With the two smaller towns of Mut and Kuban, the Ukrainian army is stationed in Avdiivka "with heavy troops" in an attempt to start a decisive battle with the **people. The Armed Forces of Ukraine were originally equipped with 53 brigades, 110 mechanized infantry brigades, 116 territorial defense brigades (not 116 mechanized brigades), the 59th motorized infantry brigade, the 2nd brigade of the National Guard, as well as a number of separate battalions, both inside and on the periphery.
The Ukrainian commander-in-chief, having launched the battle for Avdiivka in November, was determined to march on Avdiivka. Although the commander-in-chief of Zaluzhny has already made clear his refusal to hold on to the city of Afghanistan, under pressure from Zelensky and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, it is very likely that the Ukrainian command will bypass Zaluzhny and order the Zaporozhye cluster to send a mobile force to the rescue.
By order of the command, Ukraine assembled all the troops that could be mobilized in Avdiivka. By the time I finish writing this, Avdiivka has assembled the 31st Infantry Brigade, the 47th Infantry Brigade and the 116th Infantry Brigade from the former Koban Regiment, as well as the 1st Brigade, the 1st Tank Brigade and the 129th Territorial Defense Brigade, which are temporarily attached to the Kuban group.
In addition, Ukraine has mobilized valuable national armed forces to prepare for the battle in Avdiivka. In Acheng, the Ukrainian Legion has assembled six separate battalions, 45, 62, 63, 425, as well as four special operations groups composed of **, all of whom have been incorporated into "Tavria" and defended under the command of the Ukrainian command.
As the situation is getting worse and worse, the Ukrainian high command has to transfer the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian right-wing forces "Azov" from the Chasov Yar region to the Avdiivka region for support. As of mid-February, the Ukrainian army had formed 10 mechanized brigades, 3 brigades to defend the territory, 4 guard regiments and 6 separate battalions. Judging by the mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian army, most of the mobile units of the Tavlia Army have been destroyed and have not yet been replenished, so it can be estimated that the mobile forces of the Tavlia Army are more than 60%.
Ukrainian army T-72AMT tank 1 brigade, Bradley tank 47 tank.
With so many troops gathered in one city, it smacks of the Battle of Mutter. But unlike **Mutt, Ukraine has sent a "new force" from the beginning of the war, and their ** and personnel are more sophisticated.
Of these units, 47 mechanics, having lost two American mechanized units in Zaporozhye, received supplies from the United States in Europe prepared in advance. In August, the 116th Mechanized Brigade launched a brief attack on the village of Robzine, but did not cause much **; In July, 31 mechanized brigades suffered heavy losses, and it has been six months since they retreated from Veliky Novohilka. And the soldiers of the nationalist camp, in this war, are also the most popular. In contrast, the brigade, the 116th Territorial Defense Brigade and other units originally stationed here, although they have been stationed here, their personnel and equipment are constantly being replenished, so they have the right to use "armor-piercing shells" and "Javelin" anti-tank guns.
The Ukrainian side has already sent a large force to deal with the Russian attacking forces. The main target of the Russian army is the 8th Army Corps in Donetsk, consisting of the 114th Brigade, the 1st Brigade, the 5th Brigade, and the 1st Brigade of the Navy of the Republic of Donetsk, including Avdiivka. In addition, the assault battalions formed by the "Wagner" units, as well as a number of other mercenary camps known for their "tunnel warfare", also joined the urban street fighting, which the Ukrainian side called "Storm Z troops". As a result, the ** people sent five brigades and twelve assault battalions, which were well prepared.
After the Ukrainian army increased its strength, Russia redeployed part of its reserves that had been stationed in Avdiivka for a long time to Avdiivka, four mechanized brigades of the 41 Army Corps and the Second Army Corps, two tank regiments of the 90 Army Corps, and 253 artillery brigades. In addition, in order to cope with the new wave of reinforcements of the Ukrainian army, the military also sent 8 territorial defense corps, located in the north and south. In addition to the army, Russia has mobilized thousands of former "Wagner" employees and individual mercenaries, providing additional forces to the attacking brigades ahead. The two retired Russian soldiers, Donetsk and Wagner, cooperate tacitly and have high morale, which allows them to have more combat effectiveness at the brigade level.
The Avdiivka offensive can be roughly divided into two parts. **The original plan was to form a mechanized unit from several brigades in Donetsk, advance from the Novokalinov direction, put pressure on the Ukrainian army, and then bypass Stepovo and attack from behind. But this wave of attacks is quite difficult. ** The men were subjected to Ukrainian mine and other anti-armor fire in Stepovo and Vodany, slowing them down and greatly reducing their strength, followed by a frontal attack by the 47th Brigade "Bradley" infantry tanks.
The published osint map shows that the 114 brigade lost 54 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles and several hundred people. In addition, the 1st and 5th Donetsk brigades also suffered a huge blow when they launched an offensive in the Vodani region south of Avdiivka, and the two brigades lost more than 60 vehicles in the fighting near Vodany. In short, by December, the Russians had stopped their assault on Avdiivka, having lost 150 tanks and had captured only one high ground on the northern railway line.
The 114 Brigade added more than a hundred new vehicles, which is not a small number.
After the Ukrainian army's attempt to launch an attack to the west in the Krasgonovka area was thwarted, they stopped the attack, believing that the attack of the ** people was nearing the end. At the same time, there was also a new wave of complaints on the ** side: the 114th Brigade complained about the lack of meticulous coordination between front-line comrades-in-arms, poor coordination in combat, and lack of support from unmanned aerial vehicles. At the same time, the top brass also condemned the 114th Brigade for being too rash and ignoring the combat guidelines.
However, even so, the war still has to continue, and the Russians have reverted to the previous Wagner style since December, using the tactics of "front-line flat push", with missiles, Lancets and fighter jets as the main targets, to strike at Ukraine's technological **. Since December last year, the Russian army has begun to increase the use of these **. According to the Ukrainian side, the Russian Air Force will put in dozens of precision-guided missiles carrying UMPK missiles every day, and the military's Hurricane S and "Lancet" types have also joined the fire strikes on Ukrainian artillery.
In general, the Russians are equipped with an anti-tank missile before sorties, which are used to destroy the enemy's mobile batteries. Whenever the Ukrainian army tries to wipe out the ** army with artillery fire, they suffer their own injuries. In this case, the Russian army in the Donetsk region can no longer carry out effective air strikes against the Russian Air Force, and the only thing that can be done is to endure daily artillery bombardment and logistical support.
Screwed. In the continuous shelling, the morale of the Ukrainian army began to decline, and the army behind refused to change without consuming the firepower of the Russian army, and the army in front did not get enough supplies. At the same time, Russian troops are also stationed along the railway line in the north, as well as in the Pervomaisky area south of the city, which also makes the Ukrainian army even more fragmented.
After a month of war, by mid-January, the tide had turned. On January 15, **Wagner units, located on the southern front, engaged in a swift and fierce battle with the Donetsk People's Army. They managed to break the lines of the Ukrainian army, easily captured the industrial base, entered a street south of the city, and began street battles with Avdiivka. The retreat of the Ukrainian army made the Russians realize that in the city, the Ukrainians were the weakest. On January 20, the Russians unexpectedly seized the Otto Palace Entertainment Center, expanded the defensive line and captured the anti-aircraft battalion, a military base that the Ukrainians had held for a decade.
According to the Russian side, a few months ago, the Russian retired soldiers' units found an 80-centimeter-long oil pipeline with a length of 2 kilometers and a length of 2 kilometers, located at the rear of Avdiivka. It took Russian engineers more than four months to clean up the pipes full of sewage and oxygen, and selected special forces. However, several hours after arriving at the breakout site, the assault team was not informed of the expedition. Then, on January 18, 150 Russian raiders crossed the pipeline and entered behind enemy lines in Ukraine, taking up new positions, repelling the poorly armed defenders and encircling some Russian forces in the south. All in all, with courage, intelligence, engineering support, and the support of artillery reconnaissance units, these veterans completed a rare "tunnel raid" in the 21st century, which can be called a legendary story in the history of modern warfare.
Tunnel. When the ** people entered the city, they quickly rushed into the original formation of the Ukrainian army. Russia's various ** centered on FPV have prevented Ukrainian counterattacks, and ironically, the mines that were originally in the city to prevent the use of Russian troops have now cut off Ukrainian counterattacks. The Ukrainian army also does not have sufficient infantry to launch a counterattack. In this way, the loss of the Avdiivka supply line is almost a certainty.
By early February, the Ukrainian command was forced to abandon what had been previously lost and sent a third Iraqi raid brigade with high morale to launch a counterattack against the Russians. The original plan of the Ukrainian army was to inflict a devastating blow on the Russians before they could gain a foothold. However, due to the change in the situation in the city, the reinforcement goals of the Ukrainian army shifted from counterattacks to evacuation. The reinforcements transferred from the front line were bombarded indiscriminately by the first people on the front line, and they had to retreat to the rear, maintaining logistics in the rear and providing support for the retreat of the city.
But the onslaught of the ** people is far from stopping. In early February, after more than a month of rest, the 114th Brigade attacked again, rapidly advancing from north of the Blue Lake to the Blue Lake district, and then taking advantage of the opportunity to raid the residential areas west of the city. The Russian army resumed its attack on the 114th Brigade soon after being heavily damaged, while the third battalion of the 110th Mechanized Brigade and the 129th Territorial Defense Brigade of the Northern Front were crushed and forced to move to the southern residential areas, the coking plant and the 9th district.
This crack is the collapse of the entire battle situation. By the time the author finished writing this article, the army had achieved a great victory in Avdiivka. On February 14, a station in the northwest direction of the city was destroyed, they occupied a gas station, and stopped the main line of the Ukrainian army, Industrial Street, and in December a flag was erected next to Zelensky's **.
On the southern front, the 1st "Slavic" Brigade (Donetsk) and Wagner of the Russian army, with the support of "Tsar Entertainment", launched an offensive from the east and west to the air fortifications controlled by Ukraine for 10 years. ** people continue to attack the city and advance towards the first building of the coking plant. The news of the withdrawal of Russian troops came from Acheng. (Note: ** The Ministry of Defense announced the occupation of Avdiivka on February 17 and annihilated 1,500 enemy troops in one day on the 16th).
Just like Lisichansk and **Mutter, the end of Avdiivka is also a certainty. Although the main ** line of the Ukrainian army has been cut off, both roads are still dirt roads, and all of them have been damaged by shelling and FPV by Russian forces. The Ukrainian army built a defensive front in the north of Lanhu Lake to prevent the southward invasion of the ** people in the west of the lake. The 3rd Azov Brigade and other armies stationed in the mud roads and coking plants in the 9th area were evacuated from the mud roads to defend the Territorial Defense Brigade, the 110 Mechanized Brigade, 6 separate battalions, and 3 special police brigades.
A spokeswoman for the Russian army has said that some Russian units in Avdiivka will "move to more advantageous positions" and that "some Ukrainian soldiers have also been captured." Dicki, the former commander of Ukraine's far-right "Aidar battalion", told reporters that the outcome of Avadiivka will be decided within 48 hours, and if they cannot push back the troops on the vital Avadiivka line, then they must retreat from Avadiivka and move to the next defensive position. White House spokeswoman John Coby said that there is a high probability that the Russian military will capture the city of Avadiivka. However, Mr. Kirby argues that much of this is due to the fact that the Democrats did not agree to the **arms.
By February 15, the 114 Brigade had another inspection of Zelensky.
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Since Russia's first battle, both Russia and Ukraine have maintained a posture of "filling in the line of contact evenly and concentrating forces in the core area", and the Battle of Avdiivka is a typical example of the traditional "bad war" between Russia and Ukraine, just like the Battle of **Mut and the Battle of Zaporizhzhia. Both the Russian and Ukrainian teams gathered here, and for some purpose or for some purpose, adopted a tactic of slow advancement.
But compared to the Battle of Mutt and the Battle of Severodonetsk, the Battle of Avdiivka was the beginning of "modernization", which not only gathered more manpower and reserves, but also carried out the sophisticated use of artillery.
The Ukrainian side complained that Russian air forces fired guided missiles almost "unlimitedly" throughout the battle. The Ukrainian army claims that between February 13 and February 15, the ** army dropped 211 UMPK bombs on coking plants and cities. Thanks to the use of precision-guided bombs, these high-rise buildings are no longer hiding places for soldiers, but a necessary path for the Russian army to advance. With the opening of the air artillery fire and the pursuit of troops in the rear, the fortified areas of Ukraine have been unable to form an effective interception of the Russian army, which has brought new troubles to the entire front.
From another point of view, Ukraine's ability to attack Russia in terms of science and technology has been significantly weakened. There are many reasons for this, but the most important is that the help provided by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has reached a certain limit. Since the battle of Zaporizhzhia last year, NATO has been pumping its own reserves into Ukraine. As the war continues, the reserves available to NATO are dwindling.
And, with the collapse of Ukraine's air defense and electronic warfare systems, the efficiency of the Russians' attacks on Ukrainian artillery is also increasing. This can be seen from the combat video of the Ukrainian army, as far as I know, the Ukrainian army successfully attacked the UAV of the Ukrainian army's large-caliber artillery of more than 122 mm, and there is UAV geographic information as indirect evidence. The main force of the attack was an FPV-type unmanned aerial vehicle, which covered all active Russian artillery. In contrast, the number of artillery units used by the Russian army to launch an offensive against Ukraine in early 2024 has risen to more than 50 and is gradually returning to the level of Soviet-made artillery.
Regarding the specifics of the reduction of Russian artillery **, the author makes a bold speculation,Ukrainian armySupportMost of the hippocampusThe missiles were all broken by the Russians, even by DonetskCannonThe pawn was broken。According to the author's calculations, since the end of January, the Ukrainian side has stopped reporting on the Donetsk "Hippocampus" missiles, and Kherson is a blank. At the same time, Seahorse, a guy known as "the golden body is not broken", was also recorded and repaired in the United States.
The statement of Hippocampus's "broken work", coupled with the accusation of the Ukrainian side against the United States ** accusing Russia of "strong firepower", is also reasonable. But the author believes that the Russians have not completely restrained the "Hippocampus", and the Russians are still waiting for the other side to make a mistake that will destroy the most important artillery in the Russian-Ukrainian situation.
The Seahorse fighter was missing one wheel, and the ** people used the "Thunder" missile on the plane to blow up the warehouse where the Seahorse was moored.
But, one way or another, the battle for Avdiivka was a success of the new strategic system. Neither the Ukrainian command nor the NATO command will think about whether Russia will learn from experience, whether it will improve, whether it will improve. The battle for Avdiivka brought together the best forces of both sides, but in the end, it was the advantage of the Ukrainians who had held the home ground for a decade and returned to the city. In this case, Avdiivka is especially important. The USSR made great progress, as Rzhev-Sychovka's "The Great Patriotic War" says: "In 1941-1943, the Soviets learned to attack in the summer, and before that we didn't even know about the summer. However, the Soviets learned from the Stalingrad war.
The Soviets learned how to defend themselves in Moscow, and later at Stalingrad, how to attack the enemy. Today, in Zaporozhye, the ** people learned how to defend, and later, in Avdiivka, they also learned how to attack. It's just a joke, the Russian command took it into account before the war, and if it weren't for the stupidity of the ** people, the Russians would not have risked their lives to pay for their tuition. But the war has come to this point, and the only hope for the Russians now is that they will still be able to take the initiative during the three years of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
For NATO, the defeat in the Battle of Avdiivka will prompt it to reflect on the military disparity between Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian army lost the battle in Severodonetsk, which is why NATO decided to equip the Ukrainian army with more artillery to meet the new century. Now that the Russian army has entered the stage of high-level cooperation, then NATO must come up with a new way to break this situation.
We often say that the modern integrated army in the East has a better ** system than reserve artillery, and the Russian and Ukrainian armies are fighting in the quagmire, like two cripples, both of them are desperately attacking their most vulnerable places, those who have arms will hit other people's arms, and those without legs will kick one of others' legs. The war has been going on for three years, and the Russian side still lacks the "Hippocampus", a time-sensitive attack method that can strike deeply at enemy artillery, while Ukraine lacks a "Hippocampus" that is "large in quantity and full", and an all-round attack method of "Lancet", "Red Earth", and "Caliber".
But the Russians can learn a lesson, and the "crippled **" will eventually become a "healthy ** person" after introspection and lessons learned from this battle. Moreover, the existing international order gives Russia an opportunity to make amends. And on February 15, Russia's "Tornado-S" long-range missiles were delivered to China, and Russia also gained military power similar to that of the eastern powers. In addition to the Hurricane-S, the Russian Air Force has improved in number and type, and the unmanned aircraft of the US military are still the "eyes of the sky" that Ukraine is unable to deal with.
Ukraine, on the other hand, is a comprehensive flaw. At the moment, a weakened Ukraine is faced with problems on all fronts. Ever since the Russians sabotaged the Kratz plant, Ukraine has not had its own truck-making capacity. Except for the Soviet Union and pre-World War II Ukrainian vehicles, only a small part of the Ukrainian side is provided by the United States, and some civilian passenger cars produced in Italy and Germany can also be used as trucks. This wagon is the blood of this assault force. At present, most of the Ukrainian vehicles are deployed at a distance of 10 to 15 kilometers from the battle line, and the Russian army often uses such ** as "Lancet", "Hurricane-S" to intercept the precious vehicles of the Ukrainian army. For these soldiers, they are worth much more than a tank.
And the Ukrainian army has many problems such as vehicles, ammunition and manpower, and trucks are only a small part of them. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization must understand that this is a war of attrition. This battle itself is a great war that can change the new world pattern, and if you refuse to come up with the same amount of supplies, you will inevitably perish in bloodshed and sacrifice.
So, in the war in Ukraine, will the North Atlantic Treaty Organization also follow Russia's example? This requires the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to realize that the world is real. Clausewitz once said, "War is a kind of politics." Looking at the entire campaign, I think that Zaluzhny and Prigozhin, the two generals who have the deepest understanding of modern warfare, have in common that they both adhere to realism and regard military science and technology as the highest strategic goal. It is precisely because of this that the Russian-Ukrainian coalition has been able to achieve such impressive results in the **mut region and the Izyum region, which has made the entire Talas fall for it.
But between Russia and Ukraine, it is a political war, not a war, and the top leaders of both countries have their own political reasons. The famous general Zaluzhny left in disgrace, while the ** man advanced on all fronts in Avdiivka. This figure, who was once worshipped as a god in the Western world, has now become a scapegoat after World War II, and I have to say, this is a very funny joke. The only difference is that when Russia realizes that the world is a physical entity, it is up to NATO whether it can provide the necessary supplies for Ukraine's problems.