Not long ago, the US "Rock Wars" published an article lamenting the failure of US deterrence and the mainland's ability to reunify Taiwan by force is getting stronger and stronger. Under such circumstances, the United States and its elements are constantly provoking Chinese mainland, and this is not pushing the Taiwan issue down the road of war?
The article proposes that four factors will lead to an increasing possibility of military reunification.
First, during his tenure, Trump brazenly trampled on the "one China" consensus in the Shanghai Communiqué. Since then, neither the Democratic Party nor the Republican Party has taken "one China" seriously. If the United States forces the Taiwan authorities to cross the red line, then the mainland will have no choice but to reunify by force.
Second, the development of cross-strait economic relations has not brought about an effective push forward for peaceful reunification. The authors of the article conclude that China's economy is in trouble and is likely to deflect pressure by unleashing nationalist sentiments. And the mainland economy will also lose its attractiveness to Taiwanese. In that case, it is better to use force.
Third, there is the issue of technology. The United States has put in place obstacles to prevent China from gaining access to advanced integrated circuit production capacity. Before the mainland launched military reunification, the United States imposed sanctions on the mainland according to the mode of war. Since it is necessary to be subject to such sanctions whether to fight or not to fight, it is better to use force.
If the mainland takes the first bay, it can also control the world's most advanced and powerful integrated circuit production capacity, even if it can't be digested in the short term, it can also have a strong impact on the international chip market, so that the West can make a dilemma between the chip shortage and continuing to support TSMC.
Fourth, China's military power relative to the United States will peak in 2030. The U.S. military reform will show results in 2030, with Japan's increase in military spending from 1% of GDP to 2% of GDP, and the increase in military spending and the extension of military service by the Taiwan authorities. And China's modernization cycle will end by 2030.
Based on the above four reasons, the author believes that China is likely to launch a military reunification by 2030. Therefore, he proposed that the United States should encourage the Taiwan authorities to find a way to survive these years. How to boil it? The author suggests that the Taiwan authorities should not count on the United States to intervene, but should immediately begin preparations to organize scorched-earth resistance, and at the same time call on the whole world to impose sanctions on the mainland, bring in the support of Japan and other countries, and once military reunification is initiated, Taiwan should immediately blow up the TSMC factory so as not to fall into the hands of the mainland.
It should be said that many of the analysis of the article is quite objective. The author has no good way to deal with the obvious difference in strength, but can only appeal to the Taiwan authorities and the Taiwan people to make up their minds to fight the mainland to the end. However, judging from the standpoints of people from all walks of life in Taiwan's elections, there is no market for such a bad idea.
The article repeatedly emphasizes the so-called "ten-year window period", which is based on two assumptions: the first assumption is that after 2030, the US military will regain the generation gap in strength against the PLA; The second hypothesis is that around 2050, China** will have a financial collapse and will not be able to organize a large-scale war.
The basis for these two assumptions, the first of which is that the U.S. Navy and Air Force are working to transform. The Navy is making every effort to shift to a situation where both manned and unmanned ships are emphasized, and no longer rely on core equipment such as aircraft carriers, which are small in number, high in value, and easy to destroy.
The Air Force's B21 bomber will complete the production plan around 2034 to rebuild the absolute superiority of the US military's strategic bombing. The second hypothesis, which the author did not explain in detail, is estimated to be based on the figures of changes in the Chinese population, ** by 2050, China's working population will fall off a cliff, which will lead to a significant decline in national production and tax revenue.
It can be seen from these two ** that the American think tanks are still confused about the endogenous power of Chinese culture and Chinese civilization. The PLA's equipment level has caught up with the world's advanced level from being poor and empty, and now it has forced the US military to a headache.
Why do they think that the PLA will stagnate from now on and wait for the US military to open up the generation gap again? You must know that the goal of the Chinese People's Liberation Army in the past 100 years is to build a world-class army, and perhaps by 2030, many of the equipment of the US military will be opened up by the PLA.
As for the financial issues, we do face the risks posed by an aging population. However, the Chinese nation has a very tenacious vitality, and has returned from the uninhabited valley of thousands of miles in history many times. There is no war or famine in China, and both demographic and financial problems can be solved. On the contrary, the financial crisis in the United States is getting closer and closer to the explosion.
Therefore, if Taiwan is to be reunified by force, there is no question of a 10-year window. Over time, this window will get wider and larger. In another 10 years, I am afraid that the United States will not be able to protect itself, and it will not be able to take care of Taiwan at all.