ASML immersion DUV lithography and EUV lithography machines are officially out of supply!
Preface. ASML's unique investment strategy in Chinese mainland has attracted great interest and heated discussions in the industry. It is the world's largest manufacturer of optical etching machines, and its most advanced machines are indispensable in contemporary electronic manufacturing.
Although Asmael had previously decided whether to continue to export deep ultraviolet light sources to us, the Netherlands had to temporarily suspend the supply of this important technology to us due to pressure from the United States, and the situation suddenly changed dramatically.
Looking at China's development history, the Dutch ASML Group also has its own unique views in this regard. In the early days of our business, we carried out extensive economic and trade cooperation with China, and the two sides carried out extensive exchanges in the fields of talent exchange and technical cooperation, and also provided a large number of technologies and equipment for local Chinese enterprises.
As the U.S.-China game intensifies, Asmail's way of working has changed.
In particular, in the past few years, American enterprises have imposed a large number of restrictions on them in their business fields, and even discriminated against them in various ways. Therefore, in order to ensure that his business is not damaged in any way, Asmael must also react carefully.
On December 8, 2022, **antium (*antium), the largest chip producer in the Netherlands, said that it had made a decision to limit its chip business to the People's Republic of China due to pressure from the United States.
On December 9, 2022, the United States and the Netherlands achieved phased results on the possible signing of an export control agreement for semiconductor products against the People's Republic of China, according to diplomatic news reports from participating countries.
The Netherlands has expressed a willingness to deepen ties with the United States, which on October 7 introduced a set of measures to prohibit Chinese companies from acquiring advanced chip technology and legalize the import control system for Chinese semiconductor products.
According to domestic and foreign reports, one of the special measures for enforcement is a ban on highly competitive deep ultraviolet lithography machines manufactured by the Dutch company ASML** to the People's Republic of China. Although the device is a little less powerful than EUV lithography machines, it still has enough hardware power on chips at 7 nm and beyond.
An announcement made by ASML.
At the beginning of the year, the situation changed a lot. ASML, the world's largest manufacturer of lithography equipment, recently issued an announcement that the Dutch authorities announced the cancellation of the export license of some lithography machines, including ASML's 2050 i and 2100 i two main models, because it is impossible to provide such lithography machines to Chinese companies, so the only few consumers in Chinese mainland who rely on this model of lithography machine have been impacted.
So, in the field of high technology, will we have an adverse impact on the development of high-end integrated circuit technology? In fact, the situation is not as pessimistic as one might think.
ASML's announcement is much more complicated than it seems, and it includes a lot of details. Although ASML only mentions the cancellation of the 2050 i and 2100 i lithography licenses, in fact the four outputable devices are still producible, in other words, the 2000 i and 1980 di can still be contracted to customers**.
We must be aware that all four immersion methods can be used to produce processes from 45 to 7 nm, but they behave differently.
It is clear that the Netherlands**, although at the request of the United States**, this time withdrew only two lithograph printers' licenses.
If the U.S. continues to press, the Netherlands will take stricter measures to control the import of 2000 i lithography equipment, but ASML still has the right to deliver the remaining 1980 Di lithography machines to customers.
Since ASML has already delivered a large number of lithography machines to customers, ASML's supply of lithography machines will not stop. ASML announced some time ago that the number of bookings for its DUV lithography machine from Chinese users is nearing the end.
This is a good sign that ASML's supply has not been affected by the accident and that there is still a high demand for ASML lithography equipment in Chinese mainland.
It is reported that ASML's lithography machine series to the Chinese mainland market has reached 60 billion, and its sales volume in 2022 has almost doubled; It is worth mentioning that ASML received 24% of its revenue from Chinese mainland in the second quarter of this year, which rose to 46% in the third quarter of this year.
In summary, it is safe to assume that ASML has a high market share in Chinese mainland and its existing inventory is sufficient to ensure that it will be able to maintain ** in the next few years.
Shanghai Microelectronics***
According to published information, the Dutch ASML company has launched a product called Twinscannxt:2000 i, which is currently the most cutting-edge immersion lithography equipment for deep UV; It is important to note that this model and more advanced lithography equipment are subject to export control policies.
This means that China can only rely on the TwinsCannxt of the 1980s and before, which lacks accuracy and capacity: according to the ASMAX website, the NXT 1980 Di has a resolution of more than 38 nm,1Numerical aperture of 35 nm up to 275 block hours. 275 tablets per hour. Although it is possible to achieve precision measurements below 7 nm with multiple times**, it is currently only suitable for precision machining above 14 nm due to its high cost and difficulty in mass manufacturing.
China has overcome all kinds of difficulties and strengthened its determination to conduct independent research in the field of optical microscopy. The 90 nm lithography equipment SSA600 20 independently developed by Shanghai Microelectronics Co., Ltd. has achieved mass production of 90 nm process and achieved the highest processing capacity of 45 nm.
Although ASML does not have a large number of high-end products in the Chinese market, it is definitely a major success for China because they have their own lithography process.
To this end, Shanghai Microelectronics has developed a 193 nm ARF lithography process that covers all sizes from 45 nm to 22 nm.
Although this model cannot be compared with the NXT 1980 Di Duv**, it is enough to show China's determination and strength in lithography technology.
China still has a long way to go to catch up with the world's advanced UV lithography technology.
U.S. officials are putting pressure on ASML.
According to ASML's announcement, we do not expect the revocation of the U.S. export license and some of the earlier restrictions to have an unbearable impact on the company's finances in 2023.
It is based on this situation that the United States and ASML held in-depth talks some time ago to explain the principles of export control and the impact it brings.
In particular, the Export Control Order issued on October 17, 2023 restricts the supply of some high-end wafer manufacturers by restricting the supply of certain types of mid-to-high-end deep ultraviolet (UV) immersion lithography equipment.
In this context, ASML also underlines that it will continue to enforce the relevant laws and regulations, in particular export control regulations, in the countries in which it operates.
In addition, it was reported that a few hours after ASML issued an official announcement, the American ** came to the factory and asked ASML to immediately suspend some of the machinery and equipment it had ordered for Chinese customers.
It is important to note that deep UV lithography is designed for processes at 28 nm and below, with processes at 28 nm and below.
This lithography process is based on the principle of science and technology, and after multi-channel, it has been able to manufacture wafers below 10 nanometers, and the world's leading manufacturers include ASML in the Netherlands, Nikon in Japan, Canon, etc.
At 5 nm and below, extreme ultraviolet (UV) will be the core of the next generation of lithography and processes, and ASML is currently the only important component in the world that can provide large-scale IC chips with 7 nm and lower processes.
In short, the United States has imposed severe export controls on ASML's products, which will have a huge impact on the semiconductor industry in the entire world.
It is not possible to purchase an immersion light microscope.
Initially, ASML's extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment was unable to enter the Chinese market due to U.S. restrictions. However, semiconductor companies in Chinese mainland have not yet been able to apply extreme ultraviolet lithography technology to core devices.
During this time, the United States has been stepping up its efforts to limit the domestic 14 nm process to the domestic process, and has joined forces with countries such as Japan and the Netherlands to tighten control of the lithography process.
The Japanese side has made it clear that any equipment that uses immersion lithography will not be able to be exported to China. The Dutch company ASML claims that there is currently only one underwater lithography machine that can meet the requirements of JJ processing (JPEG) NXT:1985 DI has export qualification.
What happened next shows that from October 2023. As the United States has once again tightened restrictions on imports to China, the only remaining ASML NXT:1985 model has been listed as an embargoed item and cannot be shipped to Chinese mainland.
ASML also said that despite the obstacles, it was able to obtain the license that year with its expertise, and the work is progressing smoothly and it expects to launch a full set of immersion lithography equipment (deep UV and extreme UV) to the Chinese market in the future.
Given that 2024 is the beginning of the implementation of the new policy, we have reasonable expectations that ASML's supply of DUV immersion machines and extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment to Chinese mainland will begin in the second half of next year.
Especially since this year, China has obtained a large number of lithography machines from ASML, and by the end of November, Chinese mainland had imported more than $50 billion from ASML, a threefold increase over the same period last year. Naturally, the Chinese side is also seizing the market for ASML's immersion lithography machines, buying and stockpiling on a large scale, because after the next year, it will not be easy to find such a good time.
China's backbone will not give in easily.
Starting from 5G, the United States has found that China's cutting-edge technology may become its potential danger, and has implemented a set of pressure and pressure on Chinese enterprises against Chinese enterprises, but it has also given birth to a number of internationally competitive SMIC, Yangtze River Storage, Changxin Technology and a number of internationally influential companies.
From the initial "embargo" on China's semiconductor industry, to the subsequent formation with Japan, South Korea and the Netherlands"Quadripartite Alliance", and then finally signed a tripartite secret agreement, the United States has carried out rounds of suppression of China's semiconductor industry, and now the United States' regulatory means are basically public. U.S. regulation is largely open.
All industries are heavily regulated in the United States, including semiconductor raw materials and software manufacturers, mid-layer lithography machine manufacturers and foundries.
Therefore, we must be self-reliant and self-reliant. China actively promotes the development of lithography technology and strives to achieve domestic substitution as soon as possible. We should be aware that once our country successfully breaks through this critical point, it will mark the complete collapse of the US technological hegemony.
On a macro level, I think that the U.S. restriction of China's semiconductor industry may be an opportunity for China's technological development, and it is also an opportunity to promote technological development.
The purpose of the United States' all-round suppression of China is to prevent China's chip industry from reaching a higher level, and one of the most important targets of attack is China's SMIC (SMIC).
SMIC is the most competitive chip manufacturer in China and among the top five chip manufacturers in the world.
Epilogue. At present, the semiconductor industry in Greater China has established good cooperation with famous companies such as Infineon, ST and French in Europe, famous Toshiba and Murata in Japan, and has established good partners with Samsung Electronics, SK Innovation and other companies in South Korea.
On this basis, seeking more diversified alternatives to meet the needs of core equipment such as lithography will undoubtedly make China's chip industry more risk-resistant, thereby enhancing its international competitiveness.
The above research results show that this information will have a very complex impact on the semiconductor industry in Greater China, including positive and negative coexistence, huge challenges and once-in-a-lifetime opportunities.
Therefore, we hope that our peers in the industry, at this very important moment, must remain sober, not too pessimistic, not too proud, only to enhance their confidence, strengthen their own independent scientific and technological research, broaden the field of international exchanges and cooperation, and promote the high-level development of the semiconductor industry, only in this way, can we buck the trend in this challenging market and get more success.