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Text|Eat noodles and not chicken.
Edit|When the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022, no one expected that the conflict would turn into a protracted war. After entering 2024, instead of seeing a glimmer of peace, the eastern region of Ukraine has ushered in a new round of conscription plans between Russia and Ukraine.
Here, Ukraine's ** Zelensky passionately announced a new plan to conscript 500,000 soldiers, and Russia's spring offensive over there is also ready to start.
In the face of this increasingly fierce war, the European countries seem to have put on a posture of wanting to end up in person. After a lapse of three years, NATO once again held the "Staunch Defender" series of military exercises, which will last for more than four months, during which more than 90,000 NATO soldiers will be mobilized, known as the largest military exercise since the Cold War, and Sweden, which has not yet completed the joining process, has also confirmed to participate in this exercise.
At a time when all parties were tense, the German "** newspaper" broke a shocking news. According to the newspaper, Germany has confirmed that the war will continue for another year and a half and end in a Russian victory, when Russia will take advantage of the situation to invade the rest of Europe and trigger a new world war, and NATO will organize 300,000 soldiers to launch a "coalition defense 2025" resistance war.
*Newspaper is a 70-year-old newspaper with a history of 70 years, one of the best-selling newspapers in Europe, and a veteran of fabricating and hyping hot spots. To this day, Germany has not expressed any opinion on the so-called "Allied Defence 2025" battle plan, but as a newspaper that is good at capturing the attention of European readers, whether true or not, the report of "*" reflects the fact that Europeans are paying more attention to the war than usual.
From the hasty response at the beginning of the war to today's eagerness, how has Europe's attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict changed? And what is causing these changes?
The wait-and-see of European leaders
Before the Russian army raided Kyiv, the conflict in eastern Ukraine had been going on for eight years, during which exchanges and cooperation between Europe and Russia had never been interrupted.
In 2015, shortly after the Crimean crisis, then-German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier put forward the "Steinmeier model" for the conflict in eastern UkraineUkraine has written a high degree of autonomy in the eastern part of the country into its constitution, Russia has given up its claim to the eastern part of the country, the two sides have withdrawn their troops, and the people of the eastern part of the country have held local elections under the supervision of the OSCE.
It was Steinmeier's 10th year of German diplomacy, and two years later he was elected to Germany, a term he has held ever since. Germany's ** post does not have much real power, but there must be a virtuous person to live in it, and being re-elected so far is enough to show Steinmeier's prestige in Germany and even the whole of Europe, and the plan he proposed naturally represents the overall will of Europe.
On February 12, 2015, Vladimir Putin of Russia, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, François Hollande and Poroshenko of Ukraine gathered in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, and the parties reached the Minsk Agreement after talks.
In contrast to the first Minsk Agreement reached by the parties in September 2014, the new agreement is also known as the New Minsk Agreement. The content of the agreement is roughly the same as the Steinmeier model, according to which Russia and Ukraine will achieve a comprehensive ceasefire after three days.
The Franco-German leaders walked out of the meeting with a spring breeze on their faces, and European countries were full of expectations for the Minsk agreements, and the crisis seemed to have been satisfactorily resolved.
In the years that followed, economic cooperation between Europe and Russia intensified, with the Nord Stream energy pipeline project being particularly notable. Previously, Russia's onshore gas pipeline to Europe inevitably passed through Ukraine, which has repeatedly cut off energy pipelines. After the Nord Stream project is fully completed, Europe will bypass Ukraine and no longer be bothered by energy supply cuts.
The only two countries that are dissatisfied with the situation are Ukraine and the United States.
The Nord Stream pipelines will leave Ukraine in the cold, and the Steinmeier model is seen by Ukraine as tantamount to a humiliating disgrace, even though they have treated Russians in eastern Ukraine as alien since independence.
As for the United States, a strong presence in Europe and Russia would prevent it from exercising economic and political hegemony on a global scale. The best scenario for the United States is for Europe and Russia to remain weak and antagonistic.
Around 2015, the then Ukrainian ** Poroshenko brought down the country's financial oligarch Kolomoisky, and from 2015 to 2019, the "1+1" TV station owned by the oligarch began a political comedy called "Servant of the People".
This comedy tells the story of a middle school teacher who criticizes Ukrainian politics and runs for election**, and paints a picture of political clarity to Ukrainians. In 2019, the starring actor Zelensky in the play participated**, and defeated Poroshenko for his image and populist views in the play**.
At the beginning, Zelensky announced his acceptance of the Steinmeier model under pressure, but in fact, not only did the blockade of eastern Ukraine intensify, but also demanded that the Minsk agreements be revised.
And in terms of the domestic economy, Ukraine's GDP fell by 3 in 2020 alone75%, the people's ** voices come and go, if you don't divert the attention of Ukrainians, Zelensky is likely to be ousted during his tenure**.
As a result, Ukraine** has taken increasingly tough measures on issues such as the conflict in eastern Ukraine and joining NATO.
In late February 2022, Udong was already a scene of artillery fire, with both sides accusing the other of taking the lead in aggravating the conflict. Until then, European countries were pinning their hopes on the Minsk agreements seven or eight years ago and the expected new round of negotiations, but by that time American mercenary companies were already appearing on the front and in the rear, the most famous of which was the Greystone Company.
Graystone itself is not famous, but his parent company is the notorious Blackwater. This company has been refrigerated by the United States after many civilian scandals have been exposed, but people still remember that every one of its actions is closely related to the policies of the United States. The appearance of the Greystone Company shows that the United States** has made up its mind to stir up the situation in eastern Ukraine.
At the same time, European countries have replaced a new generation of leaders.
In September 2021, Germany just completed parliamentary elections, and it took two months for the new German government to complete the formation of a government. The reason for the delay in forming a new cabinet is that in Germany it needs more than half of the parliamentary support to form a government, and the SPD, the largest party in this election, has only won 25With 7% of the vote, if you want to come to power, you must win over other parties to form a coalition.
In the end, the SPD, the FDP, and the Greens combined met the requirements for forming a government, but their respective platforms were very different. The colors that represent these three parties are yellow, red, and green, so this session is also nicknamed "traffic light".
In the past, Germany was also facing a similar situation, but whether it was Schroeder, who was appointed in the Kosovo crisis, or Merkel, the German iron lady, there was always a leader who could stabilize the situation, but Scholz, who became chancellor this time, did not have this ability, so the new Germany could not even do the most basic step in step.
The situation in France is a little better than in Germany, although the current ** Macron was only 45 years old at that time, but he has been sitting on the throne of France ** for 5 years, and Macron has been committed to leading Europe to get rid of the control of the United States and take the path of independent development.
Macron's problem is that France will hold a new ** term in April of that year, and his poll approval rating has been fluctuating. The delicate circumstances of the election forced him to be cautious in every step of his domestic and foreign affairs.
Affected by multiple factors, such as the good momentum of Russian-European economic cooperation and the unstable foundation of the new generation of leaders, although Europe has followed the United States in formulating a series of sanctions against Russia, it is unwilling to completely stand on the opposite side of Russia.
Around 2022, Zelensky, who smelled danger, began to ask for military aid from European and American countries, and the German parliament dragged on until January 17 before deciding to provide Ukraine with 5,000 helmets and help Ukraine build a field hospital.
When the war just broke out, Macron and Scholz did not cut off Russia at the first time, and while they were in solidarity with Ukraine, they also called Putin to communicate.
After the main battlefield of Russia and Ukraine was transferred back to eastern Ukraine from Kyiv, Germany** gradually released military aid to Ukraine, but repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine was not allowed to attack Russia with Germany**.
When someone mentioned the imposition of a no-fly zone over Russia, Scholz rarely expressed a clear attitude of opposition, and Germany ** reiterated more than once that "Germany cannot be a belligerent in any case".
Compared with Scholz, who is passively close to Ukraine, Macron's attitude is more proactive, he positions himself as a "mediator" between the West and Russia, repeatedly stressing that Russia cannot be insulted.
As for the U.S. push for Ukraine to join NATO, Macron decided that it was a wrong decision from the start, that it was not only "unachievable" but also "lost the opportunity to bring Russia closer to the West."
When the United States, Ukraine and some new European countries blamed Macron's position, he even more unceremoniously pointed out that NATO was "brain dead".
Scholz and Macron are leaders not only in their respective countries, but also in a new generation of leaders across Europe, whose policies and rhetoric largely represent Europe's overall view of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
From February 2022 to August of that year, there was no interruption in energy ** between Europe and Russia, during which Europe paid Russia 82 billion euros in energy bills, more than ten times the scale of aid to Ukraine.
It wasn't until the end of September that Sweden and Denmark** suddenly discovered that the Nord Stream energy pipelines in their waters were leaking.
Stuck in the quagmire, I can't help myself
Who is behind the Nord Stream energy pipeline case, has not yet been determined, Denmark, Sweden, Germany have sent investigation teams to the area of the incident to investigate, but in the end either the investigation was interrupted or the results were not announced.
It is clear that these countries have not failed to find out the truth, but their findings point to an object that they dare not provoke. I am afraid that there will be no other force that can silence these "defenders of truth" except the United States.
And the United States is precisely the suspect with the most obvious motive for committing the crime.
In order to stop exchanges between Europe and Russia, it is necessary to cut off energy from both sides**.
Shortly before the Nord Stream pipeline** case, Russia had cut off energy supplies to Europe, citing technical failures, but that dispute did not sever cooperation between the two sides. Since Europe is unwilling to take the initiative to cut off contacts with Russia, the United States can only go behind its back.
The Nord Stream pipeline ** case can not only prompt Russia and Europe to turn against each other, but also a test of obedience.
The silence of the European countries proves once again that the independence that Europeans shout all day long is only self-comforting, and in fact no country has the ability to disobey the United States. Until then, many Europeans had not been aware of this.
With a unified understanding, the strategy of the United States can be implemented more effectively.
A few days after the Nord Stream pipeline case, the European Union quickly passed the eighth round of sanctions against Russia, and later passed the first one at the end of that year and in February of the following year.
9. The tenth round of sanctions against Russia.
Compared with the previous ones, the EU has strengthened its boycott of Russian energy in these new sanctions, and the sanctions are more inclined to the people, in addition to hundreds of Russians who have been included in the sanctions list in their personal names, and the sanctions are as strong and the policies are introduced as frequently as in the early days of the war, so that there are no suitable sanctions left in Russia later.
While directly suppressing Russia, Europe's military support for Ukraine has also risen several levels.
In January 2023, Germany changed its previous style of procrastination and announced its decision to provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks and Patriot anti-aircraft missiles and provide personnel training, in exchange for Putin's determination that Europe is directly involved in the war.
It is not Ukraine that is most happy about the change of position in Europe, but the United States. After the energy cooperation between Russia and Europe is cut off, Europe can only spend ** to buy energy from the United States, and the defense gap left by sending ** to Ukraine must also rely on US industrial enterprises to make up for it.
What's more, after European capital felt the threat of war, the Federal Reserve took the opportunity to attract investment by raising interest rates, which ushered in a rare prosperity in the United States, while the European economy was declining.
In 2022, the economic growth rate of European countries such as France and Germany is still similar to that of the United States, but data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on January 15, 2024 shows that Germany's nominal GDP is expected to surpass Japan's in 2023, but the real GDP has appeared 0Negative growth of 3%. Once that long dominated the world.
2. Germany, the economic powerhouse of the third largest economy, is in further decline.
Not only Germany, but all countries in Europe are having a hard time. According to the European Commission's own **, the EU's GDP growth rate is only 03%, of which France and Italy are both 07%, the so-called "new Europe" is mostly dragging its feet.
The overall economic recession has been accompanied by signs of political disintegration in Europe. Since the founding of the European Union, Germany and France have been regarded as the two central pillars of Europe, and their policies have tended to be relatively well-thought-out.
In the decade from 2004 to 2013, the EU completed a new round of expansion, with a total of 13 Eastern and Southern European countries joining the EU, and another 7 countries becoming candidates or reaching cooperation agreements with the EU.
On the surface, the EU has achieved unprecedented growth, but in reality it has brought many destabilizing factors to the organization.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the wait-and-see attitude that France and Germany once upheld was criticized as "politically incorrect", and their leadership position was in jeopardy. However, the new European countries have stood on the moral high ground with their resolute resistance to Russia, constantly pushing Europe to the center of the storm.
In a few years, Europe may become the Europe that the United States wants – economically controlled and politically divided.
The awakening of Europe
In the eyes of many, Russia, although the core part is located within the territory of Europe, has never been accepted by Europe. This is not only clear to us outsiders, but also to the Russians.
But as both Macron and Merkel agree, Europe's security is inseparable from Russia's involvement, a view that has been confirmed countless times throughout history, from the Napoleonic era to today's Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Since the break with Russia, Europe has fallen into a predicament that it has never encountered before, with energy crises, food crises, and political crises sweeping in, and the United States, an ally on the other side of the ocean, not only did not help Europe alleviate the crisis, but took the opportunity to make a lot of money.
After entering 2023, Europeans' attitude towards the situation in Russia and Ukraine is no longer as resolute as it was in the second half of 2022. Not only have the old powers of Western Europe begun to talk about Russian-European rapprochement, but Eastern European countries no longer unconditionally support Ukraine.
The country with the greatest contrast is Poland. Poland's stance in support of Ukraine in this war stems more from its hostility to Russia, and at the beginning of the war, Poland volunteered to help Ukraine maintain its economy by sending grain and other agricultural products to Europe.
Unexpectedly, agricultural products from Ukraine have had an impact on local output, and local agricultural products cannot be sold even if the price is repeatedly reduced, and the fruits of the hard work of Polish farmers are about to be wiped out. Driven by public discontent, Poland began to tighten its policy on the import of agricultural products to Ukraine, triggering a war of words between the two countries, and Germany and France expressed dissatisfaction with Poland's ban on agricultural products.
Seeing that there was nothing they could do, the Poles took to the streets shouting "We can't sacrifice ourselves for you" and blocked the border crossing with trucks. As of the end of January 2024, the lockdown continues.
The war lasted two years, and so did the European boycott of Russia, which, instead of dragging Russia down, became physically and mentally exhausted.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict that broke out in October 2023 can be regarded as giving Europe a respite, and as the United States takes the lead in turning its attention to the Middle East, European countries no longer respond to Ukraine's needs.
In mid-to-late December 2023, Zelensky and his aides traveled all over the United States and Europe, and in the end only raised $200 million in the United States, and several Nordic countries promised billions each, but it remains to be seen how much these small countries can help Ukraine.
At this moment, the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine is deteriorating sharply, more than half of the Leopard 2 tanks provided by Germany and other countries have been damaged, and the Patriot air defense missiles have been exhausted.
It is obvious that Europe has used a procrastination trick against Ukraine, but it will not solve the problem if it drags on, seeing that the situation between Palestine and Israel is gradually cooling down and the Russian army is gaining momentum, Europe has little room for delay.
Even if the Russia-Ukraine conflict drags on to the end this time, how will it end next time? Exhausted, Europe began to learn from other countries, such as China.
During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while providing humanitarian assistance to the Ukrainian people, we maintained good relations with Russia, adhered to the bottom line of neutrality, and advocated resolving disputes through dialogue. This approach has also been criticized by the West, but now it seems to be the most practical approach.
From late 2023 to early 2024, the Red Sea crisis triggered by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has once again aroused the attention of the United States, and Biden has begun to use force against the Houthis blocking the Red Sea. As in previous wars, the United States did not forget to enlist its allies everywhere while it was personally killed, claiming to have formed a 12-nation escort fleet.
But it didn't take long for all the Arab countries in the ten countries to withdraw, and France, Italy and other countries only sent a ** symbolic participation.
In order to assemble a "ten-nation fleet", the United States has attracted a number of small countries such as Bahrain and Seychelles, one of which has only one small and medium-sized ** army in the whole army, and the other country cannot get together 1,000 soldiers.
Later, when the US military launched strikes against the Houthi land targets, only one ally of Britain cooperated, and France, Italy, Spain, and other European countries immediately severed ties with the US military.
Perhaps it will not be long before Europe adopts the same policy in the Russia-Ukraine situation, and then Europe will not be nervous about an unproven war plan, and there will be hope for a solution to the war.
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Zheng Chunrong, Li Qin. The Transformation of Germany's New Foreign and Security Policy under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict[J].European Studies, 2022, 40(03): 126-154+8
Door mirrors. The EU and the Russia-Ukraine conflict: dilemma and way out[J].Russian Studies, 2022, (06): 87-106
Morning Sun. The United States faced a bunch of problems in organizing the Red Sea escort [n].Global Times, 2023-12-26 (008).
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