"The so-called 'temporary ceasefire' called for by the United States is more inclined to a tactical ceasefire, hoping to use a temporary and flexible solution to avoid some fundamental contradictions. ”
It's unusual! For the first time, the United States unequivocally supports a "ceasefire" in the Gaza Strip.
According to Reuters on February 19**, the United States has submitted a draft resolution to the United Nations on the current round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, explicitly calling for a "temporary ceasefire" in the Gaza Strip and opposing Israel's large-scale ground offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, saying that it will "cause further harm to civilians and lead to further displacement, including possible flows to neighboring countries, which will have serious implications for regional peace and security."
In addition, the draft calls for the release of Israeli detainees and the lifting of all restrictions on the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
The United States submitted a draft "temporary ceasefire."
The Guardian newspaper said the submission of the draft resolution marks the first time that the United States has explicitly supported a "ceasefire" in the Gaza Strip, but added that such a temporary ceasefire should begin "as soon as practicable," leaving some room for manoeuvre for the Israeli military.
* It has been noted that since the outbreak of the new round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States has repeatedly exercised its veto power to obstruct the international community's efforts to achieve a humanitarian ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. On the 20th local time, the United Nations Security Council will vote on the draft resolution proposed by Algeria on "an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Gaza Strip". The United States has previously said that the draft resolution could hinder negotiations between Israel and Hamas on detainees, and therefore would veto it.
In the view of Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Center for Middle East Studies at Fudan University, the so-called "temporary ceasefire" called for by the United States is more inclined to a tactical ceasefire, and it hopes to use a temporary and flexible plan to avoid some fundamental contradictions. "If the United States really wants to broker a ceasefire and stop ** and monetary aid to Israel, it will be more effective than such a draft. ”
Zhang Chuchu said that it is not yet clear when the draft resolution proposed by the United States will be voted on at the United Nations, and that its adoption requires at least nine votes in favor, and that none of the five permanent members of the Security Council will use a veto power. However, she believes that even if the draft is adopted, it will not be truly binding on Israel.
Why did Biden change his tune?
Biden is uncharacteristically "unequivocally in favor of a Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire for the first time", which some observers see as being under campaign pressure. For the sake of the massive American Muslim votes in Dearborn, Michigan, Biden had to temporarily abandon Israel in order to win the support of this key swing state.
However, in Zhang Chuchu's view, the reason why the United States wants to support the "temporary ceasefire" in the Gaza Strip and oppose the Israeli army's military operation in Rafah is not only to express some concern about the humanitarian disaster in the region, but also to appease its ally in the region, Egypt.
For several days, Israel has launched attacks on Rafah and the surrounding area. According to the Palestinian News Agency, the Israeli army launched at least 40 fierce strikes on the center of Rafah on the 12th, targeting mainly homes and mosques. At the time of the attacks, these places were inhabited by a large number of homeless people who had fled the northern Gaza Strip. Local hospitals in Rafah are currently overcrowded with the injured, many of whom are in extremely serious condition, and the death toll is likely to rise further.
On the same day, Biden said at a press conference at the White House that Israel's military operation should ensure the safety and security of Palestinians who have taken refuge in Rafah and nearby, otherwise it should not continue to advance military operations.
Zhang Chuchu pointed out that Rafah is located in the southernmost part of the Gaza Strip, bordering Egypt. Rafah's population has more than tripled as a result of several Israeli evacuation orders, and more than 1.3 million displaced Palestinians have now taken refuge here. And as Israel continues to attack Rafah, there will be a large influx of Palestinian refugees into Egypt, which will not only cause Egypt to worry about ***, but also increase its financial pressure. "Therefore, Biden needs to make a gesture of warning Israel that the United States has done its best. ”
However, in the face of US pressure, Israel has no intention of giving up. Israel's wartime cabinet member and former Defense Minister Gantz threatened on the 18th that if Hamas does not release all detainees by March 10 (Muslim Ramadan), the Israeli army will launch a ground operation against Rafah.
Zhang Chuchu said that Israel's attitude towards Rafah's "hands-on" is very resolute because Israel regards the Rafah port as a channel for foreign forces to send **, ammunition and medicine to Hamas. Therefore, Israel wants to cut off Hamas's rear supplies by taking control of Rafah.
Can international pressure prompt a "de-escalation" of Israeli military operations?
In the face of "out-of-control" Israel, in addition to the United States, the European side is also in a hurry.
On the 19th local time, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said that 26 EU member states called for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, while unconditionally releasing detainees and providing humanitarian aid.
On the same day, a number of EU member states** expressed concern about Israeli military operations. Spanish Foreign Minister Álvarez said Spain has been critical of Israel's military action in the Gaza Strip and asked the European Union to take strong measures against possible Israeli human rights abuses in the Gaza Strip. For his part, Ireland's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister Martin said that an Israeli offensive against Rafah would have disastrous consequences.
Urges and appeals from Western countries will increase the international pressure that Israel is already facing, but at the moment it is not enough to prompt a substantial 'de-escalation' of Israeli military action. Zhang Chuchu said that although the international community's growing dissatisfaction and pressure on Israel will prompt Netanyahu** to reconsider adjusting the policy. But Israel's objectives for military action are clear: to maximize the fight against Hamas and to structurally improve the so-called security of the Israeli environment. Until these objectives are achieved, Israel is unlikely to significantly reduce the intensity of its military operations.
And since the United States has personally 'done it', Netanyahu has been given freedom of movement. Zhang Chuchu pointed out that with the United States launching attacks on Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, and joining the Middle East battlefield, it also means that it needs Israel's cooperation in many aspects, which also makes Israel more emboldened.
In addition, Israel's current internal political stance is also far-right, with a hardline stance on security issues, which is doomed to a long period of high-intensity military action.
Take a look at the news knews reporter Fang Feifei).