The classic assertion that "power comes from the barrel of a gun" is really apt in this country. When the bell rings in 2024 and people all over the world are bidding farewell to the old and welcoming the new, the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh has ushered in the saddest day in its history.
On January 1, 2024, the "Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh" will be officially dissolved, ending its short history of 32 years. This means that the state founded by the Nagorno-Karabakh people has since disappeared in the long river of history.
We do not know where the Nagorno-Karabakh people will go in the future.
There are reports that as early as September last year, the leaders of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh announced that the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh would be dissolved on January 1, 2024.
As soon as the news was released, it shocked the world.
The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh has a total area of 4,400 square kilometers, which is larger than the land area of Singapore and Maldives in Asia. There are about 150,000 Nagorno-Karabakh natives here, much more than the population of Nauru, a country with which our country has just established diplomatic relations, and such a country has announced its dissolution.
The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, located between Azerbaijan and Armenia, has not been recognized by the United Nations.
Some experts believe that this may be a signal of the escalation of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
However, regarding the dissolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, we still have to look to history to find the answer.
History of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh
In 1917, the October Revolution was victorious and the Tsar was overthrown. The three Transcaucasian states, Armegadia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, declared their independence at the same time and formed the Transcaucasian Federal Republic.
In 1918, the Federal Republic of Transcaucasia was led to internal discord and a war with Turkey.
In 1919, Britain occupied the South Caucasus, and the Soviet Red Army invaded the Caucasus, coercing and inducing the three Transcaucasian countries to form the Transcaucasian Socialist Republic and join the Soviet Union.
Subsequently, the parties voted to annex the Nagorno-Karabakh region to the Republic of Armenia.
In 1923, in order to prevent Armenia from becoming too powerful, the Soviet Union decided to place the Nagorno-Karabakh region under the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan and established the Nagorno-Karabakh People's Autonomous Oblast, in which 94% of the inhabitants were Armenians.
The majority of the inhabitants of the Nagorno-Karabakh region are Armenians, with only a few Azerbaijanis. The minority obeys the majority, so the people of the Nagorno-Karabakh region are still willing to follow Armenia in their hearts.
In 1987, Armenians living in the Nagorno-Karabakh region strongly demanded that the Soviet Union return the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia.
Azerbaijan received the news and was very dissatisfied with how the Nagorno-Karabakh region, as the territory of its own country, could be ** out.
The contradictions between the two countries have intensified.
In 1988, armed conflict also broke out over the ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan, in order to preserve the territorial integrity of the country, forcibly abolished the autonomous region of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Through a series of means, the administrative divisions of Nagorno-Karabakh were adjusted, and finally Nagorno-Karabakh was controlled by its own country.
In 1991, the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which was originally part of Azerbaijan, also took advantage of the collapse of the Soviet Union to secede from Azerbaijan and declared the establishment of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
The Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh was established, but the Nagorno-Karabakh region has not really embarked on an independent path of development. After the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, it actually went hand in hand with Armenia. This led to the escalation of the contradictions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and it has intensified.
Eventually, a fierce war broke out between the two countries over the ownership of Nagorno-Karabakh, which lasted for three years until May 1994, when it ended in the death of about 30,000 people.
Newly independent Azerbaijan, economically and militarily weak, is no match for Armenia.
During the three-year war, Azerbaijan did not take advantage of the slightest advantage, not only did not recover the Nagorno-Karabakh region, but also lost part of the territory bordering Armenia.
As the saying goes, failure is the mother of success, and Azerbaijan's failure has made it see the gap with Armenia. After the defeat, Azerbaijan began to exert great efforts to govern the country, vigorously develop the economy, and strive to improve the country's overall strength, which also laid the groundwork for the recovery of Nagorno-Karabakh.
The fall of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
After more than 20 years of hard work, Azerbaijan has made great progress in its comprehensive national and military strength, and has a clear advantage over Armenia.
After the regime change in 2018, Armenia made frequent diplomatic and military missteps, resulting in a crushing defeat in the battle for Nagorno-Karabakh when the war broke out in 2020.
Azerbaijan's victory was mainly due to the increase in its comprehensive national strength and the enhancement of its military strength.
With its abundant oil and gas resources, Azerbaijan has made great economic development.
Armenia, on the other hand, is a landlocked country with few resources. At the outbreak of the war, Armenia's GDP was only one-seventh that of Azerbaijan and its population was less than one-third of that of Azerbaijan.
The economy determines the superstructure, and Azerbaijan's military strength at this time has been greatly improved, spending 80 million US dollars to buy a large number of Turkey's ** equipment, forming a very complete drone combat system, with a strength of about 90,000 troops, more than 2 times that of Armenia, and military spending is even more crushing, almost 5 times that of Armenia.
And that's not all, since Azerbaijanis are mostly Muslims, they are natural brothers and allies with Turkey. And Armenia, which is adjacent to Turkey, practices ** religion. Therefore, Turkey has repeatedly openly supported Azerbaijan on several occasions, while becoming hostile to its own neighbor Armenia.
In September 2020, the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out again.
At this time, Russia, which is Armenia's greatest ally, did not openly support Armenia out of self-interest. Without the support of Russia, Armenia was almost completely in a state of passive beating, with a large number of personnel and heavy losses in equipment, and the results were obvious.
In the end, Russia couldn't stand it anymore and sent troops to stop both sides, and under the mediation of Russia, the three parties signed a ceasefire agreement, and Armenia finally surrendered. At that time, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was already hanging by a thread.
In 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, Russia and Ukraine fought fiercely, and Russia suffered sanctions from Western countries. Azerbaijan keenly seized the opportunity and sent troops to attack Armenia again on September 19, 2023. At this time, Russia is deeply involved in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and has no time to take care of Armenia, and Azerbaijan won easily in less than a day.
Without the support of Russia, Armenia was defeated, the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic directly surrendered to Azerbaijan, completely leaving Armenia, and the 32-year-old Nagorno-Karabakh Republic officially withdrew from the stage of history.
Whether the demise of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic will ease relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is unknown.
We only hope that, with the demise of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan will be able to live together in peace in the years to come, returning peace to the people of Nagorno-Karabakh and peace to the people of the world for the benefit of all mankind.
February** Dynamic Incentive Program