Guangzhou took the lead in lifting the purchase limit for more than 120 houses
Guangzhou announced on January 27 that it will no longer restrict the purchase of more than 120 homes. Properties that are rented or listed** are no longer counted in the number of units that can be purchased.
In addition, the transfer object of commercial and service properties is no longer restricted, and enterprises and individuals can purchase it. In September last year, Guangzhou adjusted the purchase restriction areas to Yuexiu, Haizhu, Liwan, Tianhe, Baiyun and Nansha, and local residents can buy two houses.
At the same time, the requirements for individual income tax and social security years for foreigners have also been reduced from 5 years to 2 years. This series of measures shows that Guangzhou's attitude towards real estate policy has been quite relaxed.
Suzhou followed suit and fully liberalized restrictions on home purchases
On January 31, Suzhou also announced that it would no longer review the qualifications to buy a house, and at the same time lifted the restrictions on the size and number of units to be purchased. In September last year, Suzhou has allowed outsiders to buy houses below 120 without paying social security and individual income tax, regardless of whether they are registered in Suzhou or non-Suzhou, they can buy three sets under 120, and there is no restriction on those above 120.
Now, this policy has been further relaxed, meaning that there is no longer a restriction on the purchase of more than three homes. However, the question is, in the current market environment, who would choose to buy more than three homes in Suzhou?
Shanghai's policy has been fine-tuned, but tensions remain maintained
At the same time, Shanghai also issued a new real estate policy on January 31. According to the new policy, non-residents who have paid social security and individual income tax for five consecutive years are limited to purchasing one house in areas outside the outer ring except Chongming District. This policy has been relaxed compared to before, but it still imposes strict restrictions on the qualifications of outsiders to buy houses.
Non-registered singles still need to meet a certain number of years and can only buy a house outside the outer ring. As a super first-tier city, Shanghai's real estate policy adjustment is relatively cautious, but it still has attracted widespread attention from the market.
Large cities have collectively relaxed policies: small cities are powerless
This series of policy adjustments shows that the attitude of large cities towards real estate policy is undergoing important changes in 2024. Smaller cities have exhausted all policy tools, while larger cities have more new home buying policies to choose from.
This trend reflects the complexity and diversity of the current real estate market. The policy differences between different cities also reflect the different understandings and coping strategies of the real estate market in different places.
Guangzhou's move to relax the purchase limit of more than 120 housing has received a positive response from the market. In 2023, the transaction volume of 10 million luxury homes in Guangzhou will increase by 60% year-on-year, setting a record high. This trend shows that the luxury property market remains strongly attractive despite the purchase restrictions.
Guangzhou's move not only attracted local wealthy people to buy luxury houses, but also attracted wealthy people from all over the country to invest. The implementation of this policy has further enhanced Guangzhou's status and influence in the national real estate market.
In contrast, Shanghai's transcendent city status determines that it is impossible to loosen too quickly, and Suzhou is the same as not loosening. In addition to the difference from city to city, there is also the difference from house to house.
The logic of differentiation in the real estate market
Do you remember that I mentioned the idea of "just need to go down, improve up"? and improve upward". What does this mean? This is actually a great insight into the structure of the real estate market.
Although the new and second-hand housing markets have risen and fallen as a whole, the internal structure is differentiated. When the market is good, all kinds of real estate rise; In this circulating **, although the index rises and falls, what really determines the market trend is its internal structural differentiation.
This refers to the fact that in the new and second-hand housing markets, although the overall index has risen and fallen, the performance of non-property types is very different. When the market is poor, the differentiation is more obvious. When the market is good, all sectors rise; When the market is poor, the advantages and disadvantages are immediately apparent. From weight, growth, dividends to junk, different styles of properties perform very differently in the market.
Shops and apartments fell first, and suburbs, old and dilapidated school districts, and chaotic communities followed suit, while high-quality properties in good locations were relatively resistant. Shops and apartments fell first, and suburbs and old communities followed, while scarce high-quality houses were able to stabilize their positions.
If you are not picky, such as accepting no unique gas, no property on high floors, etc., you can find cheaper and cheaper houses. This explains why many people feel like house prices have fallen, but in reality good homes are still going strong.
During a boom in the market, almost all types of properties benefit, whether it's new, second-hand, or otherwise. And scarce high-end real estate can stabilize in the market**. But when the market falls into a trough, the differentiation between the ups and downs of the market will be extremely obvious.
Fear of an increase in the proportion of second-hand housing transactions in large cities
Behind this phenomenon, there is also a differentiation between new houses and second-hand houses. Shops and apartments bear the brunt, followed by suburban properties, and even properties in prime locations are not immune.
In Gaoshan's speech, for example, he mentioned that after the housing bubbles in the United States and Spain, the number of second-hand housing transactions fell sharply, but it took several years for the transaction volume to recover. At the same time, our new home transactions have shrunk, but second-hand home transactions have reached new highs. In China, the transaction of new houses has shrunk, but the transaction of second-hand houses has hit a new high.
This differentiation is not only reflected in the quality of the market, but also in the gap between rigid demand and improvement demand. This is mainly due to the fact that developers do not take land, new homes** decrease, coupled with distrust in the delivery of new homes, the demand has shifted to the second-hand housing market. This reflects the lack of land acquisition by developers, the decrease in new homes**, and the distrust of new home delivery, which has shifted demand to the second-hand housing market.
For rigid needs, the types of properties they can choose from are becoming more and more limited, while those high-quality properties that are scarce in the city are as stable as Mount Tai. Behind this, in fact, is the further differentiation of the new housing and second-hand housing markets.
SmallCities can't do it, and big cities don't have to be immune
Large cities are more worried about the increase in the proportion of second-hand housing transactions. Because big cities have more old, remote, surplus houses that are difficult to digest. And everyone is more willing to buy second-hand houses, so what about new houses? If you go to buy a second-hand house, what about the new house? What about planning? This is the dilemma that big cities will face in 2024. As a result, big cities hope to boost the market by encouraging the wealthy to buy new homes.
In his recent speech, for example, Gao noted that both the U.S. and Spain experienced a long period of decline in second-hand housing transactions after the housing bubble burst.
Kerry data shows that even in the case of a year-on-year reduction in land supply plans, the actual land** completion rate is still far below the pre-epidemic average, and the completion rate in first-tier cities is less than half.
However, the data shows that the land ** and completion rate are declining, even in first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the actual completion rate of land supply plans has not exceeded half.
At the same time, our new home market transactions are also decreasing year on year, but the number of second-hand home transactions has hit a record high in 2023. This shows the weakness and uncertainty of the market. Small cities can't do it, and big cities don't have to be alone.