The situation in Ukraine is volatile, Crimea has become independent, and the future of Donetsk and Luhansk is uncertain.
Ukraine, once a regional power, now seems to be moving away from the goal of "developed". The socio-economic development of the country is not stable, and the oligarchs in the country are strong, and the living standards of the people are declining.
In addition, the situation in the eastern part of Ukraine has been volatile since 2014, which also poses a great challenge to the country's development.
In the former Soviet Union, Ukraine was a regional hegemon and radiant. However, since the collapse of the former Soviet Union, Ukraine's path seems to be getting narrower and narrower. Especially since the 2014 referendum on Crimea's accession to Russia, Ukraine seems to be moving towards "**" and "developed" is also gradually moving away.
So, how do these phenomena come about?
The Crimean Peninsula is located in the south of Russia, bordering Ukraine to the north, Russia to the south, and bordering the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.
Historically, both Ukraine and Russia coveted this piece of "fat", and after years of tug-of-war, until 1954, the Crimean region looked relatively stable because Ukraine remained pro-Russian after independence.
However, after Yushchenko took office in 2005, this calm was shattered and the situation was reversed.
Yushchenko, a Ukrainian who strongly supports the West, firmly believes that only by being close to the West can Ukraine truly go to the world. To this end, he actively promoted a number of cooperation agreements with the European Union, gradually alienating relations with Russia.
However, after the pro-Russian Yanukovych came to power, he tried to restore relations with Russia, but it caused strong opposition from the pro-Western population in the country. The Maidan Revolution of 2014 broke out, Yanukovych was forced to **, and at the same time Crimea was proclaimed"Independence"。
Pro-Western demonstrations in Ukraine were in full swing in 2014, with fierce clashes with pro-Russian factions in eastern Ukraine. Crimea was the first to stand up and demand "independence" and join Russia.
After that, Russia took de facto control of Crimea. Although Ukraine has always claimed to "recapture" Crimea, in fact, it does not have the ability to do so. And on March 16 of that year, Crimea held a referendum, and the results of the vote showed that more than 96% of voters supported joining Russia.
Just the next day, Crimea declared its independence and demanded to join Russia. This decision caused great discontent within Ukraine, however, it seems that Ukraine can do nothing but anger.
Because from the very beginning, Ukraine's approach seems to have been wrong, pushing Crimea further and further away until Crimea "became independent in anger".
Although the Crimean region is inhabited by more than 20 ethnic groups, Russians remain the dominant local ethnic group, using Russian as the main language. Due to the importance that Ukraine attaches to the Crimea region, Ukraine** has been sending additional troops to the region since independence.
Data show that at the beginning of 2014, before the independence of Crimea, there were already about 2 armies and a large number of modern military facilities in the region. Therefore, the inhabitants of Crimea are more inclined to Russian culture and, moreover, have a strong military force.
The Crimean independence movement did not take place as a result of the Ukrainian military surge, which could not emotionally win the support of the Crimean people. In fact, the "pro-Western anti-Russian"** and the overthrow of Yanukovych** in Ukraine have made many people in eastern Ukraine, including Crimea, dissatisfied.
In addition, Ukraine's sanctions against Crimea, such as "cutting off water and electricity" and "suspending retirement salaries", made the people of Crimea even more disgusted with the Ukrainian authorities, and the final approval rating of 96% amply proves this.
The independence of Crimea marked the beginning of a kind of "doom" for Ukraine. After the successful independence of Crimea, other Russian-speaking regions of eastern Ukraine also began to show signs of "imminent action".
The Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine do not support pro-Western Ukraine, and Ukraine's economic and military power is declining. As a result, on April 28, 2014 and May of the same year, the two regions declared the "Luhansk People's Republic" and the "Donetsk People's Republic", respectively.
They have asked Russia and 14 other countries and the United Nations to recognize their independence, but they have not yet been recognized by Ukraine or the international community.
There are accusations that these independence movements are behind Russian manipulation, and the international community is skeptical.
However, this did not prevent the Donetsk *** armed forces from announcing their secession from Ukraine in November of the same year. Although the "independence" and "accession to Russia" of these two states have not yet been universally recognized, in fact they are already under the de facto control of Russia.
These two oblasts are important "industrial oblasts" within Ukraine, and the loss of them is a heavy blow to Ukraine. But from another point of view, it seems that Putin is also in a difficult position for Russia to actually "annex" Donetsk and Luhansk.
After all, the referendum on Crimea's accession to Russia has caused Russia to fall into Western sanctions, although these sanctions have not shaken Russia's foundations, but still have a certain impact on Russia's oil and gas export industry, and have had a certain adverse impact on Russia's economy.
The geographical location of Crimea is crucial for Russia, as it is a precious opportunity. Therefore, Russia will do whatever it takes to retake Crimea, even in the face of sanctions.
In July 2020, when Donetsk and Luhansk again proposed independence referendums, Moscow responded that it did not know about it and did not know if they had specific plans to turn against Russia.
Despite Putin's desire to annex Donetsk and Luhansk, the consequences of the annexation of Crimea to Russia continue, and if Putin again annexes Ukrainian lands at this point, the United States may push him into a corner.
It is clear that the United States is going downhill, Russia just needs to be patient, and future opportunities for territorial expansion will arise without impatience. Although it is unlikely that Russia will truly dismember Ukraine in the short term, Crimea has seceded from Ukraine, Donetsk and Luhansk are also fighting for independence, and eastern Ukraine** has put it in a difficult situation.
Some analysts believe that Ukraine's current predicament may be due to the fact that they have chosen the wrong path and direction, falling into the dilemma of choosing between "pro-Russian" and "pro-Western", and it seems that only by choosing between these two can Ukraine find the real direction of development.
However, they may have missed a path that would really benefit Ukraine, and that is to "rely on yourself". In the wrestling between the West and Russia, Ukraine seems to have fallen victim.
The West wants Ukraine to maintain tensions with Russia, as this country is their biggest threat to Russia. Although at the moment, it seems that the West does not want to openly support Ukraine, they will never give up on it.
Therefore, whether Ukraine chooses the West or Russia, it will be counterattacked by the other side, which will ultimately harm its own interests. So, where does the future of Ukraine go in this case?
Ukraine is located between the EU and Russia, and is not only a must for NATO's eastward expansion, but also the center of gravity for Russia's westward defense. If we retain a large number of nuclear weapons and advanced equipment left over from the former Soviet Union, we may be able to strike a balance between the two major forces and embark on the road of independent development.
However, in the current situation, Ukraine seems to have to choose between the West and Russia, but whichever side it chooses, it risks becoming a pawn. In addition, the political situation in Ukraine has been volatile since 2018, and if the domestic socio-economic situation cannot be improved, even if Putin has no intention of dismembering Ukraine, it may lead to the development of Ukraine.
In recent years, populist sentiment has risen at home because Ukraine's position in the West is not valued. They aspire to get rid of Russian control, and at the same time oppose Western interference.
However, it is still unknown whether Ukraine will be able to truly achieve the independent development of its own country. Although the return of Crimea to Russia is unlikely, it may be possible to change the attitude of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The return of Crimea is a combination of the right time, the right place and the right people, but this does not mean that other states can follow suit.
If Ukraine can truly find a way to eliminate the oligarchy, reverse its destiny, and achieve social and economic development and progress, then the eastern region of Ukraine may become much more "stable".
It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will be "dismembered" in the future, or whether it will usher in a new situation and become a regional power after a lot of hardship.
But if the Ukrainian people can change their mindset, neither Russia nor the West can rely on it for a long time, because in international politics, national interests take precedence, and once Ukraine touches the other party's national interests, only Ukraine will bear the consequences.
In short, if Ukraine is to achieve sustainable development and recoup the loss of Donetsk and Luhansk, it must embark on an independent development path, or Russia will not hesitate to pursue territorial expansion when the time comes.