[Value Catalog]: Research Report Center with Views.
Supply side: China dominates the global supply of rare earths, but the development of overseas smelting and separation industry cannot be underestimated. According to US USGS data, China's rare earth ore reserves in 2022 were 44 million tons of REO, accounting for 33 percent of the world's total reserves8%。Since the start of supply-side reform, ChinaRare earth industryIt has entered intensive development from the extensive development stage, forming a new pattern of production led by the two major rare earth groups in the north and south under the guidance of national indicators.
In 2023, the total control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in China will be 2550,000 tons and 2440,000 tons of REO, a year-on-year increase of 214% and 207%, 70% of the world's rare earth mining and the vast majority of separation capacity are located in China, which dominates the worldRare earth industrySupply. On the other hand, in recent years, with the support of various countries, overseas smelting and separation capacity has developed rapidly, MP has begun to produce praseodymium neodymium, and Lynas also plans to increase the production capacity of praseodymium neodymium in Malaysia factory to 1050,000 tons, the development speed of overseas smelting and separation industry cannot be underestimated. 
Demand side: In the context of energy structure transformation, high-end NdFeB opens up demand growth space. In the context of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and global economic recovery, new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power generation, and energy-saving air conditioning have contributed to the main marginal increase at present. According to our estimates, by 2025, the world's high-performance NdFeB will be as high as 1440,000 tons, with a CAGR of 12 for the next three years8%, the industry is expected to continue to maintain high growth. Among them, the demand for new energy vehicles is 560,000 tons, with a CAGR of 24 for the next three years3%, contributing to the main increment, the inflection point of wind power and consumer electronics demand has appeared, which has been repaired with the completion of technological transformation and global economic recovery, respectively. In the long term, the demand for NdFeB for humanoid robots may be the same as that of new energy vehicles, and it is expected to bring a pull comparable to the demand for magnetic materials for new energy vehicles in the future.
The supply and demand of praseodymium neodymium oxide is expected to remain tight, and the center has risen. From the calculation of the diameter of the ore end, assuming that the growth rate of the index continues to decline and the import of Myanmar ore decreases, it is expected that the supply and demand of praseodymium and neodymium will be 0 in 2023-202560/0.26/-0.130,000 tons, taking into account the deviation between the index task and the actual production of the enterprise and the instability of rare earth ore imports, the actual supply is less than the theoretical supply of the index, and it is expected that the supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance in 2024 and 2025, and the supply elasticity mainly depends on the expansion progress of the Lynas smelting and separation plant.
From 2013 to 2020, praseodymium neodymium oxide is mainly between 30-400,000 yuan, and at present, due to the increase in the proportion of high-end rare earth permanent magnets on the demand side and the development of some high-cost mines, the center has risen. After a downward trend in 2023, praseodymium neodymium is expected to stabilize in 2024 and finally slightly in 2025, which can still be at a high level compared to history.
Investment Advice:
Supply side, domesticRare earth industryThe concentration of the supply side is increasing, and the production and separation of rare earths are regulated by the index control, so it is recommended to pay attention to China rare earth and northern rare earth, which are expected to be injected by the group and are expected to continue to undertake the growth of the indexOn the demand side, when rare earth ** is expected to stabilize, we should pay attention to the rare earth permanent magnet companies Jinli Permanent Magnet and Ningbo Yunsheng, which are expanding smoothly in the current field of new energy vehicles and the layout of the field of humanoid robots that are expected to continue to drive demand growth in the future. 
Key listed companies
In the context of the global energy transition structure, the downstream fields dominated by new energy vehicles have brought new demand to the rare earth industry, and rare earth ** has also shifted from supply-driven to demand-driven, and China will still dominate the global rare earth industry in the future. From the perspective of the supply side, domestic rare earths are mainly affected by policy adjustment factors, so it is recommended to pay attention to 1) the northern light rare earth leader Northern Rare Earth, which has the world's best quality rare earth ore Baiyun Obo Mine as a resource guarantee and can carry the increment of China's main rare earth indicators2) China Rare Earth, which has the potential to continue to empower China Rare Earth Group, a leading heavy rare earth group in the south.
From the demand side, when the rare earth is expected to stabilize, we should pay attention to the rare earth permanent magnet companies that are expanding smoothly in the current field of new energy vehicles and are expected to continue to drive demand growth in the future: 1) In recent years, it has developed rapidly in the field of new energy vehicles and began to lay out Jinli permanent magnets in the field of humanoid robots2) Profound heritage.
Ningbo Yunsheng in the field of new energy vehicles and energy conservation and environmental protection.
This is an abridged excerpt from the report, the original PDF of the report
Non-ferrous metals-rare earth industry in-depth report: supply and demand pattern reshaping, rare earth strategic value continues to increase-Huafu**-20240109[41 pages]".
Report**: Value Catalog