In the current real estate market environment, the sales pressure of real estate companies is increasing day by day, and the tight capital chain has become a common phenomenon. In order to quickly return funds, real estate companies after the Spring Festival are very likely to adopt a price reduction strategy to attract the attention of home buyers. This trend has undoubtedly created a huge challenge for people who are ready to buy a home.
Judging from the current trend of housing prices and the strategy of developers, now may be a relatively good time to buy a home for those who just need to buy a home. However, buyers who just need to buy a house are also worried that after buying a house, the house price will continue to **, resulting in a serious shrinkage of their assets. After all, housing prices are still at a high level, and the average family often needs to pour into decades of savings and bear the burden of a mortgage for twenty or thirty years.
In this context, even those who just need to buy a house for their own use hope that their property can maintain or even increase in value. On the other hand, if you don't buy a house in time, you are worried that the price of housing will skyrocket in the short term, which makes it more difficult for you to bear the financial pressure of buying a house. This concern is not unfounded, and past experience has proven many times that housing prices happen from time to time.
In recent years, housing prices have shown a downward trend in many cities, but the overall level is still high. How will house prices play out in the next five years? Will it continue to fall, or will it repeat the mistakes of the past and reappear sharply**? This is a question in the minds of many people. Five years from now, will housing prices be as affordable as cabbage, or as expensive as diamonds? This undoubtedly stakes the fate of many people for decades to come. On this core issue, Li Ka-shing and Wang Jianlin's views coincide.
Wang Jianlin boldly stated in 2013 the direction of housing prices in the next 10 years. When asked about the trend of housing prices in first- and second-tier cities, he confidently said that the prices in these cities will continue**. He explained that every year there is an influx of rural people into these cities, and the increase in population means an increase in demand for housing, injecting vitality into the economy, which in turn supports housing prices. However, for third- and fourth-tier cities, he is relatively cautious. He pointed out that the economic development of these cities is relatively lagging behind, and the phenomenon of population loss is serious, so the space for housing prices** is limited.
Today, 9 years later, we look back at Wang Jianlin's ** and find that the housing prices in the first and second tier cities are indeed as he said, although they have been ** in recent years, but they are still strong. However, the trend of housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities has exceeded his expectations. In the past few years, housing prices in these cities have risen even more than in some first- and second-tier cities.
So, what caused the surprise in housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities**? Some experts pointed out that the impact of the policy on housing prices may have exceeded Wang Jianlin's expectations. In fact, the 2015 monetization and resettlement policy implemented by the state has largely contributed to the soaring housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities. This policy shift has led to a large influx of capital into the property market, and at the same time has given rise to a large number of evicted households. For third- and fourth-tier cities with more shantytown renovation projects, this policy has undoubtedly injected a strong impetus into housing prices.
In addition, the purchase restrictions in first- and second-tier cities have also prompted many investors to turn their attention to the real estate market in third- and fourth-tier cities, further pushing up property prices in these cities. However, in recent years, housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities have fluctuated greatly, indicating that it is difficult for housing prices to remain firm without sustained population support.
In recent years, the state has gradually withdrawn from the policy of renovating shantytowns and demolishing them, and has instead implemented the old reform model. This means that the property market environment in third- and fourth-tier cities will return to the status quo of six years ago, but housing prices are much higher than then. Therefore, after losing the help of demolition compensation and investors, it is expected that most third- and fourth-tier cities will face continuous downward pressure on housing prices in the next five years.
However, the situation is very different in Tier 1 and hot Tier 2 cities. Due to the continued influx of people, there is a high probability that house prices will be again in the next 5 years, even if housing prices are short-term**.
In addition, Li Ka-shing, Asia's richest man, is also cautious about the outlook for the real estate sector. The real estate industry is likely to face a difficult period in the coming years. The main reason is that the overheating of the property market in the past few years has consumed a lot of demand for home purchases, and there may be a risk of "demand drying up" in the future. This also explains Li Ka-shing's pessimistic attitude towards the real estate sector: current housing prices are on the high side, housing resources are overstocked, and market demand is shrinking.
In the real estate industry, profits are being peeled away, but risks are always present. For Li Ka-shing, it's almost done"The final copper plate"。Indeed, like the evolution of many industries over the course of history, the real estate industry has also gone through decades of glorious years. However, now that market conditions have changed, with a surplus of housing resources, high housing prices, and strengthened state regulation, that kind of all-round support has become a thing of the past. Although there is still room for profitability in the real estate sector, Li Ka-shing has decided to withdraw from the market after careful consideration and bravely take on new challenges.
However, Li Ka-shing is still optimistic about the development of the property market in first- and second-tier hot cities. He firmly believes that the factor that determines the value of a property is always the location, the location, or the location. Because of this, he still has land banks and projects to be developed in several popular cities. This means that despite some doubts about the future of the real estate sector as a whole and phasing out, he is still confident in the direction of house prices in some hot cities.
Although Wang Jianlin and Li Ka-shing have different views, they both point to the same conclusion. In the next 5 years, the housing prices in first- and second-tier hot cities will continue to be the first to shine as the population continues to flow in, and its value will shine like a diamond. In third- and fourth-tier cities where the population continues to flow out, housing prices may stagnate or **, especially in those cities with serious population losses, it is not surprising that there are cabbage prices. At present, cities such as Hegang, Yumen and Fuxin are already showing such a trend.