Haitong International ** Group *** Yang Bin recently conducted research on Shenghong shares and released a research report "Energy Storage + Charging Pile Business Dual Drive, Shipment Structure is Expected to Continue to Improve", this report gives an overweight rating to Shenghong shares, and believes that its target price is 44$88, the current share price is 2651 yuan, the expected range of ** is 6929%。
Shenghong shares (300693).
please see appendix1for english summary)
Shenghong Co., Ltd. released its 2023 performance forecast. On January 18, the company released a performance forecast, and the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 350-4.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5657%-92.35%；Realized the deduction of non-net profit 329-4.0.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5466%-92.27%。The revenue of the company's energy storage division and charging pile division increased significantly compared with the same period last year, driving the company's overall revenue and net profit in 2023 to increase significantly. The growth rate of performance in 2023 is in line with expectations.
23Q3 revenue decreased sequentially, and gross margin increased sequentially. 23Q3 revenue decreased sequentially, and gross margin increased sequentially. In 23Q3, the company achieved revenue of 63.1 billion yuan, +634%/-3.6%；The net profit attributable to the parent company was 09.2 billion yuan, +45 year-on-year8%/-22.9%。The quarter-on-quarter decline in Q3 revenue was mainly due to the slower than expected growth rate of overseas energy storage, intensified competition in the charging pile market, and increased expenses due to business expansion. 23Q3 gross margin was 435%, +26ppt, mainly due to a slight increase in the gross profit margin of energy storage and charging piles from the previous month. The company's energy storage products have completed a number of international certifications, and the overseas market has a first-mover advantage, with overseas energy storage revenue accounting for more than 50%, and the scale effect of the superimposed charging pile business has reduced costs, and the company's gross profit margin has remained stable. In 23Q4, the company's new orders are sufficient, and the large storage PCS** has bottomed out, and we expect revenue to increase slightly month-on-month, and the shipment structure is expected to continue to improve.
Policies and demand resonate, and the construction of overseas public piles has accelerated. According to data from the China Charging Alliance, in December 2023, 10 new public charging piles will be added in China00,000 units, +51 year-on-year7% -1%, a total of 9260,000 units, +42 year-on-year7%；Among them, 44 DC charging piles20,000 units, +52% y/y. According to EAFO data, 3 new public piles in the 27 EU countries in 23Q490,000 units, of which DC piles accounted for 274%, +50% year-on-year, and a total of 185 units, of which DC piles accounted for 253%, +77 year-on-year0%, the construction of overseas charging piles accelerated. The company has been deeply involved in the charging pile business for more than ten years, focusing on power electronics technology, and a number of charging pile products have obtained EU and other certifications, and has established cooperative relations with overseas leading energy companies, and is expected to benefit from the growth space of the domestic and overseas charging pile market in the future.
Investment advice: We expect the company to achieve operating income in 2023-2025. $7.5 billion; Realize net profit attributable to the parent company. $5.2 billion (unchanged). The company's new orders are sufficient, overseas growth demand is confirmed, and the shipment structure is expected to continue to improve. However, considering the intensification of competition in the industry and the impact on the overall valuation of the sector, the company is given 22 times PE in 2024 (originally 37 in 2023.)98x PE), with a target price of 50$51 down 11% to $4488 yuan, maintaining the "better than the market" rating.
Risk warning: changes in new energy related industrial policies; The demand of the energy storage industry is less than expected; The development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles does not meet expectations; The business expansion of charging piles is not as expected.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Zhu Yue of China Securities Construction Investment Co., Ltd. has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is 7802%, its **2023 attributable net profit is 400 million, and the **PE converted according to the current price is 1991。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 15 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with 8 ratings ** and 7 overweight ratings. The average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 4454。
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