The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,700 points to 2,666 on Friday33 points. Fortunately, it still remained at 2,700 points after **, but unfortunately the GEM failed to touch 1,600 points after **1,512 points, and all in all, ** still seems to have lost its way. Annular. Will this trend continue to increase in the future?
Message One:
Class A** experienced two consecutive years** in the previous year and last year**, and experienced depth** in early 2024, causing both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index to fall to new lows in recent years. In the face of irrationality, the establishment of a closely monitored level has begun to be discussed again.
Why does everyone want to start leveling**? The role of leveling is to smooth the irrational fluctuations of the market and stabilize the market order by conducting reverse trading in the market, that is, when the stock price is too low, and selling when the stock price is too high.
Many mature markets have set up leveling. A-shares experienced significant volatility in 2015. The joint entry of China Financial Shares and Huijin Company eased market sentiment. It is understood that leveling has a certain impact on the stability of the level.
In the past, various good news came out frequently, but the three major stock indexes were still fluctuating irrationally and violently, seriously deviating from the fundamentals, and confidence was seriously shaken. Stable**.
If the level is expected to play a role, it is likely to form a psychological foundation and enhance investment confidence. It will also indirectly affect the structure of the market, increase market liquidity, and facilitate market trading and investment.
In addition, the launch of leveling can create a safe buffer zone, so that investors no longer worry about the market and make more rational investments and decisions.
Message 2:
Recently, there is a saying in the market that some ** companies use their ** ETFs to lend to short sellers by refinancing, earning high interest, and at the same time leading to an increase in ** selling.
It is also said that the net inflow of **ETF in January exceeded 160 billion yuan, which is a conspiracy of short sellers, who want to use ETFs as a short tool.
Is there any basis for these claims?
The answer to the verification is that lending through refinancing is legal and compliant, and the company lends through refinancing to increase income, and this part of the income will be fully included in the net value.
More importantly, there are 6 ETFs with a scale of more than 50 billion yuan in the market, and the market value of their refinancing lending business accounts for no more than 6% of the scale, which indicates that the company has not lent the company to the company. Large size.
The management also has a clear limit on the borrowing rate, and the assets borrowed by the ETF must not exceed 30% of the size, which is understandable, and the reason for shorting the ETF is not ***
From the perspective of the overall market situation, as of the end of last year, 264 ETFs announced a total market value of 730 refinancing loan business$2.2 billion; This can be said to be insignificant compared to the current total market value of A-shares. About 69 trillion yuan.
And what about the **company lent** went**? Generally, borrowers are mostly private equity firms. These serve two purposes: the first is to protect against risks. In this case, they will be holding both the ETF and the individual**, so it will not affect the market.
The other is short selling, in which case they will sell bonds, **ETFs, which will put some pressure on the market.
So how much pressure is that? As of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the total scale of securities lending and borrowing in the whole market was 7159.7 billion, less than the scale of refinancing 11041.7 billion, indicating that the refinancing is not all used for short selling.
It can be seen that the rumors of **refinancing and expected short selling** have no basis and the impact is very small. So who's shorting?
*Will it start to be significant**?
Judging from the first news, **eager to level** to stabilize the continuous decline of the three major stock indexes.
According to news 2, the reason is not securities lending and refinancing business, but the reason may be the sell-off caused by investor sentiment concerns, and if the sentiment sell-off ends, will it continue? At the end of the market? Don't you fall?
But if it has gone through a historical trend of 19 years, it will be rapid after the New Year.