Tuyere financial reporter Shi Bingbing.
At the beginning, the economy was fought and investment took the lead.
Just after the Spring Festival holiday, the centralized start of major projects in various places sent a signal to accelerate the expansion of investment: in Zhejiang's 2024 "thousands of trillions" major projects concentrated start activities, 333 projects with a total investment of 9770The project of 600 million yuan was put into operation in a centralized manner; Jiangxi's major projects with a total investment of 680.5 billion yuan in the first quarter were started; Dongguan, Foshan and other places in Guangdong have also launched the construction of centralized projects.
Investment, in the present view, is demand, and in the long run, it is supply. At the beginning of the new year, many provinces have taken the attitude of "starting and sprinting", giving full play to the key role of stable investment in stabilizing growth, and making every effort to promote a good start in the first quarter. In the new year, what kind of investment growth targets and annual plans have the provinces set? Do you want to invest in a big project? What impact will it have on economic development?
Many provinces will lower investment growth targets in 2024 Recently, many provinces have clarified the expected growth targets for fixed asset investment in 2024, specifically, Hainan, Liaoning, and Shanxi are targeted to grow at about 10%, Henan, Anhui, and Heilongjiang are targeted at about 7%, Hebei, Zhejiang, and Gansu are targeted at about 6%, and Guangdong, Chongqing, and Jilin are targeting growth rates below 5%.
In fact, compared with the higher fixed asset investment growth target generally set by the local government in 2023, the target of most provinces in 2024 has been lowered.
At the beginning of last year, Guangdong proposed that the growth rate of fixed asset investment would be more than 8%, and the total annual investment would exceed 1 trillion yuan, but in 2023, Guangdong's fixed asset investment will be 444 trillion yuan, an increase of 25%, which is weaker than expected. In 2023, Henan's fixed asset investment will increase by 67%, also lower than the expected target of 10%, this year Henan set the fixed investment growth target at 7%. Looking at Hunan again, the actual growth rate of Hunan fixed investment in 2023 will be -31%, well below the target of 7%, Hunan lowered its forecast this year.
Although most provinces have lowered their expected targets, investment is still one of the main tasks of the local government this year, and many provinces have written more in the work report on increasing industrial investment and building a modern industrial system. Investment is one of the troika that drives economic growth, and major projects are "driving horses".
On February 19, 2024, at the construction site of the Xuantian Lake Bridge of the Chengdu-Chongqing Central High-speed Railway, located in Tongliang District, Chongqing, staff are working on the construction (drone**) Xinhua News Agency.
For example, in Jiangsu, on January 2, at the kick-off meeting of major projects in Jiangsu Province, Nobunaga Xing, Secretary of the Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee, emphasized that the premise is green and low-carbon, support capacity, and project sustainability, and the quantity is more dependent on quality and efficiency, the volume is more dependent on the scientific and technological content and green content, the fiscal and tax contributions are more focused on the driving and leading effect, and the current output is more dependent on the future competitiveness.
This year, Hainan Province has arranged 295 major formal projects, with a total investment of 774.4 billion yuan and an annual planned investment of 125.5 billion yuan. It is understood that Hainan will continue to take effective measures, strengthen supervision services, continue to do a good job in the rolling adjustment of the project library, and take the establishment and improvement of the rapid resolution mechanism for major projects, the joint review and approval mechanism and other reforms as a breakthrough point, and open up the integration of capital planning, finance, forestry and other industry information platforms to ensure the smooth completion of the annual investment plan for major provincial projects in 2024.
Strategic emerging industries are the direction of development The 2023 ** Economic Work Conference emphasizes "expanding effective investment", and major projects are the "ballast stone" of economic development and an important starting point for expanding effective investment. After the holiday, major projects in many provinces started earlier and more vigorously than in the past, and from the perspective of investment, industrial projects, especially manufacturing projects, have been widely valued.
Taking Zhejiang as an example, as the first of the "ten major projects" that Zhejiang focuses on implementing, it will expand the effective investment in the "thousands of trillions" project, that is, "rolling about 1,000 major projects every year and completing an investment of more than 1 trillion yuan". In 2023, 1,244 major projects in Zhejiang will complete an investment of 1,297.6 billion yuan, accounting for about one-third of the province's total fixed asset investment. For Zhejiang, industrial projects have always been the focus of investment, and among the 185 projects that started on February 18, 87 were industrial projects, with a total investment of 181.3 billion yuan.
In the first quarter of this year, among the 1,139 provincial large and medium-sized projects planned to start in Jiangxi, there were 524 projects in the manufacturing field, with a total investment of 356.4 billion yuan, accounting for more than 50% of the total investment, which fully reflects Jiangxi's insistence on taking industrial projects as the top priority of expanding investment.
On February 19, 2024, in the intelligent workshop of Runma Solar Technology (Jinhua)**8GW high-efficiency photovoltaic TOPCon battery project located in Jinyi New District, Jinhua City, Zhejiang, the A** intelligent robot is in automatic operation. *Xinhua.
Looking further, in the list of projects in various places this year, strategic emerging industries "play the leading role".
On February 19, Shanghai announced the list of major projects in 2024, and among the 191 formal projects planned and arranged, there are 76 science and technology industry projects. In the list of major provincial projects issued and implemented by Jiangsu in 2024, there are 186 strategic emerging industries and future industry projects, an increase of 25 over the previous year7%, accounting for 80% of manufacturing projects.
Focusing on high-quality development, Guangdong has arranged 1,508 provincial key construction projects this year, with an annual planned investment of 1 trillion yuan, of which more than half are industrial projects, and more than 370 projects are brought together in four major industries, including new generation information technology, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, and new materials, with an annual investment of about 150 billion yuan.
Jiangsu Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology released the list of major industrial projects in Jiangsu in 2024 on February 20, this year's major industrial projects in Jiangsu focus on the renewal of traditional industries, the growth of emerging industries, and the cultivation of future industries5%；There are 77 future industry projects, accounting for 128%。
In the formation of the main position of new quality productivity, "early planning and quick drying" Major projects have been started in a concentrated manner, which has become a prescribed action in many provinces in recent years, and has also continuously transmitted new trends and trends.
Although the key investment areas of different provinces are different, the development logic behind them is similar: "early planning and quick drying" on the main front of generating and developing new quality productivity, and accumulating momentum for high-quality economic development.
Judging from the "big moves" in various places, there are traces of this trend change. Among the first batch of major projects in Anhui, the top ten emerging industry projects accounted for 55%; Among the 11th phase of Henan's "three batches" signed projects, the total investment in advanced manufacturing and strategic emerging industry projects exceeded 592 billion yuan; 25 industrial projects in Xiamen have been started in a centralized manner, involving new energy, new materials and other fields.
Strategic emerging industries and future industries are the main fronts of new quality productivity, and scientific and technological innovation is regarded as the top priority in the work plan of the new year in many places. In the face of the new year's goal of expanding investment and maintaining growth, at this year's "First Meeting of the New Year", local governments have also shown different measures to support the construction and development of scientific and technological innovation.
In an interview with Tuyere Finance, Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China Chief Economist and Research Director Pang Ming said that in terms of project construction quality, it should be grasped from the dimensions of factor guarantee, engineering feasibility, operational effectiveness, financial rationality, impact sustainability, and risk controllability, so as to promote the transformation of investment projects into effective investment and accelerate the formation of more physical workload.