Gao Ruidong Retail and auto sales fell, and U.S. consumption cooled as expected

Authors: Gao Ruidong, Liu Xingchen, Zhou Xinping (Gao Ruidong is the chief macroeconomist of Everbright and a member of the China Chief Economist Forum).

Bullet point:

Key takeaways:

Affected by the high base in December 2023, the month-on-month growth rate of retail consumption in January 2024 was under pressure. With the Christmas holiday season over, there is less demand for family shopping, 1, 2024

The month-on-month growth rate of U.S. consumption declined significantly, of which non-store retail, grocery retail, building materials, automobiles and other consumption were the main drags. In addition,

Some parts of the United States experienced severe cold weather brought by strong cold air in the month, which constrained consumers' willingness to spend. Looking ahead, consider the near-depletion of excess savings by U.S. residents and the dependence of U.S. consumers during the spending season.

The month-on-month growth rate of U.S. retail sales was lower than market expectations, indicating that the U.S. consumer market is starting to enter a cooling channel, but the path of interest rate cuts still needs to depend on inflation and employment data.

The data all point to the fact that the U.S. economy is still relatively resilient, so the market's expected rate cut path remains stable after the release of relatively cold retail sales data

The U.S. retail sales data fell in the month, with consumption such as no-store retail, grocery store retail, building materials, and automobiles being the main drag.

a) Retail: subject to December 2023Affected by the high base of the month, the month-on-month growth rate of retail consumption was under pressure, of which, there was no store retail (-0.8%), grocery retail (-3.).0%) and clothing and its accessories (-0..)2%), and the month-on-month growth rate of consumption declined; (2) Automobile consumptionAffected by the continued impact of high interest rates, the demand for automobile consumption weakened, with a month-on-month growth rate-1.7%；(3) Furniture and home decoration:

The U.S. real estate market is expected to start a new round of upward cycle this year, with furniture and home decoration consumption growing month-on-month (

The U.S. consumer market is cooling, and the market expects a rate cut as early as this yearJune.

The monthly U.S. consumption data fell back and was lower than market expectations, indicating that the U.S. consumer market has entered a cooling channel

Some parts of the United States experienced cold and wet weather brought by strong cold air in the month, which constrained consumers' willingness to spend.

The monthly employment data shows that the income side of US residents will remain relatively resilient in the short term, and the corresponding cooling rate of consumption will be relatively slow.

During the Spring Festival, the domestic flow of people was active, driving the rapid recovery of the consumer market. During the Spring Festival this year, the scale of population flow expanded, and the passenger flow of the Spring Festival reached a record high. According to the data of the Ministry of Transport, in the first 22 days of the Spring Festival this year, the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society increased compared with the same period in 2023 and 2019. 9%。From the perspective of travel mode, the number of self-driving and outbound people has increased significantly this year. In terms of consumption, the consumption of life services such as tourism, catering, accommodation and entertainment performed well. From Chinese New Year's Eve to the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, the amount of online payment transactions increased year-on-yearMeituan data shows that the average daily consumption scale during the Spring Festival holiday increased year-on-year36, an increase of more than 155 over the same period in 2019, and consumption in areas below the fourth tier grew at the fastest year-on-year. Among them, "Tourist New Year".There are more and more groups, and the number of tourists and tourism income in many places during the Spring Festival this year are relatively largesignificant growth in the same period in 2023 and 2019; The box office revenue of movies hit a new high, the ticket price was slightly reduced, and the box office contribution of third- and fourth-tier cities increased significantly.

Risk warning: geopolitical risks are volatile, the U.S. economy has fallen more than expected, and the domestic economy has not recovered as expected.

1. Retail sales and auto sales fell, and U.S. consumption cooled down as scheduled

1.1 The U.S. retail sales data fell in January, with consumption of non-store retail, grocery retail, building materials, and automobiles being the main drags

In January, U.S. retail sales fell by 08%, lower than the previous value up 04% (the previous value refers to December 2023, the same below), and the expected decline of 01%。In terms of sub-items, affected by the Christmas holiday, the United States will usher in the peak consumption season in December 2023, and under the high base effect, there will be no store retail in January 2024 (-0.8%), grocery retail (-3.).0%) and clothing and its accessories (-0..)2%), and the month-on-month growth rate of consumption fell significantly. In addition, building materials (-41%), automobiles (-17%), and other non-durable goods consumption growth rate is also relatively low, but considering that the Fed will gradually open up the space for interest rate cuts this year, and the mortgage interest rate will enter a downward channel in the medium and long term, the U.S. real estate market is expected to open a new round of upward cycle this year, and the month-on-month growth rate of furniture and home decoration consumption (+1.).5%) compared to the previous value (-0.).2%), which was the bright spot in January's consumption data.

(1) Affected by the high base in December 2023, the month-on-month growth rate of retail consumption in January 2024 was under pressure

Affected by the Christmas holiday, the United States ushered in the peak consumption season in December 2023, and the month-on-month growth rate of retail consumption in January 2024 was under pressure due to the high base effect. In the "Retail and Auto Sales Heat Up, Holiday Drives Consumption** - December 2023 U.S. Retail Data Review" released on January 18, 2024, we reminded that "the higher-than-expected retail sales data in December 2023 is mainly disturbed by temporary factors during the Christmas holiday, and the consumer market will continue to cool down in the medium and long term." With the end of the Christmas holiday and the decrease in household shopping demand, the month-on-month growth rate of US consumption in January 2024 has declined significantly. Among them, there is no store retail (-0.8%), grocery retail (-3.).0%) and clothing and its accessories (-0..)2%), and the month-on-month growth rate of consumption declined;

(2) Affected by the continued impact of high interest rates, the demand for automobile consumption has weakened

Since 2023, the U.S. auto chain has been gradually restored, and the excess savings of households have further supported the demand for auto consumption, and the annual sales of new cars in the United States in 2023 will increase by 12 compared with 20223% to 15.61 million units, showing a significant recovery. However, in the short term, considering the continuous consumption of excess savings in the United States and the cancellation of some car purchase subsidies under the fiscal recession, such as the new regulations of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA Act) in the United States, which will take effect on New Year's Day 2024, reduce the list of electric vehicle subsidies from 29 to 13, only including local brands, such as Ford, Tesla, etc., while foreign brands such as Audi, BMW, and Nissan will be eliminated, which will restrict residents' demand for cars in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, as the Fed's decision-making framework shifts in 2024, the economy and inflation cool down, and the room for interest rate cuts opens up within the year, the auto loan interest rate enters a downward channel in the medium and long term, and U.S. auto consumption is expected to rebound steadily and gradually recover to the level of 17.05 million units before the epidemic (2019).

In addition, due to repeated geopolitical conflicts in January,** supported by geopolitical risk premiums, the decline in energy consumption narrowed, or gradually turned positive in the first quarter. From October to November 2023, due to the slowdown in overseas demand and the increase in production in non-OPEC+ countries such as the United States, the market accumulated slightly, driving oil prices to continue, and the month-on-month growth rate of gas station consumption increased from -1 in October 20237% fell to -3 in November4%。Recently, due to the continued tension in the Red Sea, international oil prices** have strengthened, and the month-on-month decline in gas station consumption has narrowed to 08%, but expanded to 1. in January 20247%。Looking ahead, considering the current repeated geopolitical conflicts, ** supported by geopolitical risk premiums, the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of energy consumption may gradually turn positive in the first quarter.

(3) The consumption of furniture and home decoration has rebounded significantly, which is the bright spot in the consumption data in January

With the opening of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle in 2024, the medium and long-term mortgage interest rate will enter a downward channel, and the supply and demand ends of the U.S. real estate market will continue to recover. In January 2024, the month-on-month growth rate of furniture and home decoration consumption (+1.5%) compared to the previous value (-0.).2%) rebounded significantly, which was the highlight of the consumption data in January, but due to the high interest rate environment, the consumption of building materials in January was still relatively sluggish, with a month-on-month growth rate of -41%。Considering that the U.S. risk-free interest rate turned downward during the year, the suppression of both ends of the supply and demand of U.S. real estate will gradually ease, and this trend is superimposed with the U.S. replenishment cycle, which is expected to promote the recovery of China's wood products, furniture, home appliances and other real estate chain related products to the United States. (For details, see the January 2, 2024 outgoing report, "The U.S. Housing Market Is Expected to Recover, Which Products Will Benefit from Exports?") —Deconstructing the United States, Part 4).

The U.S. consumption data in January fell below market expectations, indicating that the U.S. consumer market has entered a cooling channel, but the January employment data shows that the income side of U.S. residents will remain relatively resilient in the short term, and the corresponding consumption cooling rate will be relatively slow. First, except for retail sales, which fell by 0 month-on-monthIn addition to 8%, after deducting automobile consumption, the core retail sales data in January also fell by 06%, significantly lower than the market expectation of an increase of 02%, indicating that the U.S. consumer market is relatively cold, and it also indicates that the Christmas shopping season in December last year has just ended, and consumers' wallets are still in the stage of "recuperation".

Second, some parts of the United States experienced cold and wet weather brought by strong cold air in January, which restricted consumers' willingness to spend. January was in time for severe winter weather in parts of the U.S., disrupting economic activity in many parts of the U.S., including severe cold in Texas, heavy snow in the Midwest, and flooding in the Northeast. For example, data from the Bank of America Research Institute shows that in January this year, credit card and credit card spending in the western region of the United States with better weather increased year-on-year, but other regions with poor weather showed year-on-year declines.

Third, considering that the excess savings of U.S. residents are close to being exhausted, and in the middle of the consumption season, U.S. consumers rely on "buy now, pay later", magnifying the risk of future repayment, the consumer market will continue to cool down in the medium to long term. During the Christmas holidays, U.S. consumers spent ahead of time through "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) transactions, which usually do not conduct credit checks, providing short-term credit to a large number of Americans who were otherwise not credit-eligible, supporting consumption in the short term, but when the bill is due (the general repayment cycle is four months), the debt repayment pressure of U.S. consumers in the first to second quarters of 2024 may be further amplified.

Fourth, from the perspective of rhythm, considering that the current U.S. labor market is still relatively tight, such as January 2024, the United States added 35 non-farm payrolls30,000 people, significantly higher than the expected 1800,000 people, hourly wages increased by 4 year-on-year5%, which is higher than the previous value (+4.).1%), pointing to strong wage stickiness, the income side of U.S. residents will remain strong in the short term, the consumer market is still supported, and the corresponding consumption cooling rate will be relatively slow.

The month-on-month growth rate of US retail sales in January was lower than market expectations, indicating that the US consumer market has begun to enter a cooling channel, but the path of interest rate cuts still needs to depend on inflation and employment data. Since February, the larger-than-expected non-farm payrolls and inflation data have pointed to the fact that the U.S. economy is still relatively resilient, pushing the timing of interest rate cuts to move back. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims (for the week ended February 10) released on the same day was 2120,000 people, down from 21 in the previous year80,000, indicating that the U.S. job market is still relatively strong. The US PPI rose by 03%, more than expected by 01%, once again highlighting the stickiness of inflation. As a result, the expected path of rate cuts remained stable after the release of relatively cold retail sales data, with June being the point at which the Fed is priced in to start cutting rates.

Judging from market expectations, interest rate cuts may occur as early as June this year, with a probability of about 5%. According to CME Fed Watch, after the release of retail data, the market expects a probability of an interest rate cut of 8 in March 20245% compared to 10 the day before0%, and the probability of a rate cut in May is 321%, compared to 35 the previous day2%。June this year is the earliest time node for the market to expect an interest rate cut, and the probability of an interest rate cut is about 5%.

2. Domestic observation

The scale of population flow has expanded, and the passenger flow of this year's Spring Festival travel has reached a record high. According to the data of the Ministry of Transport, in the first 22 days of the Spring Festival this year (as of February 16), the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society was about 50900 million passengers, an increase over the same period in 2023 and 2019. 9%。Of these, the railway passenger traffic was 2600 million passengers, an increase over the same period in 2023 and 2019. 7%；The movement of people on the highway was 47700 million passengers, an increase over the same period in 2023 and 2019, respectively. 8%；The passenger volume of civil aviation was 46.79 million, an increase over the same period in 2023 and 2019, respectively. 1%；The passenger volume by water was 17.37 million, an increase of 45 compared with the same period in 2023 and 2019, respectively0%, down 495%。

From the perspective of travel mode, the number of self-driving and outbound people has increased significantly this year. From the perspective of flight execution, 22 days before the Spring Festival (as of February 16), the number of mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and international flights totaled 30730,000 sorties, 7,532 sorties and 31,730 sorties, an increase of % and 896% respectively over the same period in 2023. According to the "2024 Spring Festival Car Rental Self-driving Travel Report" released by Ctrip, the number of domestic car rental self-driving orders during the Spring Festival this year has nearly doubled year-on-year, an increase of more than 400% compared with the Spring Festival in 2019, and the per capita car rental cost has increased by **20% year-on-year; Overseas self-driving tours are also popular, and the number of overseas car rental orders on Ctrip's platform has increased by more than 20 times year-on-year.

During the Spring Festival, the domestic flow of people was active, driving the rapid recovery of the consumer market. In 2024, from Chinese New Year's Eve to the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, Netlink Clearing Company and China UnionPay will process a total of 153 online payment transactions800 million, amount 774 trillion yuan, an increase of 15 percent year-on-year8% and 101%。Among them, catering, accommodation, tourism, retail, film and television entertainment and other consumption scenarios are particularly popular, with the transaction value and number of transactions increasing by more than 20% year-on-year. On February 15, Meituan released the "2024 Spring Festival "Eat, Drink and Play" Consumption Insight Report. The report shows that the average daily consumption scale of the Spring Festival holiday increased by 36% year-on-year, an increase of more than 155 compared with 2019, and the consumption scale of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Zhejiang, Shandong and other provinces ranks among the top in the country.

There are more and more groups of "tourism for the New Year", and the number of tourists and tourism revenue in many places during the Spring Festival this year has increased significantly compared with the same period in 2023 and 2019. For example, four days before the Spring Festival holiday, the number of tourists received by 5A-level scenic spots and key 4A-level scenic spots in Jiangxi Province increased compared with the same period in 2019 and 2023, respectively. 3%；On the 7th day of the Spring Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists received in Inner Mongolia was 473 times, 449 times, tourism revenue in 2023, 2019 in the same period of 616 times, 562 times; Five days before the Spring Festival holiday, Jiangsu will focus on monitoring scenic spots, and the number of tourists and total consumption will more than double compared with the same period in 2023; Five days before the Spring Festival holiday, Shandong Province focused on monitoring scenic spots, receiving tourists and operating income increased respectively compared with the same period in 2023. 8%；Six days before the Spring Festival holiday, the number of tourists received by A-level tourist attractions in Hubei increased year-on-year compared with 2023 and 2019 respectively. 23%；In the first six days of the Spring Festival holiday, the number of tourists received in Henan province increased compared with the same period in 2023 and 2019, respectively. 2%；Tourism revenue increased compared to the same period in 2023 and 2019, respectively. 8%。

Movie box office revenue hit a new high, ticket prices fell slightly, and the box office contribution of third- and fourth-tier cities increased. According to the statistics of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 18 o'clock on February 17, the box office of the 2024 Spring Festival movies will reach 800.4 billion, more than the 2021 Spring Festival stalls (78..)4.3 billion yuan), breaking the box office record of the Spring Festival stalls in Chinese film history. Among them, the total number of moviegoers reached 16.1 billion, exceeding the 2021 Spring Festival stall by 16 billion moviegoers; Movie ticket prices have been slightly reduced, and the average ticket price of this year's Spring Festival movies is 4970 yuan, which is lower than the average ticket price of 52 for the Spring Festival stalls in 2022 and 202377 yuan, 5230 yuan. At the same time, the sinking trend of the Spring Festival film market is obvious, and the box office share of third- and fourth-tier cities has reached 536%, significantly higher than 50 in the same period last year1%；Box office revenue in third- and fourth-tier cities increased year-on-year respectively. 5%, and the box office revenue in second-tier cities increased slightly by 27%, while box office revenue in first-tier cities declined, down 94%。

Consumption of goods also performed better. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, during the New Year Festival from January 18 to February 6, online retail sales were close to 800 billion yuan, an increase of 8 percent over the same period last year9%。On February 17, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce released data showing that during the Spring Festival, key monitoring department stores, supermarkets, specialty stores, catering and e-commerce and other business enterprises achieved sales of 77400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 368%, an increase of 641%。

Chain**. Since February 2024 (as of February 16, the same below), WTI *** month-on-month **242% and the latest monthly average price is 75$65 barrel; Brent *** month on month ** 195% and the latest monthly average price is 80$70 barrel.

Copper prices are month-on-month**, and inventories are year-on-year**. Since February 2024 (as of February 16), copper prices have been **123%, a decline of 064 percentage points. Copper inventories (as of Feb. 16) were **107 year-on-year77%, an increase of 15 compared with the previous month81 percentage points.

The cement ** index narrowed its month-on-month decline. Since February 2024 (as of February 9, the same below), the national cement ** index has been **2 month-on-month08%, the decline narrowed by 0 from the previous month28 percentage points. The ** indices of North China, Northeast China, East China, Central South, Northwest and Southwest China were 0% and -2 respectively month-on-month1%、-1.81%、-1.87%、-0.96% and -491%。

The month-on-month decline in rebar narrowed, and inventories fell year-on-year. Since February 2024 (as of February 8, the same below), the month-on-month decline in rebar** has increased from 056% narrowed to 038%。Rebar inventories fell by 34 percent year-on-year10%, a decrease of 18 compared with the previous month81 percentage points.

The year-on-year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing expanded. Since February 2024 (as of February 17, the same below), affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival, the transaction area of commercial housing has increased by **73 year-on-year37%, a decline of 68 from the previous month67 percentage points. Among them, the transaction area of commercial housing in first-, second-, and third-tier cities was -77 year-on-year95%、-72.33% and -7159%, compared with the previous month, the change range was -7176、-70.20 and -6232 percentage points.

Pig prices, vegetable prices, and fruits**month-on-month**. Since February 2024 (as of February 9, the same below), pork** has turned positive month-on-month, compared with 11 months ago72% to 2245 yuan kg; Vegetables ** month on month ** 1588% to 602 yuan kg, an increase of 11 percentage points compared with the previous month; Fruit ** Ring Ratio ** 322% to 740 yuan kg, an increase of 2 compared with the previous month52 percentage points.

Money market interest rates mostly fell, and bond market interest rates mostly fell. Since February 2024 (as of February 9, the same below), R001 has fallen by 16bp from the end of the previous month to 185%, R007 down 45bp from the end of the previous month to 185%, DR001 rose 15BP from the end of the previous month to 185%, DR007 fell 2bp from the end of the previous month to 185%；The interest rate on one-year Treasury bonds rose 3bp from the end of the previous month to 192%, and the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds was unchanged at 2 from the end of last month43%, the interest rate of one-year AAA+ corporate bonds fell by 5bp from the end of last month to 241%, the interest rate of 10-year AAA+ corporate bonds fell 7bp from the end of last month to 272%。

3. Global Observation

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply. As of Feb. 16, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 430%, up 13bp from the end of last week (February 9); Inflation expectations implied by the 10-year Treasury note rose 8bp from the end of last week. As of Feb. 16, the French 10-year yield was down 1bp from the end of last week to 2At 88%, the German 10-year government bond yield rose 3bp from the end of last week to 240%；As of 14 February, UK 10-year yields were down 3bp from the end of last week to 413%；As of Feb. 15, Japan's 10-year government bond yield was up 1bp from the end of last week to 074%。

U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury maturity spreads widened. As of Feb. 16, the U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury maturity spreads were -034%, an increase of 3bp from the end of last week. As of Feb. 15, U.S. AAA-rated corporate option adjusted spreads fell 1bp from the end of last week to 037%, the adjusted spread of U.S. high-yield bond options rose 2bp from the end of last week to 335%。

Japan, Europe, ***, US stocks**. From February 12th to February 16th, in the United States, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average were respectively11%。In Europe, Italy's FTSE MIB, Britain's FTSE 100, France's CAC40 and Germany's DAX are respectively13%。In Asia**, the Nikkei 225, the Hang Seng Index, and the Korea Composite Index are respectively**09%。

Commodities **most**. During the period from February 12th to February 16th, in terms of industrial products, LME zinc, LME copper, DCE coke, DCE coking coal, DCE iron ore, and SHFE rebar were **13%。In terms of agricultural products, CBOT wheat, CBOT corn, and CBOT soybeans are **84%。*In terms of nymex gasoline and ice cloth oil, respectively**69%。*Aspect, comex***390%、comex***0.65%。

It remains to be seen when the Fed will cut interest rates. On February 12, Fed Governor Bowman said that the Fed still faces many risks in the fight against inflation, and that it is too early for the Fed to cut interest rates when and how much, and does not believe that it is appropriate to cut rates "in the near future", and that the current federal policy rate is in an "appropriate position". On 14 February, Fed Governor Barr said that the Fed's balance sheet reduction is running smoothly and that the FOMC needs to see more good inflation data before cutting interest rates, and CPI data suggests that the US may have a bumpy road to its 2% inflation target. On 14 February, Fed's Goolsbee said that inflation could be a little higher, but still likely to reach 2%; It does not support waiting for inflation to reach 2% before cutting interest rates; The Fed's inflation target is based on the PCE, not the CPI. On Feb. 16, Fed's Bostic said that given the current economic situation, the Fed does not need to rush to cut interest rates; The strong economy supports the Fed's prudent adjustment of monetary policy and will continue to work to bring inflation down to 2%; The Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2024. On Feb. 16, Fed's Daly said three rate cuts were a reasonable benchmark for this year; The neutral rate is now estimated at 0Between 5% and 1%, the nominal interest rate is 2Between 5% and 3%.

The European Central Bank signaled an interest rate cut. On February 13, ECB Chief Economist Lien said that Europe is moving in the right direction in reducing inflation, and the trend is good; The next step is to cut interest rates, but the timing depends on the data; There are risks associated with cutting rates too early or too late. On 14 February, ECB Governing Council member Nagel said that history has shown that easing monetary policy too early is worse than easing monetary policy too late. He said that from past experience, it is usually more painful to lower interest rates too early, and then it may enter another phase of *** and then have to take countermeasures. From an economic point of view, this means that it will eventually. He therefore urged them to be patient in assessing the situation. On 15 February, ECB President Christine Lagarde said recent data continued to show that weak economic activity is widespread across all sectors, from construction and manufacturing to services. The ECB will continue to take a data-driven approach, and more data is needed to show that inflation will reach 2%.

The Bank of England maintained its monetary tightening stance. On 14 February, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said that inflation is expected to fall to target in the spring; The question now is how long the policy will remain restrictive; The inflation situation in the spring will not determine the monetary policy stance; Inflation must be sustained to return to 2%.

The Bank of Japan may exit negative interest rates. On February 16, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Bank of Japan will carefully study various data and information in the hope of confirming whether there is a virtuous cycle of wage and price strengthening. The Bank of Japan is on track to end negative interest rates in the coming months, sources said.

On February 12, Yemen's Houthi rebels fired missiles at the U.S. ship Star Iris in the Red Sea. The Houthis said they would continue the military operation until Israel halted its military operations in the Gaza Strip and lifted the blockade.

The U.S. budget deficit widened in the four months to January as debt servicing costs climbed further. The deficit in the first four months of fiscal 2024 reached $532 billion, 16% higher than the same period last year, according to data released by the U.S. Treasury Department on February 12. Interest costs for the period were $357 billion, up 37% from 2023. The Fed's aggressive interest rate hikes have led to an increase in the cost of debt, increasing the burden on the US budget.

The U.S. Supreme Court intervened in Trump's Federal** case. On February 13, the U.S. Supreme Court ordered Justice Department Special Counsel Jack Smith to respond to an appeal from former Republican Donald Trump about his immunity by February 20. Trump filed an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court on Feb. 12 to freeze the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia's U.S. Circuit ruling denying his immunity. On February 8, former Trump won the Nevada Republican caucus election. Previously, Trump had won Republican primaries in Iowa, New Hampshire and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Fourth, next week's economic calendar

5. Risk Warning

Geopolitical risks are volatile, the U.S. economy has fallen more than expected, and the domestic economy has not recovered as expected.