This round should be a social reshuffle, Jingdong Xu Lei said that this is the end of one era and the beginning of another era, which is meaningful.
* According to the bear market model, burst leveraged funds, burst financing, and then burst equity pledges, the scale of equity pledges is almost 2 to 3 trillion, from the current situation of IPOs, the upper level believes that there is still no risk at present, or to continue financing, on the other hand, since the 78 years of the Third Plenary Session of the current time is undecided, this is the first time in half a century, that is to say, for the later economic development, there is no unified opinion.
* It has created the most tragic fall in 30 years, the index is still supported by the weight of Moutai and has not fallen much, 08 years of stock market crash, 16 years of circuit breaker, 18 years of stock market crash, including P2P have proved that ** will not affect social stability, so this round of IPO has not stopped, and the provinces are still releasing 24-year IPO plans.
And the price of housing may really start this year, before the use of administrative means to slow down the speed of housing prices, now the administrative loosening of housing prices gradually return to the market supply and demand relationship, this is fundamental, the volume and 90% of the account funds in the amount of 100,000 yuan below is destined to be different degrees of importance.
The current state of fundamentals is worse than in '08 and '15 and '18.
Corresponding to the deductive state of this round of bear market, if it returns to the fundamentals, it symbolizes an overall reshuffle.
The chip structure of AI, after several rounds of rescue of long funds, has now been destroyed.
The only one in the market that is logically hard enough.
On a macro level, it is not right for the mainstream to benchmark the United States and Japan in 1929 in the 90s.
The prosperity of the Americans was to determine financial hegemony after winning the First World War, and the financial center shifted from London to Wall Street, so the financial crisis of 1929 could trigger World War II.
Japan's prosperity was built on the basis of the Cold War, becoming the vanguard of the US military, making a lot of war profits, and later making foreign exchange with excellent industrial products.
Our current situation is that after 08 years, the unilateral real estate financialization of the national leverage, which is the global capital market is at a new high, and the reason for the new low of A-shares, we lack a broad overseas market, the domestic industrial chain is complete but the degree of substitution is high.
If you want to compare, it should be the Soviet Union that relied on administrative orders to complete the first five-year plan during the Stalin period.
So this round of interpretation actually has no historical benchmark, and we are experiencing this era.
Only in the past can a new historical potential energy arise.
Personal opinion, for reference only, investment is risky, you need to be cautious when entering the market!