We try to look at the issue from a different perspective:
1) Development stage and demographic structure.
General industrialization and the development of modern medicine will lead to the increase of life expectancy, human beings in the pre-industrialization of the flat life span is about 35 years old, after industrialization, the life expectancy has increased significantly, China has benefited from the process of modernization, the per capita quality of life has been greatly improved, all kinds of diseases did not know what diseases died early, to now more and more diseases for more advanced medical conditions and be detected and intervened, China's average life expectancy has exceeded 78 years old, and the average life expectancy of Shanghai with better medical resources even exceeds that of Japan.
From the perspective of urban and rural structure, there are still differences, the elderly in rural areas have not retired at all, I am returning to my hometown every year, seeing changes every year, and now everyone can still enjoy relatively low basic living materials ** and labor services ** In addition to the development of science and technology, to a large extent, it is related to the older generation of laborers, and many basic agricultural production that requires manpower depends on the older generation of laborers, but we should also realize that the average life expectancy in rural areas is only about 72, which is more than six years less than the average life expectancy in cities. From the perspective of urban and rural population structure, the so-called delayed retirement refers more to people engaged in urban labor.
Judging from the increase in life expectancy in the development stage and the population structure of urban and rural areas, in fact, delayed retirement is in usWide at the top and narrow at the bottomAfter all, if you always stand on the moral high ground, many problems have not been solved, and now young people can not make up, the support ratio is more severe, and the pension replacement rate is lower than the international warning line of 10%, and it is gradually declining, the tax source is so much, either cut down, or cut up, this is a very real problem.
2) The characteristics of personal pensions inevitably lead to a low participation rate.
Experts only see the surface, and at the same time think that the development of personal pensions is not good and related, but in fact, the tax incentives of personal pensions + market-oriented operation characteristics, the potential group isTens of millionsYou can roughly calculate the maximum potential of the market by looking at the proportion of individual income tax rate of more than 10% after the special additional deduction.
And there is a closer to retirement, the more favorable the situation, the design of this tax preference is very strange, that is, a pension product tailored to the near-retirement and high-income groups, the short closed period means that the actual rate of return of the average tax preferential transformation is high, and the shorter the closed period means less uncertain policy factors, such as delayed retirement, for example, assuming that there are 5 years of retirement for high-income groups, the tax rate is 20% In turn, the group that has just joined the work may have 40 years to retire, during which inflation, policy changes, delayed retirement, income fluctuations, etc. are not cost-effective at all, which makes the proportion of people with a tax rate of more than 10% is not high, and it is necessary to cut another knife in the demographic structure, and the potential group is expected to be 20 million It is very good. Although the financial markets are bad, this is definitely not the main reason for the low attractiveness of personal pensions.
3) Dualistic structure guarantee.
The current pension replacement rate is about 45%, but according to the data of financial subsidies and distribution, most of them are actually supporting a small number of people in the system, which leads to the welfare of some people to exceed the international warning line of 55%, or even much higher than this ratio, and the rural elderly with a larger base take less money, 100 yuan is only a single-digit pension replacement rate, what protection can be said. Of course, many people like to use the proportion of payment to talk about things, so it is necessary to break the casserole and ask in the end, whether fiscal expenditure and subsidies are the tax of the public, whether the welfare in the system depends on the tax of the public, and whether the income and distribution of state-owned assets are owned by the collectiveWhy do we have to have such a very different binary structure?
So there are two fundamental problems with the current pension problem, one is the distortion of the demographic structure, the other is the difference between inside and outside the system, delaying retirement can, but it will definitely not solve the difference between the current pension replacement rate of the minority and the majority of the people, breaking the binary structure, adding a fairer pension security is more efficient, what is fairness: 10,000 and 100 are up 5% is fair?This is not called fairness, so to deal with the aging problem of the basic security has been established behind the speed of high economic growth, if you still do not do a good distribution, the future problem will only become more and more difficult, ** is to do dividends, can you ensure that the pension pool of money is more fairly distributed?If you can really achieve a fairer pension replacement rate of 45%, and more than 1,000 yuan per person per month can also greatly alleviate the pressure on the elderly, the first pillar is not fair and secure, and you expect a more market-oriented second and third pillar to solve the pension problem is tantamount to a dream. Experts recommend adjusting the retirement age