On January 9, Zhejiang Province issued a notice (at the end of the attached text) to solicit opinions on the "Notice on Matters Related to the Adjustment of the Industrial and Commercial Peak and Valley Time-of-Use Electricity Price Policy (Draft for Comments)". Among them, it is proposed to unify the peak and valley hours of large industrial electricity price users and general industrial and commercial electricity price users.
A few years ago, there was a fierce discussion in the industry about the direction of the industrial and commercial time-of-use electricity price policy in 2024, with some news saying that it would change, and some news saying that it would not change. On the evening of December 28, State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power issued the "Announcement on the Purchase of Industrial and Commercial Electricity in January 2024", most of the industry is applauding, and the signal from the relevant ** is that the relevant time-of-use electricity price policy has not been adjusted, but there are changes in the electricity price within the rules.
At this point, colleagues in the industry thought that the policy had settled. However, with the release of the draft for comments, the original big move is still to come
The most important message in the policy is:Peak-to-valley time divisionandThe corresponding electricity price floating ratio!
The division of the old and new versions of the time period has been sorted out and colored, and it can be seen intuitively: from the time division, the spring and autumn of large industries are less than the peak hours defined by 4 hours, and the time at night has also changed from peak electricity prices to parity; In winter and summer, 1 to 3 p.m. is two hours less than the definition of peak hours.
From the perspective of general industry and commerce, there are no peaks and peaks in the evening of spring and autumn, and they turn into flat sections; In the winter and summer, the peak hours of the morning are increased by two hours, and the peak of two hours from 1 to 3 o'clock becomes flat, and the peak of two hours from 3 to 5 o'clock turns to a peak, and there is no peak in the evening.
But it's not that simple, let's take a look at the change in the floating ratio of electricity prices!
In addition, according to the notice of the Provincial Development and Reform Commission on the notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on the transmission and distribution prices of provincial power grids and related matters in the third regulatory cycle, that is, the latest data on the industrial and commercial electricity prices of Zhejiang Province implemented in October 2023 (as shown in the table below).
First of all, there is a deep valley electricity price, which only governs major holidays such as Labor Day, National Day, and Spring Festival, and will be set at 10:00-14:00, this policy is actually not the first in Zhejiang, and Jiangsu has tried to implement it in 2023 and has achieved certain results. However, this is a relatively special case and does not go deep**.
From the point of view of the peak**, the proportion of large industry is increasing, and the general industry and commerce are decreasing;
At the peak, both large industry and general industry and commerce increased by nearly 30%;
From the trough**, large industry and general industry and commerce have declined.
When we combine the two, we get a table like this:
As a person in the photovoltaic energy storage industry, I am mainly concerned about the change of electricity price from 8:00 to 17:00 during the day. It should be noted that the data in this table is calculated proportionally based on the flat price of 1, and the actual electricity price in the flat section is close to 7 cents above 6 cents and will fluctuate every month.
In fact, the power distribution of each enterprise in different time periods is inconsistent, so it is impossible to clarify the respective weights. The electricity price can only be averaged for each hour.
The new policy of large industry in the spring and autumn has risen, although the "definition" of the peak cancellation has not reduced the price of electricity, winter and summer have been significantly reduced, but considering that all employees of the enterprise have to arrange meals at noon, the relative weight must be lower than other time periods, so theoretically the average point of the new policy will rise some, increase the number of departments more, and reduce the part of the reduction less.
For general industry and commerce, the difference is actually more obvious, the new policy in spring and autumn will be increased by more than two cents, and in winter and summer, it will be increased by one cent and six, or based on the principle just now, the increase is actually higher than shown.
Therefore, for general industrial and commercial users, without considering the decline in the overall construction cost, based on the change in electricity price, the income brought by the construction of distributed photovoltaic power stations has increased by 15%-20% due to the new policy, and the reduction of the construction cost of the entire market has increased by leaps and bounds.
Relatively speaking, industry and commerce are the main part of the society, so the new policy can further release market space for Zhejiang Province.
Of course, for energy storage, because the main income** is based on peak-to-valley price spread arbitrage, the focus is more on its price difference. Again, based on this table.
Under the new policy, Zhejiang Province can still meet the operation mode of two charging and discharging. As above, the sum of the daily spread is still converted in proportion to the flat segment**.
Under the new policy, the single-day spread of large industries decreases in spring and autumn, and rises in winter and summer, and has little impact on the single-day spread under annual weighting, which is weighted based on the number of months being 8 and 4 respectively.
Generally, the single-day spread of industry and commerce has increased significantly in spring, autumn, winter and summer, and it is more clear after annual weighting, with an increase of 60%. Arbitrage into the current electricity price to 07 yuan kWh calculation, a single day income of one kilowatt-hour of electric energy storage from 0966 yuan rose to 154 yuan.
Therefore, for energy storage, the rate of return on investment and construction of general industrial and commercial enterprises has risen relatively sharply, and the new policy will greatly promote the construction of industrial and commercial energy storage, and I believe that the energy storage power station market will have outstanding results in 2024.
Generally speaking, the electricity cost of large industrial enterprises has decreased slightly, but based on the scale of their electricity consumption itself, the benefits of adopting new energy must be very huge, and for energy storage, the income of large industrial enterprises is better than that of general industrial and commercial enterprises.
For general industry and commerce, in the context of rising electricity costs, the income from photovoltaic and energy storage investment is rising sharply, and the investment conditions are unprecedentedly good, and 2024 is a good year for the market.
Another interesting point is that on December 19, 2023, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Provincial Market Supervision Bureau issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Regulating the Electricity Consumption of Electric Vehicle Charging and Swapping Facilities", which mentions that the electricity price of operating charging stations in residential households and places outside the community shall implement the two-part electricity price of industry and commerce, and implement the peak and valley time-of-use electricity price. This is shown in the figure below:
The time-sharing system of this policy is not the same as the time-sharing policy that "will be implemented" or the time-sharing policy that is currently being implemented, and there is a separate time-sharing policy.
Article**: Individual submission, part of the content cites the relevant policy document notice.