The CSTO summit, known as "Little Warsaw", was held in Yerevan, Armenia, on November 23.
Ten days ago, Putin did not attend the G20 meeting, but this time, he came. Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan received him on the plane, and Putin sent him to a bulletproof car "Aurus" and drove towards the conference center.
The CSTO, also known as the Joint Security Convention, is a regional military and security alliance established under the leadership of Russia after the collapse of the former Soviet Union. The organization has Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and other countries.
This time, the heads of six countries came, and in addition to the change of leaders and other issues of arrangement, there were three important security issues: first, the mediation of the Armenian-Arab conflict; second, the concern about the situation in Central Asia; Third, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the new security risks posed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). It is clear that the first issue to be resolved is the host country, Armenia, and Pashinyan hopes that this group will come forward and solve Azerbaijan; The three Central Asian countries are most worried about the security crisis in Afghanistan, and the Russian-Belarusian crisis lies in the stalemate between Russia and Ukraine, and the military strength of Russia and Belarus on the Western Front is constantly increasing, which poses a serious threat to Russia and Belarus.
Just like "Swans, Prawns and Barracudas" written by the Russian writer Krylov, the swans, prawns, and barracuda all pulled desperately in both directions, but the carriage did not move. The main demands of the CSTO countries are divided, and this is the most pressing issue at the summit.
1. Reasons why the three issues have not been able to achieve practical results.
At a small meeting of the heads of state of the CIS, Pashinyan showed obvious dissatisfaction with the CSC:
Armenia's two-year presidency of the Union of CIS countries ended on this day, but we did not feel the slightest sense of joy. Armenia is part of the CSTO, and Azerbaijan has attacked the country three times in the past two years. So far, however, there has been no agreed response in Ji'an. ”
After the meeting, Pashinyan refused to sign the CSTO Security Council Statement, openly expressing his opposition to the CSTO's "inaction" in the Asian-Afghan region. Therefore, many have interpreted it as a gesture of Armenia ready to "withdraw from the group". Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov hurriedly stepped forward to round the course for Pashinian: This summit is very complicated, and the leaders of various countries are very frank, which can only show that the CSTO is still alive, and Armenia will definitely continue to stay in this organization.
Peskov's statements do not hide the cruel fact that Russia does not have enough control, and there are more and more centrifugal tendencies in the CSTO. In fact, in the war in Ukraine, Russia has no time to take care of its brothers around it.
In 2020, there was a large-scale war between the two countries, and with the help of Russia, the two countries signed an armistice agreement. When Kazakhstan broke out at the beginning of this year, Russia, under the leadership of the CSTO, resolutely sent troops to help the Kazakh region regain normalcy. However, when the Russian-Ukrainian war started on February 24, the world's second most powerful people, because they could not defeat Zelensky, were seized by NATO and began the "northern expansion", which made the allies who were once dependent on Russia feel deep fear.
Speaking at the summit, Belarusian Alexander Lukashenko said: "The future of the CSTO depends on the war in Ukraine. "If Russia wins, then the CSC will continue forever. Without victory, there would be no Ji'an. Once Russia collapses, we will all be buried in this rubble. ”
Lukashenko's remarks are actually a warning to the heads of state attending the meeting that at a critical juncture, the CSTO must unite with Russia and do its best to help Russia, other CSTO members and Russia are grasshoppers in the same boat, once Russia fails, Russia will collapse like the Soviet Union, the CSTO will disappear, and they will not give you any protection.
Lao Lu's words are also one of the reasons why Russia cannot go to war with Ukraine. In the case that the war situation is not yet clear, there are already clues of "rebellion and separation". Once defeated, not only will Russia have no place on the Eurasian continent, but even itself may fall into **.