Today, the global automotive industry has shifted from the fuel era to the electric intelligence era. As a pillar industry of the national economy, the automobile industry is an important support for China to accelerate new industrialization and achieve high-quality economic development. As one of the industries that can best represent China, the automobile industry has a high degree of marketization, close global connections, and huge opportunities, and it is also an industry 40 main battleground.
At present, the automotive industry is in a period of deep transformation, and the rapid evolution of new energy and intelligent networking has promoted the upgrading of the global automotive industry. New energy vehicles will enter a state of more fierce competition and more obvious survival of the fittest.
|Industry background
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, and is expected to exceed 40% in 24 years
In November 2023, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 40% for the first time, and the penetration rate is expected to exceed 40% in 2024. In 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in rural areas will only be about 4%, and if there is strong policy support, it is expected that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will be more than 60% in 3-5 years.
From January to October, the domestic passenger car PHEV sales were 1.77 million units, accounting for a year-on-year increase of 916%, far more than BEV24The year-on-year growth rate of 4% is expected to account for half of the new energy.
Rally: the policy is inclined to the rural market (cars go to the countryside); The competition of car companies and technological upgrading have promoted the increase in product cost performance, and "oil and electricity are at the same price". Thrust: BYD, Huawei, Ideal and other 24 years to launch a large number of new models; Infrastructure such as charging piles has been gradually improved.
Independent brands occupy a strong position, and localization has become an important driving force
In 2023, the market share of domestic brand passenger cars will exceed 50% for the first time, reaching 52%, an increase of 4% from 20226%。Among them, in December 2023, the market share of wholesale sales of self-owned brand passenger cars reached 582%, just one step away from 60%. Similar to Japan, the forward market share of domestic brands can reach about 80%.
South Korea and France have basically withdrawn from the market, and the share of Japan and the United States has been seriously squeezed. The German market share is relatively strong, mainly supported by luxury brands. With the continuous advancement of the high-end of independent brands, especially new forces such as Huawei, Xiaomi, Ideal, etc., the high-end of independent brands is expected to increase rapidly.
The export volume surpassed Japan for the first time to become the world's first, and the automobile industry chain went overseas to become a new growth point
From January to October 2023, the export sales volume was 39220,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 597%, the annual export sales are expected to be 4.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 528%。Fuel vehicles are still the main force of exports, accounting for 75%. New energy exports grew rapidly, with annual exports of 11910,000 units, up 76% year-on-year.
Strong product strength: The huge disparity between the product strength of independent brands and foreign capital is essentially the different stages (the domestic volume share is cleared, while the overseas supply and demand pattern is stable).
Southeast Asia and other non-** restricted countries have laid the foundation: product strength + overseas production capacity release to promote the rapid increase in export ends. Car companies have comprehensively accelerated the deployment of overseas production capacity and entered the stage of "global car manufacturing and global sales". Taking BYD as an example, the company's overseas production capacity release has accelerated since 24 years.
The automobile industry has officially entered the knockout round, and the industrial pattern has been initially clear
In 2020, the market share of the top 10 NEV brands was 68%, and it will rise to 78% from January to October 2023.
Consumer: New energy vehicles will become the mainstream, the audience will completely change from the people who seek innovation and difference to the public, and customers will gather to the head brands, and the Matthew effect is obvious.
Supply side: The involution of car manufacturing is serious, the first war is fighting, and many new forces in the hematopoietic sector continue to suffer huge losses due to the lack of scale advantages.
BYD, Tesla, and Huawei have basically locked in three final positions, confirming the importance of ecological construction in the competition of car companies. The path of industrial clearance is the bankruptcy of new forces, the decline in the volume of joint venture car companies, and the wave of mergers and acquisitions.
Electrification in the first half
In the first half, electrification was basically completed, and in the short term, iterative innovation based on the existing pattern was carried out, and cost reduction was the main path
With the gradual increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, China has basically successfully achieved corner overtaking in the first half of the electrification of new energy vehicles, and the industry attributes have gradually weakened. A large number of leading companies in the industry have achieved IPOs, the investment risk in the primary market is gradually increasing, and the few remaining tracks and head targets are also facing unprofitable or upside down.
The third generation of semiconductors reshapes automotive power devices, and there are opportunities for innovation in electric drive and electronic control
Power semiconductors are the core of power conversion and circuit control in electronic devices, and the current power semiconductors of new energy vehicles are still mainly silicon-based IGBTs and MOSFETs, and the loss of vehicles equipped with SiC will be reduced by 80%, and the charging speed can be increased by 2 times. The main application scenarios of silicon carbide in new energy vehicles are inverters, on-board chargers and DC DC converters, off-board charging piles and other core electronic control fields.
The 800V platform architecture has become an important solution for high-voltage fast charging and has become the flagship standard configuration of mainstream car companies. In order to achieve "5 minutes of charging and 200km of battery life", high-voltage fast charging must be used, and the original silicon-based IGBT chip has reached the material limit, which can only be supported by SiC.
BYD is looking forward to launching a disruptive four-wheel drive solution. There are two types of electric drives for electric vehicles: centralized and distributed. Centralized means that one motor controls the left and right two wheels or even four wheels, and the distributed motor is four wheels each equipped with a motor for drive, and each wheel can be driven and controlled separately. The advantages of distributed drive are short transmission distance, high efficiency, relatively compact structure, and the control of a variety of vehicle dynamics.
The "dual carbon" goal and electrification drive the lightweight of vehicles
Automobile lightweight is the most direct solution for energy conservation and emission reduction, and it is also one of the effective means to increase the range of electric vehicles.
Structural lightweight: On the basis of the original design, the CAE software is used to analyze the bearing state and process characteristics of the object and further optimize the original structure, and the commonly used structural optimization methods are topology optimization, size optimization, shape optimization and topography optimization.
Material lightweight: In all kinds of lightweight materials, the cost of aluminum alloy is only higher than that of high-strength steel, but far lower than magnesium alloy, plastic and carbon fiber.
Process lightweight: The integrated die-casting body is an upgrade of lightweight technology, which can reduce the number of body parts, simplify the first-class chain links, and improve the utilization rate of raw materials, thereby greatly improving the efficiency of automobile assembly. After Tesla, Xiaopeng, Xiaomi, and Wenjie have also launched integrated die-casting.
Domestic brands overtake in corners, and domestic parts usher in incremental opportunities
Traditional overseas parts giants have achieved their rise by supporting foreign-funded mainstream car companies, and independent parts manufacturers in the era of smart electric vehicles are expected to achieve domestic substitution through the rise of their own brands. In the era of traditional automobiles, Europe has achieved Bosch and Continental, while Japan has driven the rapid development of Japanese parts giants such as Denso, and the development of leading fuel car companies is closely related to the development of parts tier1.
From the perspective of the globalization path of German and Japanese parts manufacturers, the rise of parts suppliers is often accompanied by the achievement of the following two conditions:
1) Local *** technology is competitive in the world.
2) Local leading car companies emerged and took the lead in rising, and sought new overseas incremental markets. At present, China's automobile market has initially reached these two prerequisites.
Jingtai investment advice
[Industry characteristics].
The total volume of automobile sales has stabilized, but the sales structure has changed dramatically.
1) In November 2023, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 40% for the first time in a single month. Within 3-5 years, it is a high probability event for new energy vehicles to become dominant.
2) In 2023, the market share of domestic brands will exceed 50% for the first time. The share of domestic brands is expected to further increase to 70%-80%, driving the localization of parts.
3) In 2023, China's auto exports will be the first in the world for the first time. Going overseas has become a new increment for the future automobile industry.
From the perspective of the competitive landscape, the industry will accelerate its liquidation, and bankruptcy, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring will become the norm in 2024.
1) Involution upgrade: Different from the previous price reduction caused by inventory clearance, independent vs joint venture competition and electric vs fuel competition intensified.
2) Accelerate clearance: In 2018, only about 50 of the 487 electric vehicle companies remained, and the tail enterprises are in difficulty, and more than 100 loss-making car companies will be in 2023.
[Investment logic].
Whether it is electrification or intelligence, the main track is already very crowded, and the competition pattern is basically determined or the entry threshold is extremely high. Based on the industrial characteristics of the strong rise of domestic brands under electrification, and the huge increment brought about by the development trend of intelligence, the upstream parts of the automobile industry have three logics: the logic of market growth, the logic of penetration rate improvement and the increase of localization rate. Its first-class sea increment is basically applicable to all parts, and some subdivided tracks are suitable for low penetration rate or low localization rate logic.
1) Investment in the upstream: The whole vehicle and even Tier 1 are mainly the competition between giants and listed companies, and the Tier 2 and even Tier 3 subdivisions focus on mining opportunities. Under the huge market size base, a large number of Tier 3 subdivision tracks also have sufficient ceilings.
2) Low penetration rate and low localization rate: mainly focus on new parts brought by electrification and intelligence, such as lightweight materials, air suspension, etc.; As well as intelligent chassis and automotive semiconductors, which are traditionally advantageous overseas, in addition to hard technology attributes, areas with a high proportion of labor and manufacturing costs that are strong in China are also worth paying attention to.
3) Invest in leading and strong binding projects: The automobile industry has entered the knockout competition, and the leading binding ensures the stability of performance, Huawei industrial chain BYD industrial chain.