It's the peak period of job hunting during the Spring Festival againMany early financially free real estate executives enjoyed life, chattering from time to time during the Spring Festival, mostly reminiscing about the 10 years of this real estate, lamenting that time flies really fast.
From time to time, I also think of the peaceful and prosperous era of 2015-2020Whether it is for real estate people or any practitioner in the real estate circle, it is an era worth nostalgic for, but unfortunately it's really gone.
Whether you admit it or not, the underlying logic of real estate has changed, and more than ten years of ** era has become a thing of the past** Or the era of "copper and iron" has long begun, but some people are "obsessed with the authorities"., still blindfolded by inertia.
The epidemic has made the property market worse, but in fact, without the epidemic, the survival foundation of the property market has also been loosened. The fatal blow was that the financial properties of the house were withdrawn.
Recently, the policy has once again ushered in a favorable situation, and on February 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce the new loan market ** interest rate (LPR)., 1-year LPR is 345%, the same as the previous period; LPR for more than 5 years is 395%, down 25 basis points from the previous period
This adjustment has also ushered in historic discounts for many buyers who have improved their needs, taking Beijing as an example, if the interest rate of personal housing loans is 42%, and after this 25 basis point cut, the mortgage rate will become 395%。Take a commercial loan of 1 million yuan with equal principal and interest repayment for 30 years as an example, you can save about 144 in a month8 yuan, a year saving about 1737$6.
From the return of financial attributes to residential attributes, the overall situation in recent years, the slogan is very loud, but from the perspective of the implementation port and the overall industrial upgrading, it cannot smoothly transition to a good direction.
The house returns to the residential property and is no longer a "hen that lays eggs".Mortgages are no longer about using other people's money to earn their own quick money. Who would want to work for a bank? The point is that housing prices are high, most people have a problem eating, and the "lining" is almost gone, even if the mother-in-law is unhappy, who cares about face?
It's hard to deny that real estate is still a pillar industry. But the profit model of this "pillar" has changed, and the logic of survival has changed。For most property markets, the "demographic dividend" is going away, the marginal utility of the "policy dividend" is fading, and the property market is coming out of the "outlet"!
Perhaps, everything is as simple as that: in the face of the arrival of a new era, if you don't get in, you're out! Now that the industry has divided the world, many real estate people do not seem to have come to their senses, still living in the early lively atmosphere and unable to get out.
In any case, the real estate industry still has an output value of 10 trillion yuan, which still has an overwhelming advantage over other industriesDespite any denial, the real estate industry is still one of the largest industries at present
In recent years, countless real estate people have left this industry, and many people continue to struggleIt has also been mentioned many times: choice is more important than effort, especially in today's environment.
The first camp: the camp of real estate state-owned enterprises with market-oriented and national layoutJudging from the organizational adjustment of the two leading central enterprises this yearAn obvious move, real estate companies are fleeing from third- and fourth-tier cities
Almost all central enterprises have withdrawn from third- and fourth-tier cities in a large area, and core investment has been completely concentrated in the core areas of 8-10 citiesIn terms of incremental development business, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises with market-oriented operations have completely occupied the market.
Therefore, from the perspective of the real estate development business sector, state-owned enterprises and central enterprises have an overwhelming advantage, and the improvement demand of domestic core cities in the future is still dominated by state-owned enterprises and central enterprises.
At present, the real estate people with good qualifications in the early days, especially many friends who have had good business in benchmark private enterprisesNowadays, many people are in a state of confusion because they don't seem to see a later career future
But the other part of the same qualifications of real estate people,In 2021, when the industry has just declined, it has taken the initiative to seek changes and actively approach market-oriented state-owned enterprises and central enterprisesAt least now that he has stood firm, he can still be at the table, and he still has the capital to pick opportunities in the future.
Nowadays, these two types of real estate people are in stark contrast。The former is still racking his brains to see opportunities, and it seems that the opportunities that can be given in the current market are already difficult.
The second camp: regional state-owned enterprises, regional urban investment, local infrastructure platforms, asset management companies, etc。This type now seems to be scattered, but in fact it is very concentrated, and it is also invisible to most real estate people.
Regional state-owned enterprises, urban investment and other platform companies have now undertaken the development of many local projectsWhether it is residential or urban renewal, or commercial and office stock transformation, many in the case of policy support, also need to have a team development and operation.
Therefore, this part of the work, which was disliked by many people in the early days, is now very fragrant。Local state-owned enterprises and urban investment platforms still need a large number of market-oriented managers to join, but they are ignored and disliked by many people.
Especially in the Greater Bay Area and East China, almost every prefecture-level city has a corresponding regional state-owned enterpriseMany of these enterprises have just been established, but there are a lot of land resources, and some thunderstorm real estate projects have also been transferred to their hands.
In addition, at present, many local state-owned enterprises and large investment groups have many asset management companies that are currently making moves in the real estate investment sectorEspecially after the recent news of the suspension of commercial development and construction in Shanghai, the real estate asset management business will immediately become active.
Compared with the first category, the second camp is more diversified in business, and there are more non-traditional residential developments, which also provides a place for many real estate developers in the field of non-residential development.
This kind of real estate enterprise is not the logic of traditional real estate developers, and it is possible to be competent only if the docking ability is stronger and the localized resources are more solid.
The third camp: the camp of private enterprises driven by product operation, there are not many such real estate companies now, either deeply cultivate high-energy cities and high-end, or deeply cultivate and take differentiated development routes, such as agent construction.
This camp is now more differentiated, because there are very few cities that can be deeply cultivated, and cities with incremental demand now have head-on competition from state-owned enterprises and central enterprisesTherefore, this part of the real estate companies really needs real work to survive.
The types of urban deep-rooted real estate enterprises are also gradually diversifiedSome rely on top-level products to break through to win spire customers, and some precipitate urban renewal to continue to incubate high-quality land, calmly face the downward trough, can be fast or slow combination of play.
Therefore, this kind of real estate enterprises are generally deeper, and each has some basic advantages of its own for many yearsIt is not so much that there was no high-profile national expansion in the early days, but that it has a clear positioningIdentifying advantages is the core of future development.
these yearsThere are Dahua, Wanhua, and Xinghe in the south, and TEDA + Xinsha in the northThese seem to be mediocre small and medium-sized real estate companies, but these have basically passed through the cycle and won the respect of the head real estate companies.
In the field of agent construction, there is a head Greentown management and hosting industry for a long time, but it is not completely without opportunities, for example, the essence of Binjiang's development is actually the core of agent constructionIn the future, real estate companies with product + operation capabilities are still worth exploring in the agent construction sector
The overall layout of the real estate company has been completed, and it is unlikely that there will be any changes in the futureThe situation of the strong will continue to intensify, so the opportunity to give all real estate people is also on the table.
It's still the same sentence,Friends who should listen to persuasion, know how to do it, let go of it, and be self-disciplined will have the opportunity for sustainable development in the future。If many people still can't recognize the situation clearly and still think about problems with self-centeredness, then the dilemma they will face in the future will also increase.