Two major U.S. parties recently approved a $60 billion bailout package for Ukraine.
Whether the bill can be passed or not actually depends on the game between the two parties in the United States, that is, a "duel" against Ukraine between the Senate dominated by the Democratic Party and the House of Representatives dominated by the United States and the House of Representatives dominated by the Republicans, and the outcome of this duel will have an important impact on the future of Russia and Ukraine.
The last bailout bill voted on in the Senate was actually proposed by Biden to Congress.
Under the "system of checks and balances" in the United States, an important matter must be jointly approved by the United States, the Senate, and the House of Representatives before a consensus can be reached. Either side can submit a bill, but it requires the unanimous approval of all three political parties and finally the signature. Therefore, either side can reject a proposal put forward by the other side or the other side, and the United States** can also refuse to sign any bill passed by the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The sword project The bill proposed by Biden to the parliament must be negotiated between the two houses and the two houses, reach a consensus, vote for it, and then hand it over to Biden for signature.
In addition, Biden** has submitted a $118 billion border security bill to the United States in September.
At that time, Biden's bill to the parliament included not only a bailout for Ukraine, but also a fiscal budget for 2024, as well as a temporary budget to ensure the normal functioning of the United States. The Biden administration realized that in a Republican-dominated parliament, the bill that would provide aid to Ukraine would not pass, so he succeeded in talking to McCarthy in the House of Representatives, who manipulated an emergency funding plan in the parliament aimed at ensuring the normal functioning of the United States, which caused the outrage of Republicans, and then there was news that he and Biden had reached an agreement to provide Ukraine with the next phase of the rescue plan. Thus, the Republicans in the US Congress ousted McCarthy from the post of Speaker of the House of Representatives. Johnson was then elected as the new chairman of the House of Representatives, a Republican.
Johnson is a staunch supporter of Trump and a steadfast refusal to provide sustained relief to Ukraine.
Therefore, Biden's $106 billion plan, as well as the 2024 budget, cannot pass Congress, let alone vote.
But another body of parliament, the senators, is dominated by overwhelmingly majority Democrats. As a result, in Biden's proposed spending plan of 106 billion, Congress passed a reorganization, increasing from 12 billion to 18 billion, resulting in a new bill. Moreover, Biden's aid plan worth up to 60 billion yuan has also been included in the "Border Security Bill".
Biden also invested heavily in providing $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, accounting for almost more than half of the total allocation, can this still be called the "Border Safeguard Law"? Ukraine and the United States are far apart, so what is the connection between the security of Ukraine and the security of the borders of the United States?
In fact, Biden forced the US Congress to come to the rescue of Ukraine out of "border security" by linking help to Ukraine with "border security".
If that's the case, maybe it can be passed by the Democratic-controlled Senate, but what about the Republican-controlled House? I don't think it's easy.
U.S. House Speaker Johnson said of the spending bill"It was worse than we expected"。He also specifically pointed out that once the bill reaches Congress, Congress will "die at the touch of a button."
This will lead to a heavy loss of Ukraine in the massive US assistance to it, or a complete loss.
In fact, this "duel" against Ukraine has become a "duel" between the Democratic and Republican parties. Clearly, the Democrats are more likely to win.
Without most or all of the help of the United States, Ukraine would have lost this war.
This is equivalent to a "two-party duel" of US aid to Ukraine, and has become the key to the "decisive victory" of Russia and Ukraine.
Even now, the European Union will provide Ukraine with another 50 billion euros, which will only be enough for Ukraine to achieve a final victory in the next four years, which is still far from it. Except for a few countries such as Germany, those who can rescue Ukraine can be counted in one slap.
How long can Ukraine, without funds, without arms, without supplies, hold out?
Perhaps in the spring of next year, Ukraine will admit that it has lost, and this Russian-Ukrainian war will be over.