On the morning of January 11, the main Shanghai nickel contract 2402 in the domestic ** market once led the rise. As of the afternoon**, it was up 315%, closed at 128,970 yuan. 
Since the continuous decline in September 2023, Shanghai nickel** has accumulated a decline of more than 50,000 yuan, and compared with the relative high of 234,870 yuan tons in January 2023, ** has been nearly halved.
In 2023, nickel prices will be obvious**, mainly due to the continuous operation of domestic refined nickel production lines, which has led to a structural surplus in the nickel industry to a comprehensive surplus, and the world has begun to show signs of accumulation, and the volatility of nickel prices has also begun to gradually weaken. Zhou Maochan, an analyst at Shanghai Ganglian, said that after the epic ** of the previous year, the nickel industry will turn to a comprehensive surplus in 2023, and nickel prices will fall from a high level to a rational one. In this year, the ** of various nickel varieties has increased unprecedentedly, and a large number of ferronickel in Indonesia has returned; Nickel intermediates and imports have doubled; Domestic refined nickel production lines have sprung up.
According to the statistics of Shanghai Ganglian, China's nickel pig iron production is expected to be 37 in 202350,000 tons, a decrease of 679%。Among them, medium and high nickel pig iron 30230,000 tons, a decrease of 849%；Low nickel pig iron 7270,000 tons, an increase of 097%。In 2023, Indonesia's total ferronickel output will be about 1.46 million tons of nickel metal, an increase of 23% year-on-year. Among them, about 1.42 million tons of medium and high nickel pig iron; Low nickel pig iron 1450,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 05%；FEN (nickel-iron alloy) about 230,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5%.
In 2023, China's total ferronickel imports will be about 8.45 million tons, an increase of 2.55 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 432%；Among them, the total amount of ferronickel imported from Indonesia was about 8 million tons, an increase of 2.61 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 484%；Except for Indonesia, imports from other countries totaled about 450,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 60,000 tons, a decrease of 118%。
After the oversupply led to a sharp drop in nickel prices, companies in the industrial chain also experienced a contraction in their earnings.
Zhou Maochan said that up to now, nickel prices have repeatedly improved, and the overall profit of integrated enterprises in the production of refined nickel has narrowed significantly. The profit of extracting intermediate products and nickel sulfate to produce refined nickel fluctuated with the fluctuation of nickel prices during the year. After September 2023, nickel prices will be sharply ** again, and the profits of externally mined nickel sulfate production will take the lead in inverting, and from November, the production of refined nickel from externally mined nickel intermediates will also begin to lose profits.
The data shows that in 2023, the spot profit of ferronickel in the main domestic producing areas will show a downward trend as a whole, and the average production cost of the RKEF process of domestic ferronickel plants will be 1195 yuan of nickel, a year-on-year decrease of 1334%；The average profit margin is -204%, a year-on-year decrease of 2333%。
At the same time, the domestic nickel sulfate production cost will decrease significantly in 2023, and the average cost of nickel sulfate production in China's MHP will be 32,855 yuan ton, a decrease of about 15 yuan from 20229%。However, in terms of profits, due to the poor demand for batteries and the surplus of nickel sulfate, the overall profit of nickel sulfate in 2023 will be low.
Looking forward to 2024, Zhou Maochan believes that the center of gravity of nickel prices will still move further downward, but the magnitude will be significantly narrower than that in 2023.
On the macro front, the domestic economy will rebound in 2024, but overseas will be affected by high inflation and geopolitical factors, and the recovery will be weaker than that at home, and commodities will be under pressure as a whole in the first half of the year. Fundamentally, the center of gravity of the domestic nickel ore market may move further downward in 2024, but the downward adjustment will be significantly narrower than that in 2023; Indonesia's domestic trade ore prices, especially wet mines**, will rebound slightly. The double squeeze on the upstream and downstream of the ferronickel market in China and Indonesia will continue, and the uncertainty of Indonesia's policy may be a phased rebound opportunity in 2024, and the impact of policy news on both ends of supply and demand may remain strong. In the first half of 2024, some domestic refined nickel production lines will still be put into operation, and the dependence on overseas imports will be further reduced, and the pressure of domestic refined nickel surplus will intensify. In terms of new energy, as downstream car companies still need time to destock, and lithium iron phosphate continues to replace ternary materials, the overall consumption growth rate of nickel for batteries is less than expected.
On the whole, the overall excess of the nickel industry will continue to increase in 2024, and it is difficult to hide the weakness of the nickel industry. From the perspective of rhythm, the overall consumption in the first half of the year was weak, but the industrial production line to be put into production, especially the refined nickel production line, was concentrated in the first half of the year, and the nickel price was under pressure under the condition of increasing surplus. In the second half of the year, consumption recovered, especially the nickel consumption at the battery end still has strong potential, and nickel prices gradually stopped falling and stabilized, showing a narrow range. It is estimated that the middle line of nickel prices in 2024 will be around 125,000 yuan, and the operating range will be 110,000 yuan-140,000 yuan, and the decline will be significantly narrowed. Pay attention to the impact of Indonesia's upcoming new nickel ore ** index on the overall nickel industry.
According to the Xinhu ** research report, the domestic refined nickel output reached a new high in December. Nickel is still in the stage of surplus, and inventories at home and abroad continue to accumulate, and overseas inventories have expanded. Although the current level of nickel prices is close to the cost of refining nickel from laterite nickel minerals, there is still a distance from the cost line, and the current nickel price has not brought about a reduction in the production of the industrial chain. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to fall until the industrial chain faces losses and reduces production.
Yinhe ** believes that the premium of Jinchuan nickel in the spot market continues to rise, reflecting the recovery of alloy demand and the impact of Spring Festival storage factors. The stabilization of nickel ore, ferronickel and nickel sulfate** also supported nickel prices. The fundamental changes are limited, and the sudden rise in the last half hour of the intraday market last night shows that the main force of the bears is reducing their positions in nickel and stainless steel at the same time. On the one hand, there is enthusiasm for stocking in the spot market recently, and on the other hand, the previous low has not been broken, and the pre-holiday funds have been profit-taking. It will be difficult for nickel prices to break down in the short term.
Editor-in-charge: Peng Bo Proofreader: Wang ChaoquanThese, users are watchingST Daji has received 6 one-word daily limits in a row! The concept of supply and marketing cooperatives has risen again; This provincial medical insurance news! The maternal and infant plates are boiling.
Fosun, continue to sell, sell, sell!
It's set! The first A-share delisted stock in 2024.
The epitome of Zhejiang businessmen in "Flowers": In the 90s, the old clothing company really asked Fei Xiang to endorse it.
Good start! Listed companies frequently sign large orders at the beginning of the year
Welcome to scan the code**e company app
First-hand informationFrontline interactionsOne-click publishingSettled in the capital circleA little little hands, a new experience! ▲