The ** slot of the New Year's movie is coming to an end.
Exciting results have been achieved:
The film hit a box office of 8 billion and attracted 1600 million viewers watched the movie, breaking the historical record.
The most lively time in the history of the Spring Festival file, half of the films were withdrawn.
"Let's Shake the Sun Together" announced that it will be suspended after the fifth day of the Lunar New Year, and it is planned to be released again on March 30 during the Qingming Festival.
Mr. Red Carpet declares a "communication failure", but when exactly will it be communicated again?
It is still not known. 
This caused the jubilant Spring Festival file to become bleak in an instant, and then the other two animated films were also announced to be withdrawn.
Some people ridiculed and said: If you run away if you can't win, isn't it just to make money?
Some people are also outraged and think that the behavior of big fish eating small fish is unfair.
It is indeed not an easy task to analyze the wave of revocation.
And not just because it's rare.
For more reasons:
The truth is becoming increasingly difficult to discern in this sea of data.
Therefore, on this day.
Please allow sir to comment on this "most lively Spring Festival stall in history".
Until the fifth day of the Lunar New Year.
The box office of "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Let's Shake the Sun Together" failed to break the 100 million mark.
The total box office of the Spring Festival stalls reached 8 billion yuan, but these films accounted for only 1%.
Many believe that this excellent film unfortunately met the wrong release time.
"Mr. Red Carpet" depicts the absurd face of the entertainment industry, which is difficult for the general audience to understand; and "Shaking the Sun" tells the story of fighting diseases, which is not suitable as the first choice film for the Spring Festival.
The niche genre has led to box office anomalies, a phenomenon that is difficult to explain.
Even if it is a non-mainstream movie, in the past Spring Festival files, as long as the reputation is okay, it will not necessarily be squeezed so badly.
2018's "Operation Red Sea" was the first to break the conventional tone of the Spring Festival file, and the war scenes in the film shed blood and severed limbs, but still achieved box office success; "No Name" directed by Cheng Er, which was released during the Spring Festival last year, also showed the author's distinctive style, and many viewers also expressed their incomprehension; And "Deep Sea" directed by Tian Xiaopeng tells the story of a depressed little girl, which also coincides with the atmosphere of the Spring Festival.
The daily box office of "No Name" and "Deep Sea" during the Spring Festival can exceed that of "Red Carpet" and "The Sun" by more than 5 times.
The actual situation is that "Red Carpet" and "Shaking the Sun" did not choose the wrong schedule.
Striving for the Spring Festival file is not blindly chasing popularity, but a wise choice made based on market experience, because for high-quality films, this timing is very important.
Why is the experience that didn't work this year still valid last year?
It's time to see the truth, in the midst of a bubble of good news that spreads frequently.
First of all, the survival prospects of theaters have become more uncertain, and the scheduling of films has become more cautious.
"Poisonous Eyes" reported that third- and fourth-tier cities such as Dongying, Shandong, have been severely squeezed since the beginning of the Lunar New Year.
The Spring Festival stall is very important for small cities, because it accounts for more than 30% of the year's income, which is more important than other festivals, including summer and National Day.
To secure profits, theater managers must schedule more screenings for movies with higher attendance.
He is the top player who fits the festive atmosphere and is already hot.
Even if they are not withdrawn, "Red Carpet" and "Shaking the Sun" may not have a chance to be released in theaters in small cities.
Another important factor.
This year's growth in moviegoers has reached a ceiling.
The number of viewers of the film reached 1600 million, it may seem amazing, but in fact it has a lot to do with the calculation method.
The box office of the Spring Festival stalls is calculated according to the number of days off.
The holiday lasts from Chinese New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the new year, but movies usually start to be released on the first day of the new year, so it is basically only equivalent to using 6 days.
This year, there is no holiday on Chinese New Year's Eve, and the algorithm is from the first to the eighth day of the new year, so a total of 2 days of vacation has been added.
According to the calculations of Xiaohongshu blogger @benieal, the number of moviegoers in this year's Spring Festival stalls actually reached 1300 million, which is equivalent to a large number of moviegoers every day from the first day of the new year to the sixth day of the new year.
What level is this?
1. in 20184.4 billion, 1. in 20193.1 billion and 1. in 2021600 million is not comparable.
Is this year better than last year?
However, objective circumstances must be taken into account.
Last year's film was generally longer, so the number of screenings that could be scheduled was 300,000 fewer than this year.
The attendance rate of this year's Spring Festival stalls is 32%, 38% last year, and 43% in 2021, which is gradually declining almost every year.
The film caused a great deal of discussion.
The box office performance of the Spring Festival stalls is still in full swing, which is unbelievable.
The decrease in the number of moviegoers and the decline in seat filling rates are all sending us a message:
This year's Spring Festival stalls are far less prosperous than expected.
When the house price is **, it always fails to sell in the third and fourth tier cities.
In the same way, if the Spring Festival film market does not perform well, the first films to be eliminated must be those films of average quality.
In the Spring Festival film market in 2021, "Hello! Li Huanying" and "Tang Detective 3" won 5 billion yuan and 4.6 billion yuan at the box office respectively, accounting for 80% of the total box office revenue of the Spring Festival stalls, showing the "28 effect" that appeared for the first time.
Despite this, the fantasy action film "Assassination of the ** Family" and the niche literary film "The Crowd" have both achieved box office results of 1 billion and 700 million.
Even in the case of a low number of moviegoers in 2022, "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf" was able to get 1600 million box office revenue.
Even so, "Mr. Red Carpet" has a rating of 6 on Douban8, but for audiences over 30 years old, Ning Hao and Andy Lau still have a strong appeal; And "Let's Shake the Sun Together" has a score of 7 on Douban9, although there are no top stars to participate, its theme is aimed at young people.
If a high-quality commercial film is not accurately positioned and established a good reputation, it may not achieve box office revenue and eventually have to stop its release.
This has already been indicated:
The box office performance during the Chinese New Year period was not satisfactory.
Now is no longer the time to simply lie flat and reap the benefits.
One can even assert it.
It has evolved into the most competitive battleground.
In the words of "Flying Spur 2", it is "extremely dry when it is dry, and very flood when it is flooding".
Mainstream** posted when the 8 films were finalized that this will be the most lively Spring Festival file in history.
However, in the process of careful identification, you may find that you are talking a little exaggeratedly.
8 movies were released during the Spring Festival, of which 3 were cartoons.
These two withdrawn cartoons are small and medium-budget productions, the quality is average, and the audience is highly overlapping with the audience of "Bear Infested", which is not as able to attract a large number of audiences and bring a new audio-visual experience like "Deep Sea".
Although the other 5 live-action movies have a good reputation, the themes are surprisingly similar.
When there are no blockbusters such as "The Wandering Earth" and "Assassination of the Family", which obviously focus on special effects, the audience will find that these films are small and medium-sized feature films.
Aside from the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, this has not happened in the past five years.
Compared with last year's Spring Festival stalls.
Due to the impact of the epidemic in the short term, 7 films have been scheduled, and these films cover a variety of different themes, none of which coincide.
The suspense comedy "Man Jianghong", the sci-fi blockbuster "The Wandering Earth 2", the romantic comedy "Exchanging Lives", the spy war action film "No Name", and the live-action sports program "Chinese Ping Pong".
Although "Deep Sea" and "Bear Infested" are both cartoons, they each have their own tones and audiences.
This year's Spring Festival stalls may be the most intolerant of various themes in the past.
The possibility of a dark horse counterattack no longer exists.
All these head films are "products" specially tailored for the Spring Festival.
With unmistakable marketing and publicity, no other film can take its place.
Further in-depth analysis.
Why do this year's Spring Festival movies tend to be promoted with comedy as the theme?
Flying Life 2 incorporates a lot of comedy elements; Jia Ling's movie "Hot and Hot", although there are many comedians, actually touches people's tear ducts more than causes laughter; "Mr. Red Carpet" is closer to the serious and absurd style of Ning Hao's early works, but it is not a typical popular comedy.
There is also a work called Article 20.
At its core, the film is a social critique and adaptation of a real case.
However, these labels were not mentioned in the early propaganda, and instead, the slogan "I love my home" was conservatively adopted.
Make it as suitable as possible for all family members.
The early publicity did not release too many funny clips, but focused on rendering Zhao Liying's bitter love drama, which led to the audience not having clear viewing expectations, which in turn led to the bottom of the film schedule and box office.
With the power of word of mouth, "Reality Care" achieved a box office counterattack before the end of the holiday, and has now surpassed "Hot" and "Flying Spur 2" to become the daily champion.
What effect would have had if the early publicity of Article 20 had not been a comedy-based exercise, but a critique of reality?
The reality may not be so rosy.
What may be even more heartbreaking is the timing of the film.
With the expansion of the Spring Festival stalls, the film industry is shrinking.
People are increasingly gravitating towards the cinema to experience the festive atmosphere and enjoy it.
rather than an appreciation of the film itself.
Twinkle Twinkle Twinkle Star launched a snow resort on this year's New Year's Eve, which was hotly discussed.
The box office of the movie has exceeded 700 million.
After this movie has passed the hot period, will it still attract the attention of the audience?
Judging by the daily box office data, this movie is simply a "two-night love".
Everyone has a great enthusiasm for watching movies in the past few years, and they are no longer satisfied with the unchanged Chinese New Year's Eve dinner-style movies during the Spring Festival, but hope to see more movies of different genres during the Spring Festival to enrich the viewing experience.
Now the situation is completely reversed again.
Perhaps a change in audience has led to a change in demand, rather than a change in demand itself.
The audience's focus has shifted to "realistic" pain points, relying on short information and craving emotional stimulation every five minutes, and these groups have become the main ones.
Therefore, it is difficult to be weird.
Today's creators are already deeply affected by high levels of stress.
To ensure the safety of the landing.
Only the careful placement of the "comedy" element in the most prominent position conceals the real edge.
"Mr. Red Carpet" was actually originally scheduled to be released in November last year, but was later postponed to January, and finally decided to be released during the Spring Festival.
This is because the film requires an investment of up to 200 million before it is expected to reach 800 million at the box office to recoup its costs.
From last year's National Day to this year's Spring Festival, the attendance rate of theaters has been quite sluggish.
Even the highly anticipated annual blockbusters like "Aquaman 2" and "Wading in the Angry Sea" only had a final box office of about 300 million.
Therefore, "Mr. Red Carpet" chose to be released during the Spring Festival, which can also be seen as a helpless move to some extent.
Shaking the Sun is currently announced to be finalized before the Qingming Festival.
That's what everyone generally thinks is appropriate.
A work whose theme is a discussion of death, but one that inspires a passion for life.
This conclusion seems to be flawless.
However, this was not what we expected from the market in the past.
It's like the Spring Festival stall in 2022.
Other movies were squeezed to the margins because "Changjin Lake", as a mainstream blockbuster, won the box office championship crushingly.
As the survival situation of theaters has become more anxious, excellent film works are afraid to be released during non-holiday periods.
Jia Zhangke has expressed concern about this unhealthy market structure.
In recent years, the genre of successful cinema has been too one-dimensional. We rely too much on schedules and treat movies as a cheap and regular form of entertainment, and audiences used to be able to watch one or two movies a week, but now they only go to movies during the Spring Festival or popular schedules, which is not normal.
The reason why "Red Carpet" and "Shaking the Sun" chose to be released during the Spring Festival is not only to achieve box office success, but also to set a good example for the entire film industry.
Ning Hao said that the schedule is not fate, I think the Spring Festival is not only suitable for family reunions, but also should present some unique content to the audience.
Han Yan said, I think the film is suitable for release at any time period, and the market demand should be different.
China's film market has achieved phenomenal results in the past year, with a total box office of 55 billion yuan.
There are no imported pieces in the first ten positions.
Has the culture fully built self-confidence?
Please observe carefully.
The size of the audience fell by nearly 600 million, not even compared to 2021, when there were intermittent lockdowns, compared to 2019.
Why is there such a huge gap?
Perhaps this is the so-called "differentiation" that Ning Hao and Han Yan are talking about.
Mature directors can easily "tailor" their productions to the holiday schedule; And it's not hard to spend most of your investment on marketing that will boost the box office.
If we have a market where everyone dares to be a product manager, they only cater to the interests of the masses and mass-produce disposable consumer goods, instead of pursuing innovation.
Where is the future of cinema headed?
During this year's Spring Festival, the movie "Hot and Hot" became the focus of ** with unparalleled popularity.
This is obviously the success of the publicity campaign, and it is also the embodiment of Jia Ling's personal charm.
But what makes Sir feel in crisis is:
When we return to the realm of film criticism, we find that the space for review is getting tighter and smaller.
The creator of the film lacks freedom.
They take on too many things and are more like busy little bosses than craftsmen who focus on creating.
Factors such as the market, censorship, and schedule need to be carefully considered, and if you make a mistake, it will be like "Red Carpet" and "Shaking the Sun", and it will be a failure.
Moviegoers lack freedom.
When you enter the cinema, you don't have to be attracted to the movie.
More often than not, people are simply paying the price of information isolation and social recognition.
You can't decide what to watch, when, and if you can see the full version.
After buying movie tickets, I want to maintain a good viewing environment and call on everyone to uphold common sense, but I may be accused by others of "putting on a high posture".
The freedom of cinema is restricted.
The hardest times are behind us.
The question of survival remains unresolved.
On a normal day without any holidays, fare subsidies or homecoming rushes, the carriage is pitifully scarce.
In order to survive, people will no longer put art in the position of generating electricity, and more films will be allocated to those with deep pockets.
Even movie theaters are expanding their business to include live football games, midday services, etc.
Our understanding of this matter is becoming more and more limited.
Why is it that despite the seemingly good situation, there is no way to go back to the past?
There are many films that have been brought in, but again they don't seem to be really introduced.
You can't keep up to date with them.
They can no longer be talked about without restraint.
You're still obsessed with the movie.
However, the importance of cinema is no longer reflected in the acting, aesthetics, and storyline.
Compare to these.
Who is able to monopolize the market during the hot time period.
Who would dare to invest heavily to compete for the release time of the movie.
Who is better able to profoundly express the will of the mainstream?
A film can be ** and get awards, that's why it's it.
Today, Sir not only wants to cheer for the withdrawn "Mr. Red Carpet" and "Let's Shake the Sun Together".
Hopefully, they will all be released at the right time and touch a like-minded audience.
Hope at the same time.
One day, our market will no longer be overwhelmed by exaggerated praise, but will tolerate the voice of criticism, embrace all opinions based on creativity rather than correctness, and let cinema return to its essence.
One day, our film will no longer be a celebration of independent development, but can actively participate in global competition and make progress together like setting sail.
Eventually, it all ended in an epilogue.
Sir, can you reimagine this passage? Director Zheng made the following remarks at the Berlin Film Festival:
May our minds never be bound.
Everyone who cherishes and respects movies can reach it.
The cumulative box office of the top 4 Spring Festival movies broke 10