Our reporter Ci Yupeng reports from Beijing.
Recently, the 25th Peking University Guanghua New Year Forum was held in the Centennial Lecture Hall of Peking University, with the theme of "Growth Momentum, China Exploration". At the forum, Liu Qiao, dean and professor of Guanghua School of Management of Peking University, released the "Research Report on the Goals, Directions and Paths of Chinese Modernization" on behalf of the research group of Guanghua School of Management.
What does Chinese modernization look like? What path choices and key deployments are needed to achieve Chinese-style modernization? The report reflects the five characteristics of Chinese modernization from four dimensions – economic, social, political and ecological, with a total of 55 indicators.
At the forum, Liu Qiao focused on five key indicators: total factor productivity and its growth rate, the upstream of the global value chain, household consumption rate and disposable income, the difference between the urbanization rate of the permanent population and the urbanization rate of the registered population, and the economic indicators beyond GDP.
Among them, investment is the key to promoting total factor productivity growth. Liu Qiao told the reporter of "China Business Daily" that the focus is to maintain a certain investment intensity in the current or future node industry and node field. He told reporters for example that to achieve the "double carbon" goal, it is estimated that China needs to invest nearly 300 trillion yuan before 2050; For another example, 5G and 6G, as the core components of China's reindustrialization infrastructure, need to invest in important basic core areas.
Key indicator 1: Total factor productivity
The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China further put forward urgent and specific requirements for high-quality economic development, with a special emphasis on "focusing on improving total factor productivity". Improving total factor productivity is the main driving force for China's economic growth, and it is also the source of China's continuous formation of new quality productivity in the future. When interpreting the spirit of the 2023 Economic Work Conference, the relevant person in charge of the Office of the Financial and Economic Committee mentioned that "the new quality productivity is based on the improvement of total factor productivity".
Why is TFP so important? According to Liu Qiao's analysis, its basic logic can be traced back to the "growth theory". According to Robert Solow's Solow model, a country's economic growth can be explained by factor (capital, labor) growth and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. In the first three decades of reform and opening up, China vigorously promoted the process of industrialization, and the growth rate of total factor productivity, the most important driver of economic growth, remained around 4%, and the growth rate of total factor productivity contributed nearly 40% of GDP growth during the same period. This explains why China's economy was able to maintain an average annual economic growth rate of 10% in the three decades from 1980 to 2009.
China's traditional industrialization process has come to an end, and it can even be said that it has basically ended, and China's total factor productivity growth rate has begun to decline, from an average of 4% per year in the industrialization stage to less than 2%. No country or economy in the West has yet to maintain 2The average annual growth rate of total factor productivity is about 5%. Taking the United States as an example, the United States basically completed the process of industrialization in the sixties and seventies of the 20th century, and the total factor productivity of the United States was only maintained within 1 percent, and in recent years it has even dropped toAround 5%, which also explains why the long-term growth rate of the United States can only reach 1About 5%.
The traditional view is that after China's total factor productivity falls to less than 2%, China's long-term growth rate will be about 3%-4%, and China will face the same challenge of productivity growth as Western countries for a long time. In Liu Qiao's view, after the end of the industrialization process, China can still find a series of structural factors that will drive the growth of total factor productivity, from the current level of less than 2%** to 2.2% in the next decade or soTotal factor productivity growth rate of 5% or more, so as to achieve a medium- to long-term GDP growth rate of about 5%. The judgment of the future growth rate of total factor productivity determines our judgment on the future growth space of China's economy to a large extent. This is also the reason why the growth rate of total factor productivity was chosen as the core evaluation index.
Investment will be important in the next decade or so. When talking about how to maintain total factor productivity growth, Liu Qiao emphasized that through data analysis of the 40 years from 1978 to 2017, every 10 percentage points increase in China's investment rate will drive the total factor productivity growth of the overall economy by 118 percentage points, there is a very significant positive correlation between the two.
Liu Qiao said that considering the characteristics of China's economic growth model, it can focus on the investment and financing of node industries and node fields through the "** market", which has a huge ability to stimulate the employment of upstream and downstream market players, so if you want to maintain investment intensity, you need to maintain a certain investment intensity in the current or future node industries and node fields in the future.
While emphasizing the development of new quality productivity, the 2023 ** Economic Work Conference also proposed to "build a number of strategic emerging industries such as biomanufacturing, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy, and open up new tracks for future industries such as quantum and life sciences". These industries and fields are expected to become node industries and node fields.
Liu Qiao gave an example to reporters: "To achieve the 'double carbon' goal, we estimate that China needs to invest nearly 300 trillion yuan before 2050. If these investments are evenly distributed over the next 30 years, it means that our annual investment in carbon neutrality is equivalent to 8% of GDP. These investments will be one of the biggest drivers of China's economic momentum. The investment and financing, technological change, industrial policy and business model innovation around the node industry will determine China's path to carbon neutrality. ”
In addition, Liu Qiao told reporters for example, 5G 6G, as a core component of China's re-industrialization infrastructure, is also an important basic core area that needs investment, "Our estimates show that under the benchmark scenario, the introduction of 5G industry will bring 31."21 trillion yuan of new GDP. If the industry is more active in introducing innovation and the participation of market micro entities is more active, the new added value brought by 5G application scenarios may far exceed 3121 trillion yuan, and even 60 trillion yuan. The value added brought by 5G is mainly concentrated in the 6G era after 2026-2030. ”
Key indicator 2: Global value chains
Liu Qiao said that in the past few decades, China has actively participated in the global industrial division of labor and become an important participant in the global value chain. China's current participation in the global value chain (after the proportion of domestic and foreign intermediate goods in exports) is as high as 626%, much higher than 46 in the United States9% and 47 in Japan8%。In addition to global engagement, we need to focus on our position in the global value chain. If a country is in the middle and lower reaches of the global value chain, its development can easily be stifled by the upstream economies or countries.
According to the research group's calculations, the value of the upstream degree of China's value chain is 001, 0. in the United States in the same period29, 0 in Germany14, 0 in Japan08, "The horizontal comparison reminds us that our position in global value is much more disadvantageous than that of major industrialized countries such as the United States. In an era when globalization is progressing smoothly, this may not be a very important issue, but with the drastic changes in the domestic and foreign environment, the pattern of science and technology, economy, and security between bilateral and multilateral relations is undergoing profound adjustments, and its importance is becoming more and more prominent. We emphasize the resilience and security of the industrial chain, and emphasize that 'Chinese modernization is modernization on the path of peaceful development', and in this case, China's position in the global value chain is very important. Therefore, the indicator of 'global value chain' itself is also one of the important indicators to pay attention to the process of modernization and the quality of development. ”
China's position in the global value chain needs to move up the level of Japan, Germany and even the United States, and a lot of efforts will need to be made in the next decade or so, the most important of which is research and development, especially in the field of basic research. Liu Qiao said that in terms of total investment, in 2022, China's R&D expenditure will exceed 3 trillion yuan for the first time, and the R&D intensity will also reach the highest 255%, which is the average of industrialized countries, but 345%, Japan 326%, Germany 3There is still a big gap compared to the level of 14%. In the field of basic research, the proportion of basic research investment in R&D expenditure in developed countries in Europe and the United States has basically stabilized at more than 12%, while that in the United States is about 15%, and the investment in basic research has greatly exceeded that of China. In 2022, China's basic research funding has just exceeded 200 billion yuan, and the United States' funds for basic research should be more than 1 trillion yuan, which is five times that of ours. China's investment in basic research will account for 63%, which is still far below the level of 12%-25% in major economies. Therefore, while increasing the total investment, the structural problem of the relatively insufficient proportion of basic research in R&D expenditure in China also needs to be changed urgently.
The research and development of basic research is the most important foundation for a country to truly control the commanding heights in global competition, which is related to promoting China's realization of high-level self-reliance and self-reliance in science and technology, and enhancing China's position in the global value chain. Liu Qiao suggested that basic research is difficult, the cycle is long, and the risk is high, and in this process, it is necessary to give full play to the positive role and guiding role of finance, especially the leading finance, and invest the funds obtained in the bottom, major, and cutting-edge technological innovation fields that are difficult to rely only on market forces through the issuance of long-term treasury bonds. At the same time, it is necessary to fully mobilize market forces, further improve the valuation system of scientific and technological innovation, and incorporate the part of the social return brought by basic research that is greater than the return on capital into the enterprise valuation system, so as to realize the valuation premium of scientific and technological innovation, so as to effectively stimulate the enthusiasm of innovative subjects to invest in basic research, and then promote the innovation and development of the whole society.
Key Indicator 3: Household consumption rate and disposable income
From the "14th Five-Year Plan" outline emphasizing "accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles reinforcing each other", to the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposing to "enhance the endogenous power and reliability of the domestic cycle, and improve the quality and level of the international cycle", and then to the focus on expanding domestic demand in 2024 at the ** Economic Work Conference held not long ago, it shows that the role of a strong domestic market and the rising consumer consumption rate in China's economic and social development will become more and more important.
Liu Qiao said that from a fundamental point of view, China's current resident consumption rate accounts for about 38%-39% of GDP. From the perspective of international comparison, this proportion is significantly lower than the level of about 70% in the United States and about 65% in Japan. It is expected that with the formation of a strong domestic market, the fundamental role of consumption in economic and social development, and the increase of disposable income, China's household consumption rate will increase to more than 60% in 2035, of which the proportion of service consumption in consumption will also increase to more than 60%.
The key factor behind the low consumption rate is the low proportion of disposable income in GDP. In the decade from 2012 to 2021, the proportion of GDP in China's disposable income was between 42% and 45%, and in most years it was about 43%, far lower than the level of 70% in the United States in the same period. The global average for this indicator is 60%. Whether this indicator can be raised to 60% or even higher in the future is of great significance for assessing the quality of economic development.
So, how to increase the proportion of disposable income of residents? Liu Qiao analyzed that there are many links that can be optimized, such as: in the primary distribution of national income, can the proportion of labor income be increased? In the second distribution, can the consumption power of urban and rural residents be increased in the form of transfer payments in the form of tax revenues? In addition, China's current per capita property income is 4% of per capita GDP, far lower than the 16% of the United States. If the property income of Chinese residents reaches the level of the United States, the proportion of disposable income in GDP of Chinese residents can be increased from about 43% to 55%, which will greatly increase the level of residents' consumption rate.
In terms of increasing residents' income, Liu Qiao told reporters that the Politburo meeting in April 2023 proposed that "it is necessary to increase the income of urban and rural residents through multiple channels". do everything possible to expand employment and increase wage income; increase social security, transfer payments and other adjustments, and increase the transfer income of low-income groups; The high savings accumulated by the public sector over the years can also be unleashed to increase the current cash flow of ordinary people. As of the end of 2022, the balance of China's housing provident fund contribution exceeded 9 trillion yuan, which can increase the current income of residents by allowing provident fund holders to apply for redemption freely. The income of low-income groups has been greatly affected after the epidemic, and it is recommended to directly distribute money to low-income groups. Sending money directly is a good way to do it, and it is of great significance to stimulate demand.
Liu Qiao told reporters that at the specific operational level, transfer payments to individuals and families can be combined with the elimination of the "digital divide", so as to integrate more than 200 million low-income groups into the digital economic system based on mobile Internet and promote common prosperity. Through the collaboration of telecommunications, third-party payment platforms, civil affairs departments, finance departments, etc., the beneficiary groups are identified and digital consumption vouchers are accurately issued. China's long-term investment in digital economy infrastructure and a large number of innovations in application scenarios have brought a lot of space for the design and implementation of such policies.
Key Indicator 4: Promote rural revitalization and people-centered urbanization
Liu Qiao said that unequal income and development opportunities are a chronic disease that restricts China's modernization process. Chinese modernization is the modernization of common prosperity for all people, and it is the essence of promoting common prosperity for all people to let the fruits of modernization benefit all people more and more fairly. This is why we have taken "promoting rural revitalization and people-centered urbanization" as one of the most important indicators.
China's income and opportunity inequality is reflected in the rural-urban binary structure. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the gap between the disposable income of urban and rural residents in China has been narrowing. At present, the disposable income of urban residents in China is still 2 of that of rural residentsAbout 5 times. Even in Zhejiang, a demonstration province of common prosperity, this figure is the lowest, but it is also 17 times the difference. By 2035, when socialist modernization is basically realized, this gap should be reduced to a very low proportion in order to achieve common prosperity in the true sense.
Why is there such a large urban-rural income gap? Liu Qiao analyzed, on the one hand, the total factor productivity of agriculture is relatively low. In 2020, the value added of agriculture accounted for 74%, but still occupies 246% of the employed population, which is almost equivalent to 7A quarter of the total employed population of 500 million. The fact that such a large employment group contributes such a low proportion of added value indicates that the level of agricultural total factor productivity is low, and it also shows that agricultural reform and rural revitalization are imminent.
According to the research group's calculations, by 2035, if it is to reach the level of a modern country, the agricultural employment population may fall to the level of about 6%, which means that there will be 1400 million people employed in agriculture need to be transferred across sectors.
In addition, there are reasons for the low degree of urbanization of the rural migrant population. In 2021, the urbanization rate of China's registered population (the ratio of the non-agricultural population to the total registered population) was 47%, while the urbanization rate of the permanent population (the ratio of the number of people living in cities and towns for more than six months to the total population at the end of the year) was 65%. There is an 18 percentage point difference between the two. This means that China has 25.5 billion people live in cities but do not have a household registration. Plus there is 1 more in the future400 million people will move from rural to urban areas, and a total of 400 million people may need to live in cities in the future to complete the change of social identity.
When there is a large influx of people in cities, their consumption will have an impact on the local industrial structure and the efficiency of investment in public services. For example, in the field of real estate, the first choice of these new citizens may no longer be to buy commercial housing, but more to consider affordable housing, or affordable rental housing, which will bring a new real estate development model.
Liu Qiao stressed that whether the gap between the urbanization rate of the permanent population and the urbanization rate of the registered population by 18 percentage points can gradually decrease and eventually approach zero should become one of the important indicators to measure China's modernization process.
Key Indicator 5: Economic indicators that "exceed GDP".
The five characteristics of Chinese-style modernization determine that China's economic policy target system should not be limited to traditional GDP indicators or growth rates. Liu Qiao said that gross domestic product (GDP) is a macroeconomic indicator used to measure the scale of a country's (or regional) economic operation, which has the characteristics of comprehensiveness, systematic, scientific, coherence and comparability, and is widely used in politics, economy, diplomacy and other fields. Economists once hailed GDP as one of the greatest inventions of the 20th century. However, using GDP as a measure of human well-being is not perfect. For example, GDP cannot measure non-material welfare, cannot measure the quality of growth, ignores the problem of negative externalities, and its applicability and accuracy in developing countries are also questioned.
In this context, the research team of Guanghua School of Management adopted a research method similar to that of finance, broke through the limitations of GDP in the construction and selection of indicators, and creatively proposed the concept of "GDP adjustment factor" and the concept of "effective GDP". Among them, the effective GDP reflects the real development level of each country under the concept of "ideal development model"; The GDP adjustment factor is a function of a series of important indicators to measure people's quality of life or welfare, which can be used as a discount factor for the development level of various countries to benchmark the "ideal development model", and play a role in adjusting and correcting GDP.
The index system that constitutes the GDP adjustment factor includes seven aspects: labor productivity, Gini coefficient, life expectancy at birth, total factor productivity growth (5-year average), proportion of population with household access to basic public services, proportion of employed population below the international poverty line, and passenger traffic. It should be emphasized that the GDP adjustment factor, which is based on the above seven indicators and reflects the concept and characteristics of Chinese-style modernization development, has a very high correlation with the nearly 200 indicators (SDGs) of the United Nations Sustainable Development in 2030, which has stronger explanatory power than the SDGS index and has more advantages in measuring the efficiency of high-quality sustainable development. The preliminary results of the research team's collation and calculation of publicly available data show that this side** has supplemented and improved the traditional GDP and the existing transcendent GDP indicator system from a new perspective, and creatively constructed an indicator to measure the level of human well-being.
Liu Qiao said that the economic indicator of "surpassing GDP" is a summary index for us to evaluate China's development level in the future, and it reflects the development concept, development direction and path of Chinese-style modernization.
Editor: Zhu Ziyun Proofreader: Zhai Jun).