Enjoy the New Year
The Spring Festival of the property market is quiet, but perhaps there are waves under the calm, but it is not reflected in the way of group or market behavior, thanks to the Spring Festival, the regular migration of one billion people from the north and south, the success of the property market suspense to the post-holiday, perhaps at the end of February or even March, just to give Xiaoyangchun a proof of voting with his feet.
1. Why did Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Suzhou come out with the policy before the year?
The reason why this year's Spring Festival is related to the property market is not the year-round non-stop caused by the turbulent property market, nor the good news brought by returning to the hometown to buy a home, but - the four major first-tier cities plus Suzhou have all "grabbed" the property market relaxation policy before the holiday, this abnormal move was surprising at first, but think about the perfunctory sentence often heard in the conference room: "The amount of information is too big, let me go home and digest it", and it suddenly became clear.
It turns out that the property market policy, or the management that introduced the policy, has assigned hundreds of millions of home buyers to go home for the Spring Festival: In 2024, to buy or not to buy? This is a problem.
This year's Spring Festival is the first to mid-February, removing the factors that Chinese attach the most importance to, presumably the 40 days after New Year's Day are basically the garbage time of the property market, because the work efficiency of the month before the Spring Festival is the lowest: some people are anxious to go home to grab tickets, some people are looking forward to the year-end bonus, and some people are busy buying New Year's goods, unless the market "urgent" causes the purchase of houses does not stop, but think about the weakness and collapse of the property market in various places in 2023, buying a house is definitely not in a hurry.
From the standpoint of the audience, the question of "why the policy" is far less than [why the policy (policy)] is far less than [why the policy came out before the year], after all, the policy is the general trend, because the repeated policy relaxation can not withstand the waves, so further relaxation is predictable, but the conventional thinking always thinks: the new year is good, catch up with the small spring, and the effect is immediately visible!
Only this time, make full use of the 40-day "overtime period" from New Year's Day to the Spring Festival, not only out of policy but also big moves, so that in all fairness, it does belong to "the amount of information is too big, let me go home and digest it", which is the humanized consideration of the pre-holiday rush policy in first-tier cities.
Also, the four first-tier cities plus a strong second-tier city on behalf of Suzhou, the introduction of large-scale favorable policies, are stronger than any previous relaxation measures, compared with the previous three months of a cut in interest rates and reserve requirements, this time as Zhou Libo joked: "Open the door and even remove the door cover together", the small heart of buyers also needs to slow down.
Moreover, in the past two years, the current situation of the property market has made the three major beliefs of buyers have at least partial self-doubt: "buy a house to make money, smash the pot and sell iron to buy a house, and ask for a house without cash".
If buying a house before was "the whole family agrees, but the funds need crowdfunding", now buying a house is not only a matter of money, but also has different opinions on decision-making.
Therefore, buyers need to be given a longer decision-making time.
Second, Guangzhou robs the rich, Shanghai robs the poor, Shenzhen robs the locals, Beijing holds a "human field", and Suzhou is an individual to rob.
Well, under the city-specific policy, let's see if the property market in these five cities is relaxed, do they have their own focus?
Looking back from the timeline, from January 27th to February 7th, the five cities lined up as if they had discussed in advance for the official announcement:
The first to start the "profit" of the property market is Guangzhou, which can be summed up in three ways:
The purchase restriction of houses above square meters has been lifted in the city;
2. After the local resident's house is rented for the record, it is not counted as the number of units held;
3. There is no restriction on the transfer object of commercial apartments.
Three days later, on January 30, "Shanghai sticks to Suzhou" issued a policy:
First of all, Suzhou put it to the end: "Completely cancel the housing purchase restrictions: buying a house does not do the qualification review for buying a house, and the new house is still limited to sale for two years"; Three hours later, Shanghai followed up: "From January 31, non-registered residents of Shanghai who have paid social insurance or individual income tax for five consecutive years or more can purchase one house in areas outside the outer ring (except Chongming District)." BTW, in the past, non-Shanghai residents were required to meet the two conditions of 5 years of social security and married at the same time to buy a house.
After Shanghai's statement, Beijing, the last place of the "Beijing-Shanghai property market fortress", finally felt that it (no longer expressed its position) damaged the tone of the eldest son of the republic, although the scale was the smallest: "On February 6, Beijing adjusted the housing purchase policy in Tongzhou District, and four types of families with Beijing housing purchase qualifications can buy one commercial housing in Tongzhou District. The biggest change in the new policy is that families who have settled and worked in Tongzhou have been abolished for 3 years of residency, social security or tax payment in Tongzhou, and as long as they meet Beijing's overall purchase restriction policy, they can buy 1 house in Tongzhou. ”
The finale is Shenzhen, a first-tier city adjacent to Guangzhou, which finally couldn't sit still after 10 days of the former's favorable policies, and promulgated the "Shenzhen brand" property market relaxation policy: Shenzhen's household registration households (including families with some family members who are registered residents of the city) are limited to 2 houses, and adult singles (including divorced) with household registration in the city are limited to 1 house; The requirements for the number of years of settlement and the number of years of payment of individual income tax and social insurance will be abolished. Families who are not registered residents of the city and adult single persons (including divorced) who can provide proof of continuous payment of individual income tax or social insurance in the city for 3 years before the date of purchase are limited to 1 house.
For the buyers in the above five places, Beijing's policy is obviously unwilling, so Tongzhou, which has the smallest scale and limited liberalization, is not at all a "coveted zone" for home buyers, but more like the "ICU right and wrong" of Beijing's property market, more like - you have all expressed your position, I will follow a molecule to hold a personal field!
However, the policies of the other four cities have been introduced, at least from the appeal of their own plans: Guangzhou grabs the rich, Shanghai grabs the poor, Shenzhen inspires locals, and Suzhou is "an individual", but compared with the practice of the previous policy has not yet been liberalized, including Suzhou - in fact, there is no restriction on purchases for a long time, but this time it is just an official announcement.
Third, the policy has been played clearly, and it is the buyers who are not sure (attitude).
Well, regardless of the scale and goals, but on the whole, the policy has been "in place before the holiday", and next, how to respond to the management's hydrangea, it depends on the buyers in the east, west, north and south, go home to discuss.
This Spring Festival, the topic of family reunion of buyers is estimated to be the house, but it is different from the past "showing off to buy a house" and "raising funds", this time it is really a family meeting - to make a decision, yes or no, this is not only a problem, but also an issue that may have a big internal disagreement.
In fact, from the pre-holiday call to the above five cities of the relevant case site and peer feedback, the immediate effect of the policy basically belongs to "the property market here is quiet", Shanghai has more since the first day of the introduction of the new policy on the second day of the target relaxation area of the relevant case site results, but also just as the management's humane prediction:
1. There will be no reaction before the holiday, and now you need to go home to discuss buying a house;
2. Give the buyer a little time to let the buyer's family unify their thoughts.
Although there is one more day of national holiday during the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon, home buyers have layers of psychological burdens:
First of all, you have to have a tendency to buy or not, and then convince your family;
secondly, even if you are "admitted" people, whether you accept or not is your own interpretation of "whether the housing price is in the end";
In addition, whether to buy a house in the "current city" should also be considered as a whole about the direction of personal development;
Fourth, it is necessary to do a good job of "Titanic preset", that is, what if the house price continues to **?
Regarding housing prices, the voice of "Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen will always rise" has declined, and now there is only the shy answer of "Beijing and Shanghai will always rise", and the differentiation of the faith position will form an adductive butterfly effect: try to buy first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities, and try to buy the urban areas of the above cities (preferably the city center), which seems to be fine, but they know each other well, the so-called security and so-called value preservation and appreciation - are relative.
To buy or not to buy? Buy**?
How many houses to buy? It is estimated that after discussing these three issues for three days and three nights, it may not be possible to reach a reunification.
During the festival, also with the above-mentioned city peers, market analysis work peers and front-line sales or intermediary peers had a loose and brief exchange, and the past policy feedback "have a say" is different, each line of peers do not forget to say at the end of the exchange: "take a look after the holiday"!
As a result, the practitioners are looking at the buyers, and the buyers are looking at the market, but the "market" cannot be seen or touched.
Perhaps in this 8-day long holiday, everyone who is directly or indirectly related to the property market has thousands of knots in their hearts, and they have expectations and fears for the future.