The closer we get to the end of the year, the more the market changes.
Two days ago, the price of pigs suddenly plummeted, flashing the old waist of the marketAs a result, the price of pigs has not stabilized, and corn has also fallen.
Corn and hogs are actually similar in many ways.
For example,Both of them basically belong to the stage of the previous year, but the probability of going out after the year is very high.
On the one hand, the pressure is too great, the market demand is insufficient, and it is difficult to consume the selling pressure.
Even during the Spring Festival, consumption is not as good as in previous years, so the increase in consumption is limited, which leads to the enthusiasm of various enterprises to stock up is not high, and the stocking strength is limited compared with previous years.
So whether it's hog or corn,The consumption before the year was not enough to reverse the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the pressure will continue directly after the year.
On the other hand,There is still a wave of risks after the year.
The risk of pig prices is that the consumption is off-season and falls to the bottom, while the risk of corn is that the grain is lying on the ground.
So this also means that the first year of the year is phased, and the risk of continuing after the year is greater.
But no one thought that,Corn suddenly fell.
According to the latest announcement,Heilongjiang Jingliang Longjiang and Qinggang Kongfeng have successively lowered the corn **, and the purchase price of 14 water corn is 106 yuan catty, 30 water is 08,565 yuan per kilogram, down by 10 yuan per ton.
Although the decline is not large, but the corn is full of strength, and the sudden fall has aroused a lot of attention.
First, is corn not going to rise?
As the Chinese New Year approaches, corn has rebounded, which is exciting, but there are also concerns about how much corn can rise?
In fact, we have analyzed this problem a long time agoCorn does not have the conditions for a comprehensive reboundOn the one hand, the rebound of the previous year is that enterprises do have a certain demand for stocking, which drives the demand for corn to increase;
On the other hand, with the continuous acquisition of increased reserves, the impact on the market has gradually become effective, and corn has a trend of "bottoming out".
But that's all, if the corn wants to go to the next level, it is not easy, or the hope is very slim.
So,Even if corn does not have this fall, this wave of rally is basically over.
Second, is corn going to fall?
I don't think necessarily, it doesn't mean that it is about to fall, and now there are more and more companies that stop harvesting, and corn is basically in a situation where purchase and sales are suspendedIt's all stopped, let alone falling or not falling.
But I think it's just like the sudden ** of pig pricesThe suddenness of corn has also given the market a wake-up call:
First, the ** of corn has basically reached the "top".
Just like the pig price, behind the sudden pig price, it is actually the real reaction of the logic of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market, that is, although the pig price has risen in stages, it is not unlimited, or its ceiling is more obvious.
Especially after the pig price fell like this, the ceiling was basically clearly visible.
It's the same with corn.
The first year of corn is not without a "top", no matter what the reason is, the company has lowered itIt also objectively shows that the ** of corn has basically reached the "top".
Second, downstream demand is limited.
Although there are also views that this move of the enterprise may be a deliberate price reduction to shake the market, in order to let the main body of grain hold see that the price has been reduced, and the sentiment of selling grain rises again, so it is one"Little routine".
But in fact, no matter whether it is a routine or not, from corn ** to now, we can also see that the increase is relatively slow, which also shows two things:
On the one hand, businesses remain cautious.
Even if there is a demand for stocking, even if corn starts to rise, tooThe so-called "grain grab" war was not started, because the market's bearish sentiment on the follow-up corn was still strong, so it behaved cautiously.
On the other hand, downstream demand is indeed weak.
Whether it is deep processing or feed enterprises, the demand for corn is still limited, at least compared with the huge selling pressure of corn, far from reaching the balance between supply and demand.
This also means that the first half of the corn is about to end, and as soon as the Spring Festival passes, the second half will continue.
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