CornMarket movements have been closely watched. Recently, there has been some speculation in the market about the upcoming Spring Festival grain market. On the one hand, everyone is thinking about whether the main body of grain collection will act before the Spring Festival, and the major main body of grain collection usually replenishes the warehouse before the Spring Festival, but due to last yearCornThe progress of the acquisition is not ideal, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market towards the main body of grain collection. Therefore, the market expects the main body of grain to take action to alleviate the situationCornof the situation. On the other hand, the market is also paying attention to whether the main body of grain sellers will be listed in a centralized manner, and some farmers facing financial pressure may sell grain before the year. And due toCorn**Continue**, many grain-holding entities are more pessimistic about the market trend after the year, so they are more inclined to be in the new year**. In general, a situation of centralized listing may be formed before the year. While the market speculated whether the east wind overwhelmed the west wind, the news of the increase in reserves completely shattered the market's speculation. CornIn a one-sided manner, it began to decline sharply. As the saying goes", ".CornOne fall, one hundred falls", the market really verified the accuracy of this sentence. InCornAfter,SoybeansI also started to feel the pressure. Due toCornwithSoybeansThe main producing areas are highly overlapped and the planting and market times are also highly consistent, which leads to significant competitive pressures. Due to the continued weakening of new beans this year, and even the warehouse reserves** have decreased a lot compared with last year, coupled with the fact that the downstream demand is weak after the reserve purchase is basically over, the price of beans has further declined. Currently,SoybeansThe mainstream purchase price has been reduced to 22-2.3 yuan catty, close to the cost line, which makes the first businessmen and farmers feel confused, and they have sighed this yearSoybeansThe market is too tough. As can be seen from the previous analysis,SoybeansThe main problem is that the upstream ** continues to increase, while the downstream demand cannot keep up, thereforeSoybeansThe support mainly depends on the storage policy. Although the storage policy is not very powerful, the scope of storage increase is wide, and many storage points are on the list of storage increases. This means that the storage process will consume a lot of manpower, material resources and storage capacity, which may make it possible to make it years laterSoybeansThe desire to increase reserves has been disappointed. ForSoybeansThere is little hope for the collection and storage, and it is once again at an impasse.
Now,CornSoybeanswithWheatAll are facing the dilemma of ***, but who is more at risk? We think,CornThe trend is "falling and rising". AlthoughCornThe decline is severe, and local grain depots may be facing difficulties, but the new season is far awayCornThere is still some time to go. And withCornAs the volume of listings increases, supply and demand will changeCornIt is expected to stop falling, and may usher in a phased **. In addition, it is expected that the intensity of increasing reserves will be further increased after the year, so thoughCornThe performance is worrying, but overall there is a bottom. AlthoughSoybeansThe demand is not good, but the support of policies can also provide stability. Over the years, the policy has been rightSoybeansThe level of support is very obvious, and it was mentioned again at an important meeting last yearSoybeans, stating this yearSoybeansremains the focus of attention. So, based on trends in terms of policy, thoughSoybeansThe demand is relatively weak, but with the support of policies, there will be no full-blown collapse. However, I think it's worth worryingWheat。Despite last yearWheatYield was affected by the rains, and in some areas there was a problem of quality differentiation, which will be more pronounced in the later stage. WheatThere are two aspects to the risk: first, demand is weak and difficult to change, and increasing is very likely. Due toCornWheatIt's hard to get into the feed sector again, which means:Wheatwill continue to face competition in the flour sector. The situation in the flour market is difficult to change in the short term, so the weakness in demand is almost impossible to reverse. On the other hand, the new seasonWheatAt present, the growth is good, and the possibility of a good yield is increasing. In addition, internationalWheat** Also tends to be loose, resulting inWheatThe ** gradually increases. Strong and weak in demand, easy to makeWheatCan't stand the pressure. In addition, due to the limited time after the year, the new season is far awayWheatThe time to market is very close. This year's Spring Festival is relatively late, and after the fifteenth day is basically about to enter March, and Hubei and other placesWheatThe harvest will begin in May. That is, to give after the yearWheatThe time left is very limited. Plus the reserves that are currently undergoing a frenzied auctionWheat, which exacerbatedWheatSubsequent risks.
To sum up, for nowCornSoybeanswithWheatare in a state of ***, butCornwithSoybeansThe risks are relatively small. ForCornSay, albeit *** but in the new seasonCornThere is still some time before the harvest, and the increase in reserves is expected to be further enhanced, so it is expected to usher in a phased **. WhileSoybeansAlthough demand is weak, it is unlikely to be a full-blown collapse due to policy support. However,WheatFacing greater risks, mainly due to the continued weakness of demand, and the good growth of new wheat, at the same time, the international ** tends to be loose. 3. Analysis of coping strategies.
ForCorn, you can properly control the storage volume and reduce the inventory risk. At the same time, we can be cautiously optimistic and seize the phased opportunities that may arise. If there is a **, reduce positions in time to avoid the risk of market fluctuations.
ForSoybeansYou can pay attention to policy trends, especially in the policySoybeansThe strength of support. It is possible to add about it appropriatelySoybeansinformation is collected and analyzed to determine the right policy changesSoybeansImpact. In addition, you can sell on dips** or highs when the market is volatile, giving you the flexibility to take advantage of opportunities.
ForWheatdue to the greater risk, it can be appropriately reducedWheatstorage capacity, and do a good job of quality control to avoid quality differentiation problems. You can pay attention to the supply and demand situation of the market, as well as the impact of the international market. If the demand remains weak and continues to strengthen, it can be done cautiously and avoid risks as much as possible.
In short, for the differentAgricultural productsshould be tailored to the specific situation. At the same time, it is necessary to pay close attention to market dynamics, policy changes and other factors, and adjust strategies in a timely manner to reduce risks.