"You are wrapped in a mink in the north, and I am bare in the south. This online language describing the extreme weather in the north and south became the most accurate description of the weather in the north and south of China on February 21 (such as Tuli River -378, Hainan Changjiang 351℃）。
From the 20th to the 21st, the warm and humid airflow strengthened and moved northward, clashing with cold air, forming a wide range of rain and snow. Convection occurred in Hubei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and other places, and thunderstorm warnings were issued in many places.
In the early morning of the 20th, many citizens of Yangzhou went out to work listening to the thunder, and at night, they couldn't sleep in the rumbling thunder.
So, what's going on with this "premature" thunderstorm? This winter, the temperature is up and down, and the performance is "abnormal"? What is the reason behind this?
In any case, the public needs to be reminded that although the strong convective weather has passed, the snowfall and freezing weather are coming! On the 21st, the meteorological department issued an orange warning for road icing, everyone should be cautious when traveling and pay attention to anti-skidding!
Recent weather. Yangzhou Meteorological Observatory issued: orange warning for road ice!
What will the weather look like in the next few days?
The Jiangsu Provincial Meteorological Department predicts that in the next three days, there will be continuous rain and snow in the province, with low temperatures, accompanied by northerly winds of 5 to 7 on land and 8 to 10 on rivers, lakes and reservoirs and coastal seas.
Yangzhou Meteorological Observatory issued an orange warning signal for road ice at 11:16 on February 21: It is expected that from the night of the 21st to the 22nd, some towns (streets) in the city's main urban area, Guangling District, Economic Development Zone, scenic spots, and ecological science and technology new city will have road ice that has an impact on traffic. The public is reminded that there will be a significant snowfall weather process from the 22nd to the 24th, and freezing rain and severe road icing may occur.
Focus Explanation 1: The temperature has fallen to near the "freezing point", why is there lightning and thunder?
Although it is said that the solar term has reached "rain", meteorologically speaking, winter is not over yet. The thunder that should have been dispatched before and after the sting was advanced by a long time. Netizens who listened to the rolling thunder on the morning and evening of the 20th were a little uncalm, and they made various guesses.
So, meteorologically speaking, what is the reason for the thunderstorm weather process in winter?
With the southward movement of the northern cold wave, the northerly areas close to the cold air side, such as the Huanghuai area in the south of North China, have experienced heavy snowfall, blizzard, and local heavy snowfall. In areas close to the warm air side, there are strong convective weather such as short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, or hail. Between heavy snowfall and strong convection, there are areas with cold and warm interlacing and temperature inversions, as well as complex precipitation patterns such as freezing rain or ice particles.
The reason for this widespread rain and snow is that the warm and humid airflow from the north and the cold wave from the south are "confronted". Yangzhou, which is located on the warmer air side, is covered by strong convection. Meteorological data shows that from the 20th to the 21st, the number of lightning strikes across the country was as high as hundreds of thousands. Not only that, heavy rain, ice particles, freezing rain, graupel, and hail "fell wantonly" in various places, and Shanghai even issued the earliest hail warning in history. And this "showdown" ended with a phased victory of cold air.
Wu Haiying, chief forecaster of Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, explained: "Under the influence of strong cold air, the ground temperature has dropped significantly, and in this context, the development of warm and humid airflow in the middle layer, the convergence of cold and warm airflow is violent, and an unstable atmospheric stratification is constructed on top of the cold pad of the boundary layer, resulting in elevated thunderstorms." "The fierce battle between cold and warm air masses and the extremely intense convective activity also mean that the phase of rain and snow will become very complex and frequently converted, resulting in the emergence of various forms of precipitation such as rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Hail was monitored in some areas of the city on the night of the 20th, and most of the hail appeared in the spring and summer transition season when the cold and warm air converged fiercely or in the midsummer when the convection was strong.
In fact, every year when the "rain" season arrives, the tug-of-war between cold and warm air begins. However, for thunderstorms and strong convection to form, some weather conditions are still required. For example, the important reason for the winter rain and thunder this time is that the warm and humid airflow is very strong, and under the fierce collision with the cold wave, not only snow, but also thunderstorms.
The data shows that the maximum temperature in the main urban area of Yangzhou has increased from 22 on the 19th8, down to 3 on the 21st, down 20 in 72 hours.
In addition, due to the unusually strong warm and humid air current, the cold wave front is slower to the south than cycling, and the result of the battle between the "two powers" is that the rainfall patterns are varied, and the thunder and lightning activity and the intensity of rain and snow are very "ferocious".
One will be as warm as spring and the other will be as cold as Sanjiu, why is this winter abnormal?
In recent years, abnormal weather has been frequent, and extreme weather events in winter, such as warming and cooling, hail and thunderstorms, and rain, snow and ice. These extreme weather events have seriously affected agriculture, transportation and people's livelihoods, causing a lot of trouble to people's lives.
Previously, experts from the meteorological department have also made several analyses that since 2023, the sea temperature in the eastern Pacific Ocean has increased, resulting in a moderate El Niño phenomenon. The impact on our country is that the winter in the north will be unusually cold, and there will be a lot of rain in the south. According to the latest monitoring and ** of the National Climate Center, the El Niño event that began in May 2023 has lasted for nearly 9 months, and it is judged that it has reached a peak in December 2023 with moderate intensity, and this El Niño event will continue until the early spring of 2024.
Experts believe that although in the winter of El Niño events, the temperature in most parts of China is close to normal to high (there will be warm winters in some years), the cold air is active in stages, and the temperature fluctuates greatly. On the other hand, in the winter of El Niño, the intensity of the subtropical high in the northwest Pacific is stronger, and the water vapor conditions in the central and eastern parts of China are better, and the precipitation is likely to be more than that of the same period in normal years.
Therefore, the El Niño event is an important climatic background for this widespread rain and snow. And if we were to simply attribute this winter's "abnormal" weather, it would be the combination of global warming and El Niño.
Reporter Chen Jiewen.
Weather forecast for the next three days.
22nd. Cloudy with moderate snow, locally heavy to blizzard, freezing rain or ice particles in some areas, and 2 to 5 cm of snow in the afternoon to night.
Wind. Northerly winds 5 with gusts of 6 to 7 and weakening to 4 to 5.
Temperature. The minimum temperature is -1 to -2, the maximum temperature is 0 to 1, and there is freezing.
23rd. Cloudy with light to moderate snow.
Wind. Northerly winds of 4 to 5 degrees.
Temperature. Minimum temperatures of -1 to -2 with freezing, highs of 2 to 3
24th. Cloudy with light to moderate snow.
Wind. Northerly winds are around level 4.
Temperature. Minimum temperatures are 0 to -1, freezing in some areas, and highs are 1 to 2