**: Fengcai News.
Produced by |fengcaixun
Author |Li Guangjun.
2023 will be a year of economic recovery for Hong Kong, including the resumption of customs clearance with the mainland, the resumption of market consumption, and so on. Hong Kong's economy grew by 3% last year, slightly lower than expected, due to factors such as interest rate hikes in the United States and the global economic downturn. The real estate market also showed a fluctuating trend throughout the year, with a relatively warm transaction volume in the first quarter of last year, benefiting from the release of purchasing power accumulated before, and after the middle of the year, along with the economic trend, the property market trend for the whole year showed a curve of first rising and then falling. Guo Ziwei, chief manager of the sales department of Cheung Kong Group, said in an exclusive interview with Fengcai News that from the comprehensive data of developers and ** institutions, the annual number of first-hand housing transactions in Hong Kong in 2023 will increase compared with 2022, an increase of about 4%. In terms of total transaction value, there was an increase of 15%, mainly due to the transaction of mid-to-high-end projects in the first and second quarters. The overall transaction of second-hand housing has declined slightly, and the average transaction price in 2023 is about **10% compared with 2022.
Looking forward to the Hong Kong property market in 2024, Kwok believes that it still depends on the economic trend. He expects that Hong Kong's economy will maintain normal growth this year, supported by the positive factors of the resumption of customs between Hong Kong and the mainland last year, and the strengthening of economic and trade exchanges with the mainland this year will still provide good support to Hong Kong's economy. On the other hand, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States this year has strengthened, and Hong Kong will follow suit, which is also conducive to the improvement of the real estate market. Compared with last year's fluctuations, Hong Kong's property market is expected to be more stable this year, with an expected fluctuation range of about 2%. Kwok is also optimistic about the performance of Hong Kong's luxury property market this year, and he believes that the luxury property market will get better momentum.
Hong Kong's advantages are still strong, and the talent plan is fully powerful
In recent years, many views have compared the competitiveness and attractiveness of Hong Kong and Singapore from the dimensions of economic growth, financial investment and talent absorption. Hong Kong's position as an international financial centre has unique advantages in its role in China's economy. Compared with Singapore's financial market, which mainly absorbs Southeast Asian funds, Hong Kong is backed by the huge economic hinterland of the motherland and connects with global economic and trade needs, and the scale of funds attracted by Hong Kong is much larger, which can be seen from the comparison of the trading volume. Hong Kong is China's window to the outside world, and its advantages are irreplaceable in other regions. As the global economy moves towards a recovery stage, and with the closer economic ties and people-to-people exchanges between Hong Kong and the Mainland, Hong Kong will be more attractive to mainland investment or talents. For global companies to enter the mainland market, Hong Kong is also a good choice.
Hong Kong Victoria Harbour Cityscape |Source: Visual China.
Now the world is actively absorbing all kinds of talents, Hong Kong has also increased the absorption of high-quality talents, Kwok Ziwei believes that the launch of the Hong Kong Talent Plan, whether from the introduction of high-end talents, or the introduction of middle-end talents, is a good help to Hong Kong's economic development and population outflow after the gap supplement. For example, mainland university graduates who participate in Cathay Pacific's recruitment to work in Hong Kong, as well as recruit mainland students to study in Hong Kong universities and stay in Hong Kong for employment after graduation, have all retained outstanding young talents, which of course depends on the guidance of active policies.
In addition to its advantages as a financial centre, Hong Kong is also vigorously promoting the development of innovation and technology, which will also attract more professionals to develop in Hong Kong. For example, CATL has set up an international headquarters in Hong Kong and a technology innovation and research and development centre, which will bring more outstanding talents from the mainland to settle in Hong Kong. In Kwok Ziwei's view, the talent plan launched by Hong Kong** is comprehensive and targeted. A major premise for competing for talents is to have a good business environment and a good living environment. Having a good market policy, coupled with a good development environment, including the growth of enterprises and the residence of individuals, will better promote Hong Kong's attractiveness to global talents.
Following the economic upturn, the property market will be more stable this year
Hong Kong has always had a small land and a large number of people, and every inch of land is valuable. The demand and trend of Hong Kong's luxury housing market are also relatively stable, such as properties in the Peak District, where there is little market volatility. Guo Ziwei introduced that when the market fell back and the wait-and-see atmosphere was heavy, the luxury homes were less affected and more stable, and when the market recovered to gain better momentum, the performance of luxury homes was also stronger.
Based on years of observation and understanding of the trend and law of Hong Kong's property market, Kwok Ziwei expects that the demand for luxury homes will increase this year, such as the adjustment of real estate policies, and the "spicy" measures will promote market transactions; On the other hand, with the intensification of Hong Kong's global talent competition, attracting more outstanding talents to work and live in Hong Kong will also better promote the transaction of luxury residential properties.
In addition to local buyers, powerful buyers from the Mainland, as well as European and American buyers, are all participants in Hong Kong's luxury property market. In some traditional luxury residential areas, as well as new developments by brand developers, they are highly sought after by such buyers. In addition to the purchase of properties outside of permanent settlement, Hong Kong's luxury housing market also contains a huge rental demand. Kwok believes that as more elite talents come to Hong Kong, it will also drive the vitality of the luxury rental market. "This type of person may not necessarily settle in Hong Kong for a long time, because the working relationship requires living in Hong Kong for a few years, so they will choose to rent a high-quality flat. Driven by the talent plan, I believe that this year's luxury rental will perform better. ”
What is the current role of mainland buyers in Hong Kong's property market transactions? Guo Ziwei introduced to Fengcai News that according to the transaction data of the Cheung Kong project, before the current ** property market control policy was not "withdrawn", there were not many pure mainland buyers with mainland ID cards, and the percentage was only in single digits. More are new immigrants from the mainland to Hong Kong and professionals who have obtained Hong Kong resident identity cards, and this kind of people who have settled in Hong Kong have a certain drive to property transactions, and such buyers account for about a dozen percentages.
Kwok Ziwei said that at this stage, Cheung Kong has also set up a showroom in Guangzhou to introduce the development of Cheung Kong Group in Hong Kong and the projects for sale such as No. 21 Bo Lao Road. For interested customers, further invitations will be arranged to visit Hong Kong to better understand the advantages of the project. Last year, some mainland customers also visited No. 21 Bo Lao Road through this channel, and some buyers finally made a deal, and the unit turnover also exceeded 100 million yuan. Kwok said that with the closer connection between Hong Kong and various cities in the Greater Bay Area and the mainland, Cheung Kong Group will also increase its promotion to the mainland market in the future. "In the future, there will only be more and more communication between Hong Kong and the mainland, rather than going backwards, and we will invest more in this direction. "Kwok is confident in the development momentum of Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area cities in 2024.