The technology and industrial chain are becoming more and more mature, and the penetration of high-power fast charging models is accelerating. The long-term trend of electrification is confirmed, and the penetration rate is expected to continue to increase.
According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in 2023 will be 347%, an increase of 6 year-on-year7pp。As the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, the demand for fast charging is also growing.
At present, the diversified development of automotive energy replenishment technology, and the high-voltage fast charging scheme is more optimistic about the industry. Compared with high-current fast charging, it has the advantages of higher theoretical charging power, less damage to the battery, and a wider range of application by increasing the system voltage.
The third-generation semiconductor and high-rate battery technology is becoming more and more mature, and the 800V high-voltage platform is the mainstream choice to solve range anxiety and slow charging, and the 800V high-voltage ultra-fast charging platform models are accelerating the market, and have now entered the 200,000 ** band, showing the penetration and popularization trend from high-end to low-end models.
According to Marklines data, in 2023, the sales volume of 800V platform models in China (the battery voltage in the statistical range is greater than 570V) will be 3480,000 units, with a penetration rate of 5 in pure electric passenger cars7%。We estimate that the sales volume of 800V platform models in China and the world in 2024 will be 1101.95 million units, respectively, and the CAGR from 2024 to 2026 will be 137% and 140%, respectively.
High-power fast charging promotes the upgrading of components, and is optimistic about the opportunity for high-voltage architecture iteration. Under the high-voltage architecture, we are optimistic about the iteration opportunities of components such as power battery systems, electric drive systems, power supply systems, and thermal management systems. The popularization of 800V high-voltage platform is a system project that not only involves the construction and layout of the fast charging system, but also needs to develop components that adapt to the high-voltage platform.
In high-voltage environments, high-voltage components such as battery packs, electric drive systems, on-board power systems, and high-voltage wiring harnesses need to be re-adapted, and the voltage levels of components and materials used need to be increased to 800V and above, and challenges in safety, thermal management, and cost brought about by higher voltages are also faced.
The high-voltage platform will increase the cost of the whole vehicle, taking the current more mature 2C fast charging, using the 150kW front drive system as an example, the 950V voltage platform will increase the cost by about 6,500 yuan compared with the 450V voltage platform. In the long run, with the reduction of the cost of core components such as SiC and fast-charging batteries, there is also a demand for fast charging for low-end models, and the upgrade of electrical architecture of 800V and above has a long-term trend.
There are currently two directions for the development of supercharging technology, increasing the current or increasing the voltage: charging power = voltage current, so the charging power can be increased by increasing the current or increasing the voltage.
High-current fast charging technology. High-current fast charging technology achieves fast charging by increasing the charging current. At present, the models using 400V architecture + high current are Tesla Model 3, Zeekrypton 001, etc., Tesla is a representative enterprise of high-current DC fast charging scheme. From the first generation of super fast charging to the third generation of super fast charging, the current of Tesla's supercharging pile has increased from 250A to 640A, and the supercharging power has also increased from 100kW to 250kW, leading the industry in charging efficiency.
High-voltage fast charging technology. Due to the large amount of heat generated by a single increase in charging current, the thermal management technology requirements for vehicle wiring harness and power battery system are higher. In the future, high-voltage architectures are expected to be widely adopted in the industry. With the gradual maturity of the high-voltage ** chain, at present, domestic car companies such as Xiaopeng, BYD, VOYAH, and Ideal have entered the 800V vehicle high-voltage platform.
By increasing the voltage platform of the power battery system from 400V to 800V, the high-voltage charging technology can accelerate the charging speed and improve the power performance and mileage of the vehicle, greatly reduce the excessive thickness of the wiring harness in the vehicle caused by high current, which is conducive to the optimization of the space layout in the vehicle and reduces the weight of the vehicle.
Porsche Taycan took the lead in mass production of the 800V voltage platform in pursuit of charging speed and power performance, adopted a complete 800V battery architecture, and upgraded all the high-voltage systems of the vehicle. The realization of the 800V high-voltage scheme will make the charging power exceed 400kW, charge for 5min, and have a range of 200-300km, which will greatly alleviate charging anxiety.
Under the high-voltage architecture, we are optimistic about the iteration opportunities of components such as power battery systems, electric drive systems, power supply systems, and thermal management systems. At this stage, there is still a high technical threshold for the application of 800V voltage platform. In the high-voltage environment, in addition to the technical use of high-voltage SIC third-generation power semiconductors to achieve the compatibility of the electric drive platform, high-voltage components such as battery packs, electric drive systems, on-board power supply systems, and high-voltage wiring harnesses also need to be re-adapted, and the components and materials used, such as connectors, relays, fuses, capacitors, resistors, inductors, etc., need to be increased to 800V and above, and they also have to face challenges in safety, thermal management, and cost brought by higher voltages.
In this 800V fast charging upgrade, what can relay companies get? According to CICC's analysis, the development of fast charging technology will bring upgrades to multiple links at the battery end and charging end, among which the performance requirements of high-voltage DC relays such as withstand voltage, insulation, short-term withstand and arc extinguishing will be greatly improved, and the value of a single relay is expected to increase by about 30%.
A 30% increase in value is quite impressive for any manufacturing field, even if it is not a manufacturing field. Relay enterprises, the next can focus on the field of high-voltage DC relays, in the country and upstream and downstream jointly promoted, I believe that the market prospects of high-voltage DC relays are still broad.
Relay companies still need to pay attention to the new energy vehicle market, going overseas has become the wind direction, relay companies need to do a good job of global certification, with the new energy vehicle companies to go to sea. Of course, in addition to developing the market, it is also very important to do a good job in internalized management.
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