From 2021 to today, from first-tier cities to fourth- and fifth-tier cities, housing prices in each city have suffered varying degrees of decline, even in cities like Shanghai, where new home sales in January this year have fallen off a cliff.
The house can not be sold, for real estate developers, it will not be able to return the funds, the debt problem may be more thorny, of course, the more important problem is that the house as the most important part of China's family assets, the price of housing is actually equivalent to the shrinkage of China's family wealth.
The more powerful the house price**, the more serious the shrinkage of wealth, and the more conservative consumption will be.
Of course, this is only part of the real estate crisis, but not the whole story.
Standing at such a special moment today, the first value of real estate has affected the difficulties of subsequent buyers, and at the same time, with the slowdown in macroeconomic growth and the decline in income growth, these have weakened people's demand for real estate to a certain extent.
In the face of this series of serious and complex problems, there are actually only two ways out for real estate.
The first plan is to buy bad projects in the private real estate market by the state, which of course refers to the unfinished real estate in the real estate development process, and then transform these bad projects into housing, and then rent or control them by the state.
This model is actually very similar to Singapore's "HDB flats", that is, the state provides the supply, and strictly sets the conditions for applying for low-cost housing, so as to truly ensure that low-income groups, or families who cannot afford to buy a house, can live in it, and completely solve the phenomenon of high housing prices backlashing consumption.
This can sustainably build more affordable housing for low-income families.
The purpose of establishing so-called affordable housing is to solve the housing problem of low-income families, which naturally has huge subsidies, and the reason why low-cost housing is called low-cost housing is not because of its low manufacturing cost, but because of high subsidies.
In this regard, it may take years to achieve, starting with the construction of houses and distributing them to low-income families, it will take at least several years, and the cost will certainly be huge, with some analysts saying that if low-cost housing is implemented, the annual cost could be as high as $280 billion for the next five years, totaling about $1$4 trillion.
What are the advantages of cheap housing?
In fact, it solves the problems of today's young people.
Today's young people step into the society, from the beginning of employment, the pressure is very great, the main pressure, in fact, is not marriage and bride price, but the house, so low-rent housing can regain the confidence of the younger generation in the future, so as to maximize their subjective initiative.
However, economist Chen Zhiwu believes that this new housing strategy, which relies on administrative power, cannot sustain the market. Chen Zhiwu said that in view of the demographic challenges and surplus problems faced by the country, the use of administrative funds to buy non-performing real estate will not have any effect.
And administrative interference can also raise troubling issues of equity.
In fact, the key to this problem is how to ensure that these houses are actually handed over to low-income families in need, which is the most critical part of the whole process.
If power rent-seeking cannot be generated in this link, it is necessary to do a good job of publicity and related transparency to achieve a better expected value.
The second plan is actually to return real estate to the market and to supply itself.
This step cannot be released in one step, but slowly in order to allow the real estate market to land soft, not hard.
Over the years, we have carried out a variety of regulation and control of the real estate market, but the results are not very good.
This year, the property market in various places has been loosened one after another, but has the house risen? Not only did it not rise, but it was still **.
Therefore, real estate regulation may not really be able to suppress housing prices**; Conversely, the relaxation of the property market may not be able to really stimulate the demand for buying houses.
Therefore, we still need to return real estate to the market, to the supply itself, rather than continuing to intervene too much.
But this must require a process, we must at least use a "warm boiled frog" feeling, take the initiative to squeeze the bubble in the housing price, but to squeeze a little bit, not too much at once, which can easily cause panic in the market.
What we need to do is to slow down the process of de-bubble housing prices, step by step, extend the time period, and reduce the negative effect on the macro economy as much as possible.
At present, the contradiction of China's economic growth is that on the one hand, a large amount of family wealth is composed of real estate, so housing prices will shrink family wealth, which will affect consumption.
Therefore, today there is a first-class war in many industries, and even overcapacity.
However, we can't let the house price continue to be ** because of this, otherwise the problem will be greater in the future, and what needs to be done at this time is to let the real estate dam release water step by step, a little bit of water, and not too much at one time, which will affect the crops (consumption) downstream.
Although this process is slow, we assume that the annual housing price is **10% on the original basis, about five or ten years, then the real estate bubble will actually be squeezed out a lot.
It is a good way to use China's annual macroeconomic growth rate to hedge the negative impact of real estate initiative to bubble.
However, if it is not well controlled, it is very likely to fall into a hard landing similar to Japan's real estate in the 90s, almost overnight, housing prices ** 50%, directly cut in half, many families' wealth shrinks, and bank loans have to be repaid, the impact on the macro economy at this time, and people's optimistic expectations for the future, it is almost devastating.
It took 30 years for Japan to come out, and we naturally can't follow the old path of Japan, so real estate must have a soft landing, and it can only be a soft landing, which is the best choice.
At least some of the core areas of the city are still restricted from purchase, and there is also a limited fall order, which should also be canceled, so that the pricing of housing prices will be handed over to the market and the developers themselves, rather than the administrative guidance range.
As of today, most cities in China have lifted purchase restrictions and canceled various restrictions, and the property market has ushered in the least restrictive year in recent decades.
In the future, we may gradually give more relaxation, so that the property market has more market space for independent regulation, and in this process, the number of listings in the second-hand housing market may further increase, but this is a very normal behavior.
What we need to do is for more people to understand that housing prices will also fall, housing prices are also commodities, commodities, and its ** is determined by the market, by supply and demand, not others.
When this concept is deeply rooted, the soft landing of real estate is basically formed.
The next task is to find new growth points, rather than being supported by the real estate industry.
Since the introduction of the market economy, the accumulation of a large amount of private wealth, due to the lack of good investment channels in the country, so a large amount of private wealth has nowhere to go, can only buy a house, coupled with the demographic dividend and urbanization, these three points have raised the real estate market.
Today, as the real estate market gradually returns to the right track, the new growth point is in the first place, which is not only a test of the macroeconomy, but also a test of local income.
Will consumption be particularly good in the future?
As mentioned earlier, the quality of real estate is directly related to the level of family wealth, so in the downward cycle of real estate income, consumption will not be particularly good, at least compared with the growth rate in the past, it will definitely slow down.
Therefore, it is unlikely that we will put the growth point in the consumption basket.
Foreign trade is actually a good choice.
As the risk of overcapacity in our country intensifies, it is a good way to let goods go out again, so many people should see the change in our foreign relations strategy, in fact, it is to go outward.
At the same time, we will continue to internationalize to attract foreign investment, leverage greater leverage, and create more jobs.
In addition to being linked to wealth, consumption is of course also linked to employment, and the more jobs there are, the faster wages will grow, and the more people will dare to spend in theory.
In addition to some visible pressures, there are also invisible factors such as whether it is easy to find a job, whether the salary is stable, and whether there is room for future income growth, etc., which will affect people's consumption expenditure.
On the whole, when real estate is gradually becoming a thing of the past, the transformation of our economic institutions may have just begun, and new consumption, new foreign trade and new investment will inevitably become the new focus.
And in the process, the transition is bound to be accompanied by pain and discomfort, but there is nothing else we can do.
Only by truly integrating into the world, the market, and the people's livelihood can our economy achieve truly sustainable and healthy growth.
end.Author: Luo sir, the workplace reference of the new youth. Concerned about the logic behind the development of things, optimistic pessimists. Follow me and grind the knowledge to you.
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