On January 31, the treasury bond market was wide in early trading**, as of 10:30 a.m., Pengyang 30-year treasury bond ETF (511090)**072%。In the bond market, the latest price of the 30-year Treasury ** contract (TL2403) is 10533 yuan, up 072%, the volume was 7,967 lots, and the total open interest was 43,371 lots. The rest of the Treasury ** contract 10-year Treasury bond (T2403) rose 008%；The 5-year Treasury note (TF2403) fell 005%；The 2-year Treasury bond (TS2403) fell 005%。(Data**: China Financial Exchange).
1.Funding side
The central bank launched a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 544 billion yuan today, and the winning interest rate was 180%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 463 billion yuan of reverse repurchase today, the open market achieved a net investment of 81 billion yuan. The yield on the main interbank interest rate bonds fell sharply before 8 p.m. on January 30, with the 5-year Treasury active bond 230012 falling by 25bp；The 10-year Treasury active bond 230026 down 33bp。(Data**: wind, Oriental Jincheng).
2.Domestic market information
After the opening of the market on January 31, medium and long-term treasury bonds** continued to rise, of which the 30-year treasury bond** contract (TL2403) was reported at 10533 yuan, up 072%；The 10-year Treasury ** contract (T2403) was at 103555, up 008%, all of which hit a new high. Why the bond market continues to be bullish, many market participants said that the expectation of interest rate cuts after the RRR cut still exists, and driven by multiple factors, medium and long-term treasury bonds have hit a new high.
Among them, Liu Yu, chief fixed income analyst of GF**, said that the RRR and interest rate cuts can effectively reduce the financing cost of the real economy, and the weighted statutory reserve ratio of banks is 7% after the RRR cut on February 5, and there is still room for the reserve ratio to be reduced; In addition, the possibility of a countercyclical cut in the MLF rate remains.
Zhang Jiqiang, chief fixed income analyst of Huatai, believes that it is currently in a cycle of interest rate cuts, and it is only a matter of time when to cut interest rates. The RRR cut and structural rate cut may indicate that the time point for a comprehensive interest rate cut is approaching.
In addition, Yan Ziqi, chief fixed income analyst of Huaan, believes that the allocation of power is expected to continue to flow into the bond market. Since late December 2023, insurance, ** and rural commercial banks have successively participated in the rush**; Since the beginning of 2024, non-bank institutions have generally increased their allocation to the bond market, and the banking system, dominated by large banks, has also increased their positions significantly. Judging from the market situation in January, treasury bond investors continued to maintain their allocation preference for long-term varieties.
3.Overseas market information
Last night, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that the number of job openings in the United States recorded 902 in December60,000, higher than the market expectation of 8.75 million, unexpectedly rose to the highest level in three months. After the release of the data, the market is pricing in a 40% chance of a rate cut in March. For now, manageable inflation and a stable job market make interest rate cuts less urgent and potentially magnitative.
In the context of the economy in the early stage of recovery and the relatively loose monetary policy, China's ultra-long-term bond market, dominated by 30-year treasury bonds, has developed rapidly, and the listing of 30-year treasury bonds** has filled the risk management tool for institutions to invest in ultra-long-term bonds, and activated the trading volume of 30-year treasury bonds. Pengyang 30-Year Treasury Bond ETF (511090) is the only ETF in the market that tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Bond Index, with T+0 trading attributes, which can not only enable investors to buy low and sell high to gain income during the day, but also help investors quickly extend the portfolio duration or use it as a hedging equity**. The product can be used as a highly flexible cash management tool and portfolio duration adjustment tool for customers, with strong trading attributes in the short term when market interest rate fluctuations are amplified, and strong allocation attributes in the long term in the context of low interest rates, which is worthy of active attention from investors.
Risk Warning: The information listed here is for communication purposes only and is for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice for any **.