People work hard and accumulate wealth, but as their wealth grows, they start to worry about the risk of currency depreciation. Especially those who have a lot of money and want to protect themselves from inflation by investing. However, investing is like walking a tightrope, and risks always come with it. In the world of investing, risk is an unavoidable topic because investment itself comes with risk. For those who just want to hedge against inflation by investing, the huge risks can be too much for them to bear.
In addition, many investment channels have a high barrier to entry and require investors to have a wealth of expertise. Blindly investing may not only fail to bring returns, but may even lose the principal. As a result, finding the right investment channel is especially difficult for most people. Over the past two decades, houses have become the only investment option for many ordinary people due to the persistence of house prices**.
Over the past two decades, the boom in the property market has indeed created a brilliant bull market. In the impression of many people, housing prices are like a never-ending ** train. Stories of buying a home to get rich are all around us, and some people have achieved financial freedom just by investing in real estate. Therefore, the house has become an irreplaceable store of value in the eyes of the public, which can not only increase the value of assets, but also rent out for profit.
However, in the past two or three years, the real estate industry has undergone earth-shaking changes, and the most obvious phenomenon is that house prices have begun to enter the trend. This has undoubtedly brought a lot of impact to many investors. According to authoritative statistics, September 2021 has become an important turning point, since then the average house price has changed from rising to falling. The average house price in China fell from a high of 11,303 yuan square meters in 2021 to about 9,600 yuan square meters by the end of 2023. It can be seen that the decline in average house prices in the past two years has been quite obvious, and in some areas and real estate, the magnitude of house prices is even more amazing.
Since 2023, there has been a lot of talk about a possible strong house price**. The strong impetus behind this stems from the state's assistance to the real estate market again, and a series of property market stimulus policies have been launched in various places. These policies, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions, the reduction of mortgage interest rates, the reduction of down payment ratios, the increase of provident fund limits and the issuance of housing purchase subsidies, demonstrate the country's determination to stabilize the property market.
Entering the beginning of 2024, the rescue measures in various places continue to escalate, further strengthening the belief that many people's housing prices are about to become the best. They see this as a revalidation of historical experience.
Looking back on the past 20 years, China's real estate industry has been in trouble many times, such as in 2008 and 2014, the property market is facing challenges such as housing prices, inventory backlogs, and high debt ratios of real estate enterprises. In those two predicaments, the state introduced property market support policies in a timely manner, and the property market quickly came out of the trough, and housing prices also quickly reached a new high. As a result, many observers and analysts believe that history is always strikingly similar, and the current situation could also signal a wave of house prices
The historical experience of the past has once again stimulated people's longing for housing prices**. Looking at the past year or so, the best at all levels have taken an active role in the regulation and control of the property market and injected strong vitality. Especially in the second half of 2023, with the help of policies, the property market has begun to show signs of recovery, and the transaction volume of commercial housing has rebounded significantly. This undoubtedly paints an attractive picture of property investment for investors.
However, digging deeper, we found some thought-provoking phenomena. Despite the volume of transactions, house prices have not followed its pace, the property market inventory is still high, and the number of second-hand housing inventory continues to set new records. This shows that the current recovery in the property market is more due to the increase in transaction volume, while housing prices have not really recovered, and speculators have begun to sell their properties instead. This is in stark contrast to the trend of housing prices when the property market picked up in the past.
Therefore, whether you should invest in property or not is still an open question. Faced with the choice of buying a house or saving money, we cannot give a clear answer for the time being. Opinions on the future trend of housing prices are diverse. Someone ** house prices will continue **, based on factors such as commodities**, labor costs and construction costs**. Others believe that the current housing price bubble is serious, and they are more concerned about how much housing prices will return to a reasonable level.
So in the next few years, will house prices ** or **? At present, it seems that both are possible and have the corresponding conditions. In order to unveil the answer, we need to deeply analyze the real situation and internal logic of the current property market. Only in this way can we see the real trend of the property market.
First, the supply of housing resources exceeds demand
For a long time, we have been told that our country has adequate housing resources. But the truth is not so simple. In fact, while the total amount seems to be sufficient, the housing resources flowing in the market are relatively scarce. The reason is that a large number of ** are controlled by a small number of investors and have not been effectively released into the market, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand in the market and high housing prices.
Nowadays, the real situation of the property market is gradually emerging. The inventory of the new housing market is overstocked, the second-hand housing market is flooding, and the market has quietly turned to buyer-led. This change has provided more options for home buyers, but it has also brought unprecedented challenges to property sales.
Second, the era of real estate investment is gradually moving away
Once upon a time, property investment was seen as a surefire deal. However, time has passed, and today's real estate market is no longer the investment paradise it once was. The rate of housing prices has slowed down significantly, and in some cities it has even appeared. Investors are becoming wary that the benefits and risks of property investment are changing.
In addition to explicit costs such as property fees and taxes, holding real estate also involves hidden costs such as capital costs and depreciation. During the housing price period, these costs may be overlooked by investors. But when house prices stagnate or **, these costs become a heavy burden.
With the gradual implementation of policies such as property tax and rental tax, the pressure on real estate investors will further increase. Against this backdrop, new investors are hesitant and many old investors are looking to exit, and the enthusiasm for investment in the real estate market is fading.
But that doesn't mean the end of the real estate market. Instead, it could be the beginning of a new era in property investment. In this new era, investors will pay more attention to the quality and liquidity of assets, rather than simply chasing high returns. Properties that truly have long-term value and development potential will become the new favorites of investors.
Clause.
Third, there seems to be a demand for housing purchases, but the structural surplus of houses is becoming more and more obvious.
At present, China's property market is currently presenting a unique two-sided scene: on the one hand, many families are still looking for an ideal residence, and the demand for housing is still strong; On the other hand, there seems to be a surplus of housing** on the market, and vacant homes are increasing. However, a trend that cannot be ignored is that the demand for housing is waning over time, while housing** continues to grow.
According to authoritative statistics, there are more than 96 urban households in China86% already own their own home, and the average household owns more than 2 homes. This means that housing is no longer the primary concern for most families. At the same time, however, the phenomenon of housing surplus is becoming more and more prominent, with a large number of houses left unattended, quietly waiting for the call of the market. As housing prices gradually stabilize, these excess housing resources will undoubtedly have an impact on the market supply and demand, which in turn will put pressure on housing prices.
In addition, the continuous decline in China's fertility rate is also quietly changing the pattern of the real estate industry. Over time, the demand for housing in the future will decrease substantially. Especially when the post-00s generation gradually becomes the main force of home purchases, the demand in the real estate market will decline significantly. The data shows that compared with the post-80s and post-90s, the number of post-00s and post-10s has decreased by 10.3 billion, and most of the post-00s and post-10s are only children, and their families often already have enough housing. As a result, the demand for housing among young people in the future will become relatively relaxed.
From the above three points, it is obvious that it is difficult for housing prices to replicate the unilateral trend of the past. Although the existing policies support the property market, the purpose is only to stabilize its development trend. If you want to make a large price **, it is actually very difficult. There has been a strong response from all walks of life. Many people feel the steadiness of holding cash in their hands after nearly two years of housing prices**, and even feel that it is more reliable than reinforced concrete. So, has cash really become the current "hard currency"? A senior commercial bank president put forward his opinion:Some of us may have misunderstood the concept of money, thinking that the currency is increasing, so we have been looking for anti-inflation targets, and only by investing money can we feel at ease. But in fact, investing in this thing, "nine out of ten losses", not to mention making money, most of the principal may be lost.
Clearly, cash still plays an important role in the modern economy. Fighting inflationary pressures is a daunting task for most people. In the past, many people saw real estate as the most robust investment product to hedge against inflation. Today, however, this notion needs to be revisited.
Although a house is a symbol of wealth, it can only be converted into liquid capital to truly reflect its value. Otherwise, it is only a book number, and it is difficult to play a role at a critical moment. As for the real estate trend in 2023, I think most properties have lost their investment attractiveness. It may be wiser for the average household to keep their money in the bank and keep cash reserves.
When real estate is no longer "hard currency", solid cash reserves bring a sense of security. This strategy allows us to be more calm and confident in the face of economic fluctuations. What do you think about this view?