Recently, Liang Jianzhang, a domestic economic demographer and chairman of Ctrip, said in an interview that China is currently experiencing a serious aging population. Seniors who are now getting a good pension can get a good pension, but it's certainly not sustainable. Thirty years from now, the old man will either have his pension halved or delay his retirement until he is seventy or eighty years old. This point of view has aroused widespread attention and discussion from all walks of life.
Liang Jianzhang's views are not groundless, but based on a profound analysis of the situation of the Chinese population. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's total population in 2020 was 141.8 billion, an increase of 5.4 million over the end of the previous year, with a growth rate of 038%, a new low in nearly 60 years. At the same time, China's population structure has also seen a significant aging, with the proportion of people aged 60 and over reaching 187%, while the proportion of the population under the age of 15 is only 1795%。This means that China's demographic dividend is gradually disappearing, and the labor supply will face severe challenges.
An ageing population will not only affect economic growth, but will also put enormous pressure on the social security system. According to the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the number of people insured by pension insurance in China in 2020 was 9900 million, of which 4 are active employees200 million, 2 for retirees500 million. That is, the pension of every retiree needs to be made up of 168 employees to pay. This ratio is already below the internationally recognized safety line of 3:1 and will continue to decline as the population ages. If effective measures are not taken, the payment of pensions will face serious difficulties.
So, how to meet the challenges of an aging population? Liang Jianzhang believes that the implementation of gradual delayed retirement is a necessary reform. He pointed out that delaying retirement can increase the supply of labor, improve the vitality of social innovation, alleviate the pension gap, and promote the full use of human resources. He suggested that, in accordance with the principles of small step adjustment, flexible implementation, classified advancement, and overall consideration, the statutory retirement age should be gradually raised to 65 years old, or even higher. If such a plan is followed, the retirement time of the post-90s generation may be delayed until the age of seventy or eighty.
Liang's suggestion was also supported by some experts. Jin Weigang, president of the Chinese Academy of Labor and Social Security of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, said that delaying retirement is a systematic project that needs to be coordinated with relevant supporting policies and safeguard measures. He believes that delaying retirement will not be done in one step, but will be gradual, delayed by a few months each year or by one month every few months. At the same time, delayed retirement will not be a one-size-fits-all approach, but should reflect a certain degree of flexibility and increase the space for individuals to choose early retirement. In addition, delayed retirement should also distinguish different groups, adopt an appropriate pace, advance steadily, and gradually put it in place.
However, the reform of delayed retirement also faces some difficulties and resistance. On the one hand, delayed retirement will affect the employment opportunities of young people and intensify competition for jobs. On the other hand, delaying retirement will also increase the work pressure of working employees and reduce the quality of life. Therefore, the reform of delayed retirement needs to fully listen to the opinions and suggestions of all parties, comprehensively consider various factors, formulate a reasonable plan, do a good job in publicity and explanation, and strive for the understanding and support of the society.
In conclusion, delaying retirement is a major social reform that involves the vital interests of thousands of households. We should look at this reform rationally from the perspective of the state and society, and we should not only see its necessity and rationality, but also pay attention to its feasibility and fairness. Only in this way can we jointly meet the challenges of population ageing and achieve social harmony and development.
Retirement after the 90s may be delayed until the age of seventy or eighty