Look at the quantitative indicators and lead the peak with wisdom.
Today, coal soared, and the intraday limit was once limited, and now the main contract is up by 762%。Today's ** has the characteristics of being fast and caught off guard. Many people don't know why the bearish trend at the good end has turned into a skyrocket. Let's take a look!
Event-driven
This kind of ** is considered to be abnormal **, and abnormal movement is not a normal situation, it is basically caused by sudden accidents or sudden policies.
Today's "Notice on Carrying out the Special Rectification of Coal Mine "Three Supers" and Concealed Working Faces was issued, and some group coal mines in Shanxi immediately issued production reduction requirements, and it was reported that Lu'an Group and Shanmei International have corresponding production reduction plans, including Lu'an Group to reduce production by 17 million tons, and Shanmei International to reduce production by 8 million tons, but there is no official document within the group. The notice of production reduction is the direct cause of the soaring price of coal, what to do now, do we chase the rise?
The technical side of coking coal
Today's coking coal trading volume exploded, and the open interest also increased to a certain extent, but the increase was not obvious.
From the point of view, the coking coal cycle is still a bearish trend, originally ** is under the resonance band inflection point indicator, today a long white line, directly hit the upper edge of the descending channel, but did not break through the descending channel. Friends who do the trend know that the general trend is not broken, and trading against the trend is more risky, and novices should also know this.
The capital side of coking coal
There are more spot dealers doing hedging in coal**, so it is difficult to have the funds to pull it crazy. You think it's a game of money with others, but it's possible for someone else to actually take out a large amount of coal to deliver to you. Moreover, coal is a social resource, and the state will not allow it to rise too high and affect people's livelihood. I think the thermal coal incident in the past few years is especially fresh in the memory of old traders.
The largest net long in coking coal ** is Yong'an**, followed by Haitong and Hengli, and the positions are not much, and Yongan only has 6199 net long orders. Yongan started to go long in September last year and experienced a roller coaster**.
The net shorts of coking coal ** are Zheshang, Zhongtai and Guangfa **, etc., which suddenly skyrocketed today, and their brains should be buzzing.
On the capital side, the long and short forces of coking coal are evenly matched, and Hengli and Baocheng on the long seats are often haunted by large households, so let's see if these two seats will increase their positions in the near future. The rest is not much to see.
The fundamentals of coking coal
Both coking coal and coke are used to make steel, and the demand for coking coal increased during the years when steel production continued to increase. However, now, in the period of steel recession, the demand for coking coal and coke is also very weak. The production capacity of the major mines is very large, and when the demand is small, they are all rolling **, exchanging volume for profit.
When the war is too intense, many small factories will be at risk of bankruptcy. In this case, the management department will introduce some environmental protection, safety and other related policies, so that everyone can reduce production a little, although everyone will not have enough to eat, but no one will starve to death.
At present, coking coal basically belongs to the stage of large and weak demand. The "Notice" issued today by Shanxi, a major coal mining province, is for everyone to reduce production in order to maintain market stability.
On the other hand, judging from the weak performance of rebar and glass, Shanxi's notice is a symptom but not a root cause, and it is fundamentally a demand problem. Reducing production is not a long-term solution for enterprises, after all, I have 10 machines and 300 employees, and you now let me drive 7 machines, so what should I do with my extra employees?
At present, coking coal is 1748 yuan, the center of the past 3 years is about 1500, and the low point is about 1200. In terms of policy, it can be regarded as taking precautions and playing a little bit in advance.
To sum up, today's coking coal rose sharply, hitting the upper edge of the downward channel pressure, if the channel is broken tomorrow, technically you can follow up long. Fundamentally, it is a pattern of weak demand and strong demand, and today it is mainly affected by policy.