At the beginning of the Spring and Autumn Period, there were still more than 200 princes of all sizes in the world. However, by the beginning of the Warring States period, the number of princes had dropped sharply to more than twenty, and there were only seven major states.
It can be seen that if this trend is followed, integration will definitely be inevitable.
But in what way will the world complete integration? Is it the gradual integration of countries? Or was it forcibly imposed by the Qin state with hegemony?
Around this problem, the princes came up with two schemes: vertical and horizontal.
"Together", that is, "uniting the weak to attack the strong". It is a large number of weak countries that unite to resist a strong country in order to prevent it from being annexed by a strong country.
"Lianheng", that is, "one thing is strong to attack the weak". It is to lead a group of weak countries led by the strong countries to jointly attack other weak countries, so as to divide the land and land.
Those who proposed "cooperation and longitudinal" were Qi, Wei, Zhao and other countries; The one who proposed "Lian Heng" was naturally the Qin State.
In the end, everyone knows that Lian Heng succeeded, the Qin State unified the world, and the Hezong countries were all enslaved by the Qin State. But 14 years later, the princes could not bear it anymore, and the Qin Dynasty collapsed.
This makes people puzzled: since everyone knows that the alliance is to protect their respective rights and interests, to avoid the tragic end of being enslaved. So why are many countries confused and driven by Lianheng and lose cleanly in the end?
Why did Hezong lose to Lianheng? Won't cooperative integration succeed? What is the underlying logic behind it?
Vertical and horizontal. It was a success at first.
When everyone can't kill each other, then it is good to maintain a delicate equilibrium between each other's well water and river water. It's a human choice.
At first, the effect of checks and balances was good, but the later it became, the more it became a kind of internal friction that harmed others and benefited oneself. A typical case is the siege of Wei to save Zhao and the siege of Wei to save Han.
1. Want to save Zhao? Wait until Handan City is broken
The first of the Seven Heroes of the Warring States period to emerge was the Wei State.
Wei's ambitions were enormous, and his goal was to annex Han and Zhao. If Wei annexed Han Wei and occupied the core of the Central Plains, it might be able to regain the strength of the Jin State. In this way, the originally balanced international pattern will be completely broken.
So Qi and other countries took action.
In 354 BC, the state of Zhao attacked the state of Wei. This was a minor dispute between the two countries. However, Wei took advantage of this excuse to escalate the war.
Wei Guo is a servant state of Wei, and without saying a word, Wei sent the general Pang Juan to lead his troops to battle, and together with Wei and Song, the two ** teams went to Zhao to kill.
This time, Wei was ruthless and surrounded Handan, the capital of Zhao State, and had to break through. Zhao Guo hurriedly asked for help from Qi and Chu.
King Qi Wei asked the ministers if they wanted to save Zhao. Xiangguo Zou Ji thinks that there is no need to save it. The doctor Duan Ganpeng suggested saving Zhao, but the salvation should be beneficial to the country. Because Wei captured Handan, Wei's strength would be stronger, and it would pose a threat to Qi. And to save Zhao, it is better to directly attack Wei itself, and the Wei country is an important town of Xiangling. In this way, even if Handan is defeated, it can take advantage of the exhaustion of the Wei army to make a big profit, and at the same time weaken the Zhao state.
Qi Guo wants to play a drama of "snipe and clam competing for fisherman's profit".
Chu Guo's reaction was not much better. Chu State ordered Yin Zhao to Xi Xi's suggestion that Zhao and Wei should fight, and it was best to lose both. And the Great Sima Jingshe believed that if Zhao was not saved, then Zhao would surrender to Wei and cede a large amount of land to Wei. The more powerful Wei State will bring the Zhao State to attack the Chu State. Therefore, it is recommended to send a small number of soldiers and horses to simply help Zhao.
It wasn't until the following year, after Handan was captured by Wei, that Qi sent Tian Ji and Sun Bin to fight without hurry. At Sun Bin's suggestion, Tian Ji launched an attack on Pingling, an important town of Wei, to attract the main force of the Wei army, and then sent lightly armed chariots to smash the outskirts of Daliang, the capital of Wei, to force Pang Juan to return for reinforcements. The main force of the Qi army set up an ambush in Guiling, crushed the Wei army in one fell swoop, and captured Pang Juan.
The Chu army also took advantage of the emptiness in the rear of Wei and captured the Sui land of Wei under the leadership of the general Jing She. The Qin State even fished in troubled waters to carry out sneak attacks and recovered the land west of the river.
Siege Wei to save Zhao. 2. Save South Korea? Wait for the South Korean army to lose five games first
Although Wei's attack on Zhao failed, he still did not give up the idea of hegemony. In 344 BC, King Hui of Wei proclaimed himself king and invited the Han, Song, Wei, and Lu alliances to claim hegemony. South Korea thought that the Marquis of Wei had broken the rules and did not show up. So in 342 BC, the Wei state attacked Korea.
Regarding Korea's request for help, King Qi Xuan once again discussed with the ministers. Xiangguo Zou Ji still thinks that there is no need to save it. And Tian Ji insisted that only by saving Han could he protect Qi from the threat. The King of Qi finally decided to send troops, but waited until the Han army was defeated by the Wei army five times before making a move. The Battle of Maling began.
In the battle of Maling, the 100,000 troops of Wei were exhausted, the general Pang Juan was defeated and committed suicide, and the prince of Wei, Shen, was captured. Wei was greatly damaged by this and finally gave up its hegemony.
And the Qin State took the opportunity to sneak attack again.
In 340 BC, Qin and Qi and Zhao jointly attacked Wei, defeated the Wei army, and captured Wei's son. In 338 BC, the Qin State attacked the shore gate of the Wei State and captured the Wei general Wei Cuo.
Looking at Qin's approach, is it like the isolationist approach pursued by Eagle Sauce in the early days of World War I and World War II? Eagle Sauce first maintained neutrality, making a lot of money by exporting war materials to the participating countries, and then absorbed a wave of capital transferred from various countries. Wait until both warring sides are defeated, and then the United States enters the war and reaps the fruits of victory. So after the two big battles, Eagle Sauce took off directly.
Looking back, we can also see from the two warsThe shortcomings of the longitudinal group:
1. Lack of common interest driven
The motivation to engage countries in the Coalition is to eliminate long-term threats at the lowest cost. This form of cooperation lacks incentives and leads to little interest in participation.
So whether it is Qi Xiang or Chu Lingyin's first reaction, it is often not to participate.
2. It is easy to become a plate of loose sand
Everyone participates in the joint vertical and horizontal mainly from their own interests, and does not give much consideration to the public interest.
So it seems that everyone is trying their best not to suffer losses in the short-term interests, but in fact, they have suffered big losses in the long-term interests.
Although Zhao and Han were rescued and Wei was suppressed, the three kingdoms were greatly weakened and a weak balance was maintained.
After becoming weakened, the Three Kingdoms became the prey in the eyes of the Qin State. After that, the Qin State united with Qi Chu and other powerful countries to invade and plunder Han, Zhao and Wei, and began to implement the strategy of weakening the six countries step by step.
Su Qin hung the seal of the six countries.
The state of Qin was like some kind of system bug, which made the balance of power fall apart.
What is puzzling is that not only did the countries not restrain the Qin State, but instead showed favor to the Qin State one after another. Su Xun pointed out in "The Theory of the Six Kingdoms":"The Six Kingdoms are shattered, the non-soldiers are disadvantageous, the war is not good, and the disadvantage is to bribe Qin. ”
That is to say, not only did the Six Kingdoms not resist, but they also chose to follow the Qin State one after another, waiting for the Qin State to become strong, and then swallowing themselves one by one.
Why would the princes behave in such a way that is contrary to human nature? Obviously, the problem is in the interests.
The cost of fighting Qin is extremely high, and there is no effect in a few years. And even Heng can immediately realize short-term benefits.
The succession of the Qin State is a process of constantly distributing spoils. In this regard, how could the princes not rush to it?
In the first stage, the united powers share the spoils
At the beginning, the strength of the Qin State did not have an overwhelming advantage, how could it achieve expansion? The Qin State chose to pull the two powerful countries of Qi and Chu together to make a fortune in the Central Plains.
Qin's actions were too great, and the princes of the Central Plains rebelled one after another. In 325 B.C., the five kingdoms of Wei, Han, Zhao, Yan, and Zhongshan formed a joint alliance.
But these countries have been weakened once before, how can they withstand the offensive of the three giants of Qi, Chu, and Qin?
As a result, the state of Qi invaded the state of Zhongshan, and the state of Chu captured eight cities of the state of Wei. The Qin state defeated the combined forces of Wei and Han and obtained important places such as Quwo and Pingzhou. Under the threat of Qin, Wei and Han also participated in Lianheng.
This wave of Qin can make a lot of money: not only has it obtained strategic places, but it also likes to mention two younger brothers.
It seems that Qi Chu has made a profit on his own. But compared with the harvest of the Qin State, they are only equivalent to getting a fraction of the money and marrying others.
Qi Chu also lost more: they did not hesitate to damage public order for a small profit. The two countries and Han, Zhao and Wei were at odds with each other and fell into diplomatic passivity.
Since then, the equilibrium situation of the Central Plains has been broken, and the Qin State is proud of the Central Plains.
Diagram of the situation of vertical and horizontal integration.
In the second stage, diplomacy disintegrates Qi and Chu
When the Qin State becomes stronger, it will be difficult to check and balance.
In 319 BC, the five kingdoms of Chu, Yan, Han, Zhao, and Wei again organized a joint attack on Qin, and King Huai of Chu served as the commander of the joint column. This operation once again exposed the shortcomings of Hezhong: Chu and Yan wanted to make a profit, so they let Han, Zhao and Wei send it first.
As a result, the Qin army broke the combined forces of Han, Zhao, and Wei. Chu Yan and the two countries were frightened and directly returned home with their own troops.
The growing threat from Qin forced the two states of Qi and Chu to form an alliance and take on the role of the main force of the alliance.
Qin's outstanding diplomatic talents found the right opportunity to play.
In 313 BC, Zhang Yi made a good promise to Chu: as long as Chu and Qi broke off diplomatic relations, Qin would cede 600 li of land to Chu.
The king of Chu, who was stunned, was not worried about the isolation of the Chu State, and directly broke off diplomatic relations with the Qi State. But then the cunning Zhang Yi told the king of Chu that he could only give him six miles of land.
In 312 BC, King Huai of Chu sent troops to seek justice from Qin, but was defeated by the Qin army in Danyang and Lantian, and lost Hanzhong.
At the same time, he offended Qi and Qin, and attacked Han Zhao Wei before. As a result, the state of Chu became the object of fire gathering by various countries. Qin continued to fight back and captured Wu County and Qianzhong County of Chu State; The state of Qi united with Han Zhao Wei to attack the state of Chu and defeated the state of Chu.
Since then, the state of Chu has been in a slump and can no longer compete with the state of Qin.
Zhang Yi flickered King Chu Huai into a cripple.
In the third stage, he killed Yang and plotted to defeat the Qi State
In 298 BC, Qi joined forces with Han and Wei to attack Qin. It took three years for the coalition forces to finally break through the Hangu Pass, forcing the Qin state to admit defeat and sue for peace, and return Wu Sui to Korea and Fengling to Wei.
This made Qin Guo think about how to deal with Qi State, the final opponent.
The state of Qin adopted a murderous plan: the king of Qin proposed to be called the "Western Emperor" and the "Eastern Emperor" together with the king of Qi. King Qi accepted.
King Qi, who was full of self-confidence, began to expand aggressively, really trying to dominate one side. In 286 B.C., the State of Qi destroyed the Song State, and there was a great opportunity to "force the three Jin Dynasty twice, annex the Zhou family, and have the potential to replace the Son of Heaven".
In this case, the Qin State united the four kingdoms of Zhao, Wei, Han, and Yan to come to a "Five Kingdoms Attack Qi", and finally the King of Qi was defeated and died, and the Qi State was almost divided by various countries. Fortunately, Tian Dan returned to the country, but the Qi State was also greatly damaged and no longer participated in the Central Plains disputes.
After that, it was no longer possible for the other six countries to effectively organize a joint confluence against the Qin state.
Le Yi almost let Qi destroy the country.
Hezong has repeatedly failed to Lianheng because of the three major strategies of the Qin State:
1. Boil the frog in warm water. The Qin State is good at attacking secretly, unlike Wei and Qi who want to destroy the country at every turn when they rise, but bullying the countries of the Central Plains in turn.
This kind of encroachment strategy will not hurt the fundamentals, so it will not provoke too fierce confrontation.
2. Diplomatic fraud and threats. Zhang Yi's diplomatic fraud against the state of Chu is a classic. And the "carrot + stick" strategy of playing and pulling made Han, Zhao, Wei and other countries want to stop under the PUA of Qin and be willing to be their pawns.
3. A plan of discord. Zhang Yi lobbied the king of Chu to sever diplomatic relations with the state of Qi, and let the coalition army withdraw from Hangu Pass, are these all because the enemy monarch is mediocre and bewitched by the Qin state? Apparently not. How could the monarchs of the six countries be all fools at the same time?
The reason why they consciously or unconsciously made a choice that was beneficial to Qin was the result of the Qin State spending a lot of money to buy and divide among the enemy monarchs and ministers.
4. Interests**. For the princes of various countries, they can still have some money in their pockets if they follow the Qin State, but they still have to pay money to resist the Qin State together. It is equivalent to a long-term investment with little risk but continuous investment, and the other is a short-term investment with high risk and quick money.
In this way, people are more likely to choose short-term investments with quick profits, which is due to human nature.
Thanks to these strategies, Lian Heng easily defeated the merger.
In addition to the fight and pull on interests. The reason why Lian Heng has succeeded again and again is also due to its underlying logic.
It's similar to a kind of prisoner's dilemma:
1. If everyone chooses to join forces to resist Qin, then everyone's interests will not be harmed;
2. If some of them choose to connect horizontally, then they will follow the Qin State to carve up the land of the Hezong country;
3. If everyone chooses to connect with the Qin State, then the Qin State will boil the frog in warm water and let the princes live in peace for a few more years.
To this is the premise that the princes do not trust each other and calculate against each other, and there is no such thing as the majority of countries choosing to join forces.
Then, if some countries choose to merge vertically, they will face the danger of being carved up by other contiguous countries. Therefore, it seems that it is the best choice to choose to survive for a few more years.
This is the reason why the princes of various countries are vying to "bribe Qin".
Therefore, the success of the Qin State lies in making full use of human nature. On the other hand, in today's world, doesn't Eagle Sauce also use this set to envelop other countries to become its eagle dogs?
Qin army chariot. So is there no solution to Lianheng?
Not really. In fact, at the beginning, Qi, Chu and other countries still had the strength to compete with Qin. If Qi and Chu can focus on maintaining public order, then there will be a new option for the prisoner's dilemma:Some of the princes chose to connect horizontally, and some chose to merge vertically. Under the leadership of Qi Chu, the Hezong State was evenly matched with the Lianheng State led by the Qin State, and the Qin State could not find any opportunity to attack the Hezong State.
Then, the prisoner's dilemma is broken.
In addition, there are other ideas for solving the problem:If the benefits of the anti-Qin war are shared with everyone in a timely manner and the profit-driving elements are added, the alliance will be closer and indestructible.
This point, Han Xin once had a very subtle discussion in "Hanzhong Pair" in front of Liu Bang:
Today, Wang Cheng can do the opposite: let the world be brave, why not punish! To seal the heroes of the world's cities, why not accept it! The people who returned from Sidong with volunteer soldiers, why not disperse!
The gist of it is: Now the king can really go the opposite way with Xiang Yu: appoint the world's brave and good fighting talents, what can not be destroyed? With the cities of the world to divide the feudal to the meritorious ministers, who is not convinced? With the army of justice, obeying the wishes of the soldiers to return to the east, what kind of enemy cannot be defeated?
It can be seen that if we can absorb and appoint a group of talents who can recruit and fight well, we will have the advantage of being the best; Then share the interests of the Qin State with the meritorious people, then the princes of the world will actively oppose the Qin State; If you obey the wishes of the princes and play the banner of justice, then the combat effectiveness will directly explode.
Therefore, as long as we work the use of talents, the sharing of interests, and the fairness of the people's hearts, it is not difficult to defeat the Lianheng with cooperation and build a new order in the world.