EnergyPlates: **SC), bitumen (BU), LPG (liquefied petroleum gas, PG);
At present, there is a marginal contraction on the supply side of the market, including OPEC+ production cuts and a cold wave in North Dakota. At the same time, there are no signs of recession in the overall economy, and the manufacturing and service PMI has appeared, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has no obvious negative impact on the market. Based on these factors, macro funds will be used as a multi-allocation variety for secondary inflation. The intensification of geopolitical conflicts may bring a higher premium to **. From a fundamental and non-fundamental point of view, ** is on the overall side and is expected to continue ** to the upper margin of WTI65-80 USD. However, it is important to note that geopolitical conflicts may bring a higher premium to **. Overall, the current contraction in supply and improved demand have supported the contraction of supply and demand, but it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts. New Fundamental Description: The current ** market is showing a gradual tightening trend on the supply side, mainly due to the implementation of OPEC+ production cuts and the decline in production caused by the cold wave in North Dakota, USA. At the same time, economic data showed a positive outlook for manufacturing and services PMIs, indicating a gradual recovery in economic activity, which supported the increase in demand. The expectation of interest rate cuts has little impact on **, and the market generally believes that ** is an investment variety that resists inflation. In addition, the intensification of geopolitical conflicts may increase the premium, further driving the impact of a combination of fundamental and non-fundamental factors, and it is expected that the market will remain strong and is expected to reach the WTI $65-80 level. However, it is important to keep a close eye on the potential impact of geopolitical conflicts on the ** market. Overall, the current supply contraction and improved demand have provided support, but geopolitical conflicts are still a risk factor that cannot be ignored. 
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Bitumen
The fundamentals of supply and demand remained stable, and there were no major changes in the asphalt market. Although asphalt is affected by the impact, supply is still increasing and demand is in an off-season state. The rain and snow weather and the shutdown of the Spring Festival have had a certain impact on demand, resulting in the inventory of the factory warehouse and the social warehouse in the accumulation channel. Asphalt is supported by the cost side, but it is relatively difficult. The short-term strategy recommends following the cost side of the ** and using the changes in inventory and production to carry out inter-month arbitrage. Medium and long-term observation of the support of resource diversion and asphalt cracking in Venezuela. The inventory pressure of the factory warehouse is relatively small, while the accumulation of the social warehouse is more obvious, which is mainly affected by the rain and snow weather. Overall, the fundamentals of the asphalt market are stable, and it is expected to change with the fluctuation of the cost side, and the operation idea is still based on capturing the range. 
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lpg:
The LPG market has had a good start during the Chinese New Year in the past few years**, mainly due to the pre-holiday short control and the improvement of mid-holiday fundamentals. However, a good start to the year is less likely** as it depends on whether PDH demand is released. At present, there is a difference between PDH profit and start-up, and the start-up situation still needs attention, and the downside is limited. The recent fundamental signals are mainly marginally positive, the trend of freight rates is suspended, and the margin of supply and demand of capacity is tightened. Although the spot volume has increased in the past two weeks, the probability of imported gas rising in the year-end stockpile** is higher over the years. The cold wave in the United States affected the production of **, the production of propane declined, while the domestic heating demand in the United States increased, the inventory pressure dropped sharply, the United States and Asia still have a high arbitrage window, exports remain at a super-seasonal high. Domestic demand also gave an upward signal. For the understanding of the March-April spread, the current spread has been sharply ** below -500, while the warehouse receipts remain low. The volatility of the difference between March and April this year has converged, mainly due to the increase in the number of cancellations and the improvement of the ability of industrial funds to process warehouse receipts. Considering the high degree of speculation on 03 and the uncertainty of warehouse receipts, it is more recommended to cash out long orders on 04 contracts. In general, the current LPG market is more tangled, and it is more of a state of grinding the bottom. While the demand side has improved marginally, tightening and energy have remained strong, there is still uncertainty about freight rates and spots. As a result, we don't think there's a bottom in our current position. Strategically, you can consider unilateral** and pay attention to the signal released by PDH demand. For the March-April spread, you need to pay attention to the trading risk. PDH profit positions can be reduced. To sum up, the fundamentals of the LPG market are complex. While there are some tailwinds, there are also some uncertainties. Investors should be cautious and develop strategies accordingly based on market conditions. 
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ChemicalsPlates: PTA (TA), Ethylene Glycol (EG MEG), Methanol (MA), Styrene (EB), Polypropylene (PP), Plastics (LLDPE PE), Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC V), Glass (FG), Soda Ash (SA);
pta, ethylene glycol,px:
In terms of PX and PTA, PX began to lose money in the short process, and the chemical profit was weaker than the adjustment spread, so it is recommended to continue to hold long orders in PX. PTA terminal is reduced in burden, and the end is expected to decline further due to the maintenance loss of large factories, and it is recommended to continue to hold PTA long orders. In terms of ethylene glycol, the MEG plant in the United States has been shut down, and the domestic coal-to-energy unit has been converted to EG, which is expected to be driven upward, and it is recommended to go long or match it with other products. Ethylene glycol is currently transitioning from contango to back structure, and it is expected that the ** process will be in the form of a gradual upward movement of the low point. Port inventories continued to deplete, and the arrival forecast increased slightly. Fundamentals: PX began to lose money in the short process, the economy of toluene and dimethyl oil blending rose, and the chemical profit was already weaker than the price spread of blending. PX has been converted to a back structure, and the domestic and foreign loads are split, and the upward elasticity of supply is limited. The PTA terminal has reduced its burden, and the first-class end continues to suffer more maintenance losses from large factories, and it is expected to decline further. Ethylene glycol was affected by the cold wave in the United States, many sets of units were shut down, and domestic coal-based plants were converted to EG production, but the volume was limited. The EG balance sheet is super-seasonal to Kulido, and the ** process is expected to be a pattern of gradual upward movement of the lows. The weekly data of ethylene glycol showed that the port inventory continued to deplete, and the arrival forecast increased slightly. To sum up, on the whole, the margins of PX and PTA are weak, and ethylene glycol is affected by many factors, but the EG balance sheet is ultra-seasonal to Cullido, and ethylene glycol is expected to continue**. New fundamentals: PX began to lose money in the short process, the economy of toluene and dimethyl oil blending rose, and chemical profits were already weaker than the oil price spread. PX has been converted to a back structure, and the domestic and foreign loads are split, and the upward elasticity of supply is limited. The PTA terminal has reduced its burden, and the first-class end continues to suffer more maintenance losses from large factories, and it is expected to decline further. Ethylene glycol was affected by the cold wave in the United States, many sets of units were shut down, and domestic coal-based plants were converted to EG production, but the volume was limited. The EG balance sheet is super-seasonal to Kulido, and the ** process is expected to be a pattern of gradual upward movement of the lows. The weekly data of ethylene glycol showed that the port inventory continued to deplete, and the arrival forecast increased slightly. To sum up, on the whole, the margins of PX and PTA are weak, and ethylene glycol is affected by many factors, but the EG balance sheet is ultra-seasonal to Cullido, and ethylene glycol is expected to continue**. 
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Methanol
In terms of thermal coal, it is expected to be weak and stable in the short term, but it is necessary to pay attention to the risk that Beigang coal inventory is lower than that of the same period last year. This can put some pressure on thermal coal, resulting in limited resilience due to the relatively weak demand for thermal coal. In terms of the methanol market, the mainland market is facing a situation of ** increase and weak demand. The resumption of production by enterprises in the southwest will increase the amount of methanol, while the demand side is relatively weak. Before the Spring Festival, there may be a final round of upstream and downstream games. In the port market, the strong basis has a certain supporting effect on the world. However, it is expected that after March, the market balance will weaken and the strong basis will not be sustainable. In summary, in the short term, it is recommended to take advantage of the strategy of high altitude or short allocation, and pay attention to the downside risk of costs and the expectation of a weaker balance sheet. Thermal coal is at risk of Beigang coal inventories being lower than the same period last year, but demand is relatively weak. The methanol market in the mainland has increased, the demand is weak, and the basis of the port market has strengthened to support the first. However, it is expected that after March, the market balance will weaken and the strong basis will not be sustainable. 
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Styrene
At present, the styrene market is dominated by bulls, and tension and cost are the main bullish factors. Matching the willingness to pay and the operating status of their respective downstreams, the structure of pure benzene has become stronger, while styrene has been relatively weaker. The market's confidence in pure benzene is higher than that of ethylene glycol, because there is a hard gap and a part of the downstream shutdown is needed to balance. Styrene adjusts quickly, but quickly after adjustment**. From the perspective of market mentality, the logic of long positions lies in the expectation of pure benzene ** limit and downstream improvement, and this logic has not been falsified. Therefore, the operation idea is to take a dip, but considering the bleakness of the downstream, you can take profit appropriately, and then go to the new ideal range. Overall, the fundamentals of the styrene market are optimistic, but it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the seasonal operating rate and ethylene** downstream.
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Polypropylene
The polyolefin market performed strongly this week, with oil + monomer remaining strong, but polyolefin margins falling sharply. Equipment maintenance has returned one after another, and PP and PE start-ups have rebounded month-on-month, but they still remain low. The downstream start of PP declined, and the demand for PE was strong against seasonality. The upstream inventory has been depleted at an accelerated pace, and the overseas market continues to be strong, but the domestic export transaction has weakened slightly. It is expected that the pre-holiday market will maintain a strong ** pattern. In the medium term, with the Spring Festival as an inflection point, it is expected that PP** will be short on high prices, and PE** will be much lower. It is recommended to pay more than one, pay attention to PE above 8400, and PP around 7700. In terms of arbitrage, LP05 contracted, and the medium-term expansion risk focused on the postponement of propane and PP production; MTO is compressed due to the strength of methanol, and the expansion of 05 remains unchanged in the medium term, and the compression of PE-3MA to about 800 can be considered for expansion. Overall, there is no obvious driving contradiction in the fundamentals of the polyolefin market, and it is expected to maintain a strong pattern before the holiday. The polyolefin market has been stable and upward this week, and the number of positions has decreased significantly, especially PP has seen a large number of reductions in Friday night trading, which has brought **obvious**. At present, both PP and PE holdings have fallen to very low levels in recent years. From a structural point of view, the basis is mainly positive, and the inter-month price difference is positive, PP59 to near Pingshui. In terms of fundamentals, the cost remained strong, and the profit of polyolefins increased slightly from the previous quarter, but it was mainly repaired in the monomer link; There are many unplanned maintenance of PP and PE, the restart time of some devices is delayed, and the focus of maintenance has declined but the operation is mainly low-level. In the downstream, PP starts continued to decline, and PE rose slightly, which was more consistent with the pre-holiday trend in previous years; destocking of PP and PE upstream and midstream; Overseas markets continued to be strong, but export transactions weakened slightly month-on-month after a slight strengthening in China. On the whole, the polyolefin market is driven upward in the short term, speculators can be long, and short-selling can be considered in the medium term, especially in the direction of PP years later. According to market observations, the polyolefin market performed strongly this week, with oil + monomers remaining strong, but polyolefin margins falling sharply. Equipment maintenance has returned one after another, and PP and PE start-ups have rebounded month-on-month, but they still remain low. The downstream start of PP declined, and the demand for PE was strong against seasonality. The upstream inventory has been depleted at an accelerated pace, and the overseas market continues to be strong, but the domestic export transaction has weakened slightly. It is expected that the pre-holiday market will maintain a strong ** pattern. In the medium term, with the Spring Festival as an inflection point, it is expected that PP** will be short on high prices, and PE** will be much lower. It is recommended to pay more than one, pay attention to PE above 8400, and PP around 7700. In terms of arbitrage, LP05 contracted, and the medium-term expansion risk focused on the postponement of propane and PP production; MTO is compressed due to the strength of methanol, and the expansion of 05 remains unchanged in the medium term, and the compression of PE-3MA to about 800 can be considered for expansion. Overall, there is no obvious driving contradiction in the fundamentals of the polyolefin market, and it is expected to maintain a strong pattern before the holiday.
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Plastic,pp:
The polyolefin market performed strongly this week, with oil + monomer remaining strong, but polyolefin margins falling sharply. Equipment maintenance has returned one after another, and PP and PE start-ups have rebounded month-on-month, but they still remain low. The downstream start of PP declined, and the demand for PE was strong against seasonality. The upstream inventory has been depleted at an accelerated pace, and the overseas market continues to be strong, but the domestic export transaction has weakened slightly. It is expected that the pre-holiday market will maintain a strong ** pattern. In the medium term, with the Spring Festival as an inflection point, it is expected that PP** will be short on high prices, and PE** will be much lower. It is recommended to pay more than one, pay attention to PE above 8400, and PP around 7700. In terms of arbitrage, LP05 contracted, and the medium-term expansion risk focused on the postponement of propane and PP production; MTO is compressed due to the strength of methanol, and the expansion of 05 remains unchanged in the medium term, and the compression of PE-3MA to about 800 can be considered for expansion. Overall, there is no obvious driving contradiction in the fundamentals of the polyolefin market, and it is expected to maintain a strong pattern before the holiday. The polyolefin market has been stable and upward this week, and the number of positions has decreased significantly, especially PP has seen a large number of reductions in Friday night trading, which has brought **obvious**. At present, both PP and PE holdings have fallen to very low levels in recent years. From a structural point of view, the basis is mainly positive, and the inter-month price difference is positive, PP59 to near Pingshui. In terms of fundamentals, the cost remained strong, and the profit of polyolefins increased slightly from the previous quarter, but it was mainly repaired in the monomer link; There are many unplanned maintenance of PP and PE, the restart time of some devices is delayed, and the focus of maintenance has declined but the operation is mainly low-level. In the downstream, PP starts continued to decline, and PE rose slightly, which was more consistent with the pre-holiday trend in previous years; destocking of PP and PE upstream and midstream; Overseas markets continued to be strong, but export transactions weakened slightly month-on-month after a slight strengthening in China. On the whole, the polyolefin market is driven upward in the short term, speculators can be long, and short-selling can be considered in the medium term, especially in the direction of PP years later. According to market observations, the polyolefin market performed strongly this week, with oil + monomers remaining strong, but polyolefin margins falling sharply. Equipment maintenance has returned one after another, and PP and PE start-ups have rebounded month-on-month, but they still remain low. The downstream start of PP declined, and the demand for PE was strong against seasonality. The upstream inventory has been depleted at an accelerated pace, and the overseas market continues to be strong, but the domestic export transaction has weakened slightly. It is expected that the pre-holiday market will maintain a strong ** pattern. In the medium term, with the Spring Festival as an inflection point, it is expected that PP** will be short on high prices, and PE** will be much lower. It is recommended to pay more than one, pay attention to PE above 8400, and PP around 7700. In terms of arbitrage, LP05 contracted, and the medium-term expansion risk focused on the postponement of propane and PP production; MTO is compressed due to the strength of methanol, and the expansion of 05 remains unchanged in the medium term, and the compression of PE-3MA to about 800 can be considered for expansion. Overall, there is no obvious driving contradiction in the fundamentals of the polyolefin market, and it is expected to maintain a strong pattern before the holiday.
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pvc:
The PVC market is currently facing a contradiction between supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating rate of PVC is relatively high, and there are still companies with plans to resume production next week, and it is expected that the start of production will be stable before the Spring Festival. However, as the Spring Festival holiday approached, factories were closed one after another, and domestic demand fell sharply. On the demand side, domestic downstream enterprises have insufficient orders, and only some export enterprises have performed relatively well. In addition, the international ethylene PVC international market has risen, and the peak demand season in India has also boosted export orders. On the whole, PVC** is currently mainly relying on macro expectations and export boosts, and domestic supply and demand are weak. Therefore, it is expected that the pre-holiday PVC will show a wide range. The fundamental driving factor is the downward trend in the operating rate after the holiday, otherwise the supply pressure will still be large. Strategically, it is recommended to adopt a reverse hedge structure, and the position can be closed between the 3-5 spread (-300, -250). In general, the PVC market is facing a contradiction between supply and demand, and volatility will be affected by changes in macro sentiment.
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Glass, soda ash
In terms of glass, the market has performed strongly recently, but the pessimistic expectations of the real estate industry have put some pressure on it. Although the purchase restriction policy has been relaxed in Guangdong, the demand for the real estate market has not been effectively released due to the weakening willingness of buyers who just need to buy houses and the cautious attitude of speculative groups. In addition, the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy may stimulate the demand for housing of non-target groups, but for the real estate completion side, the actual demand pull is limited. Therefore, I think it is still a more appropriate strategy to go to the sky. In terms of soda ash, the spot price has ended, and the supply has gradually recovered, which has turned the market sentiment to bears. As the downstream replenishment work nears its end, spot transactions** begin to fall. Although winter storage can alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in the off-season, due to pessimistic expectations for property sales after the Spring Festival, glass demand is likely to be lower than expected. Therefore, I think it is wiser to maintain a high-altitude approach. To sum up, whether it is glass or soda ash, fundamental analysis is pessimistic. Glass is affected by real estate policies and winter storage, and demand is expected to be poor; Soda ash demand is also likely to fall short of expectations due to the gradual recovery of supply and pessimistic expectations for property sales after the Spring Festival. Therefore, I think it is still a more appropriate strategy to go to the sky.
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