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On February 14, 2024, Indonesia is about to usher in a significant ** election. This is in one day, Indonesia will elect **, vice-president** and Legislative Yuan seats, as well as involving 20.4 billion people voter participation. Such a huge election effort, and the fact that 1.5 million of its staff members participated in the counting of votes, makes for one of the biggest election days in human history. However, in this fierce election campaign, we can't help but ask, what kind of forces are behind the warring parties? Will their struggle spark "anti-China" riots again?
This year's ** is different from the past, the strongest combination is no longer the confrontation between Jokowi and Prabowo, but the combination of Prabowo and Jokowi's son Jibran. Prabowo was supported by Jokowi voters. His background is very complex and he is one of the most conflicting candidates for Chinese. He was the son-in-law of Suharto, a former commander of special forces and is rumored to have played a major role in the 1998 campaign to slaughter China. Prabowo was once expelled from the army after Suharto**, but he served as defense minister in Jokowi** and represented the most powerful military in Southeast Asia. Prabowo represents a "conservative progressive" who aims to take the top position and continue to push Jokowi's economic advocacy and foreign policy. He hoped to develop foreign relations with the economy as the core.
Another candidate, Ganjar, is the candidate of Jokowi's Democratic Struggle Party. Although he has the second-highest support rating in the polls, he does not have Jokowi's support, but is controlled by Megawati, the leader of the Democratic Struggle Party. Megawati's goal is to create another Jokowi to perpetuate his political power. However, Megawati's move not only did not meet Jokowi's approval, but also aroused Jokowi's suspicions and even triggered political threats. This made Jokowi firmly support Prabowo's election. The least supported No. 1 combination is the extremely green combination of Anies and Mu Haimin.
Although the combination of Prabowo and Gibran looks very strong at the moment, they face various challenges in the actual struggle. First, they need to rally support among voters. Prabowo's past was linked to the massacre, which made his support in the Chinese community low. Especially in recent years, China's influence in Indonesia has increased, and the Chinese community's favorability towards China has also risen, which has affected Prabowo's image. In addition, Prabowo's political stance is ambiguous, and he is contested by both conservatives and progressives, making it difficult for voters to clarify his political stance and policy direction.
Secondly, Prabowo and Gibran will need to face the encirclement of other rivals. Although Ganjar does not have Jokowi's support, his approval rating in the polls is not low and he has a certain competitiveness. He comes from one of Indonesia's largest Islamist parties, which has earned him the support of a portion of the Muslim electorate. In addition, Megawati's Democratic Struggle Party, although it has not performed well in the past few years, its influence in Indonesia cannot be underestimated. The presence of these rivals will put Prabowo and Gibran in the face of fierce election battles and confrontations.
While there have been hate riots against Chinese people in Indonesia's history, the risk of a similar incident is low for now. First of all, Indonesia has made a lot of efforts in recent years to maintain social stability and avoid large-scale violence. Second, China's growing economic and political influence in Indonesia and deepening relations between China and Indonesia have weakened the influence of a tiny minority of pro-Western, anti-China forces. In addition, Prabowo and Gibran have relatively good relations with China, and they are more inclined to cooperate with China, which can also alleviate some of the disadvantages.
However, there are some potential risks that we cannot ignore. Indonesian society has a number of complex religious, ethnic and political issues that are likely to be exacerbated during the election campaign. Prabowo's past involvement in the massacre of China, as well as his image and prestige in society, could become a tool for some forces to incite anti-Chinese sentiment. Therefore, although it seems that the likelihood of another "anti-China" unrest in Indonesia** is low, we still need to remain vigilant and hope that Indonesia** will take measures to ensure the security and stability of the entire electoral process.
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